Wisconsin Basketball 2022-23

[LouisEly]

Northwestern is 16th in the nation if number of FGs given up per game, 12th in the nation in 2-point FG% (UW's bread & butter).  The only question is if they make their shots/free throws as they have one of the best defenses in the nation.

Last year Wahl shot 57% from 2-point FGs; this year he is 43%.  Last year he shot 70% from FTs; this year, 60%.  Something is wrong with him.

Similar with Crowl - last year he was 80% from FTs; this year, 60%.  Last year Hepburn shot 42% from 2-point FGs; this year, 34%. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

4 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Not necessarily to replace them, but the Badgers guards are tiny, Wahl isn't a very large forward, and Crowl isn't that much better despite being 7 feet tall. Then when one of those guys go to the bench...wowzer. 

That isn't to say they aren't good or aren't good defensively...but the Badgers have literally nothing on the team to come off the bench and they have no way to shake things up if Crowl/Wahl can't score on a more imposing big man or if they are struggling to defend one. 

Their two wins they have had since the losing barrage started...tiny teams. Pretty much every loss has come at the hands of teams running triple forwards. I didn't even look at comparing benches, which surely Wisconsin is always at a size disadvantage. No wonder they are getting outrebounded by large margins and often times allowing quite a few more FTs.

I'd love some quality size to come off the bench. But if Wahl returns you're in the same boat as last off-season---two starters returning. That didn't sit well with Basile or Vander Plas & I can't say I blame them. And Yalden & Winter are being added. Not that they'll immediately be world beaters, but that's two fairly well-regarded freshmen. Kids looking to transfer look at that stuff. I don't disagree (even another Vogt wouldn't hurt) but I think it would be a real tough sell.

I agree that Crowl took advantage of a size edge vs Penn State. He had a nice game vs Zed Key of OSU, who is 6-8 & thick but wasn't a big factor last week. Steven has had some uneven games but overall has taken a step forward this year, with the exception of his 3pt shot & FTs which have both gone south. He's stronger, and sometimes added bulk wreaks havoc with a kids' shooting touch until he gets comfy with it. Keeping my fingers crossed PSU defends him the same way they did in Madison.

[Jim French Stepstool]

4 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Northwestern is 16th in the nation if number of FGs given up per game, 12th in the nation in 2-point FG% (UW's bread & butter).  The only question is if they make their shots/free throws as they have one of the best defenses in the nation.

Last year Wahl shot 57% from 2-point FGs; this year he is 43%.  Last year he shot 70% from FTs; this year, 60%.  Something is wrong with him.

Similar with Crowl - last year he was 80% from FTs; this year, 60%.  Last year Hepburn shot 42% from 2-point FGs; this year, 34%. 

Like I mentioned in the previous post, Crowl has a new build this year. I think that has a lot to do with his subpar FT%, and a 3PT stroke that's looked downright ugly at times. Added strength can monkey with shooting touch.

As for Wahl, I don't know. If it's the ankle you just have to hope it gets 1-2% better every day, I guess.

Yeah, NW defended really well in both games.

[yourout]

I hope I have two new starters next year that are better than what they have now.

Klesmit needs to come off the bench.

[Brewcrew82]

43 minutes ago, yourout said:

I hope I have two new starters next year that are better than what they have now.

Klesmit needs to come off the bench.

Disagree on Klesmit. He's fine as a Gasser/Showalter type. He's also probably our best defender on the perimeter. Though, I'd love to know why he's suddenly decided to stop being the 80% FT shooter he's been over the course of his career.

It comes down to Wahl being more efficient on offense like he was last year. Tonight was a good start. Would also be nice if Chucky would hit a better % of his twos. 

They have some good opportunities coming up to get themselves on the right side of the bubble. Nebraska is a must win on Saturday. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

Terrific college hoops game between two teams that were in "desperately need a win" mode. Definitely earned this one. It seemed there were 4-5 instances in the game where I felt with one more stop we could maybe open up a 9-10 point lead and PSU would come down & hit a three, or get a layup. Finally had a couple rattle out late.

This is one of the few teams in the Big Ten where you feel like they aren't all that imposing at the 4-5 spot, so it was imperative to get some work done down low. Mission accomplished. If not for the foul trouble I think you could've gotten 18-20 from Crowl. As for Wahl, 16 w/6 boards is a very nice night. Throw in 8 assists & it becomes terrific. Hopefully this is a springboard.

All college hoops fans are familiar with their team signing a hot shot recruit who is supposed to be a great 3pt shooter. Sometimes they don't pan out at the next level due to lack of athleticism or ability to come off screens or whatever. But even when a kid like that pans out, you wind up hoping he can add to his game......ability to drive, finish through contact, etc. Most of them never add that extra dimension. That's why I'm so impressed with Essegian. He was little more than a perimeter shooter in November. He's now occasionally going to the hoop & tonight made a very very tough shot from the right post area while closely guarded. I'd have been happy if he showed some of this after a couple years & he's doing it about 20 games into his career. Just can't say enough.

Kudos to the bench, especially Jordan Davis.

I got to see PSU up close when they were in Madison. Don't know whether they'll be dancing this year, but I think Shrewsberry is a heckuva good coach.

[Jim French Stepstool]

14 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Disagree on Klesmit. He's fine as a Gasser/Showalter type. He's also probably our best defender on the perimeter. Though, I'd love to know why he's suddenly decided to stop being the 80% FT shooter he's been over the course of his career.

 

Klesmits' overall FG & FT% have suffered this season. I suspect the first is due to his facing much better defense than what he saw in the SoCon, and both--even the FT numbers--can be attributed to the energy he expends on the defensive end. I agree he's our best backcourt defender. Kid works his butt off; I suspect that takes a lot out of him.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Yeah, the Badgers are shaping up to have a weird, weird resume. Home losses but road wins. NET in the 70s, but 6-6 in Quad 1. All losses in the top 2 quadrants.

I'm actually pretty surprised they aren't in Last 4 In/Last 4 Byes territory in most of the prognostications. 6 Q1 wins is so, so many, and there just aren't bad losses, really. They've lost games by big margins and almost never win by big margins, so the computer numbers are bad, but the NCAA committee usually cares a lot more about your opponents' NET than your own. 

Basically, I think the national bracketology brigade is missing something. Obviously, team is on the edge, but I'd have them much closer to the field than they currently are, even at Bracket Matrix.

[Jim French Stepstool]

17 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

Yeah, the Badgers are shaping up to have a weird, weird resume. Home losses but road wins. NET in the 70s, but 6-6 in Quad 1. All losses in the top 2 quadrants.

I'm actually pretty surprised they aren't in Last 4 In/Last 4 Byes territory in most of the prognostications. 6 Q1 wins is so, so many, and there just aren't bad losses, really. They've lost games by big margins and almost never win by big margins, so the computer numbers are bad, but the NCAA committee usually cares a lot more about your opponents' NET than your own. 

Basically, I think the national bracketology brigade is missing something. Obviously, team is on the edge, but I'd have them much closer to the field than they currently are, even at Bracket Matrix.

My gut tells me they probably should be viewed as slightly on the outside right now but admittedly I don't pay a ton of attention to the bracketology guys. Lunardi has a really good track record & I think he had them next four out before the PSU game. I suspect that'll bump provided they take care of biz in Lincoln.

The resume IS kinda weird, I guess. Just one of the close league losses being flipped would make things look a whole lot better. Then there's the 1 point KU loss which at the end of the day might be a net positive. I'd guess 3-4 more wins gets them in. Is the health factor still a thing? In that case Wahl being back would be a positive. I know that's hurt/helped teams in the past.

 

 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

9 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Is the health factor still a thing? In that case Wahl being back would be a positive. I know that's hurt/helped teams in the past.

 

 

I think it hurts (or cancels out) that they haven't played much better since Wahl's return. Maybe a team like Creighton, who went like 0-6 while its best player had mono and is now one of the hottest teams in the country since his return, gets an injury consideration. Usually, if I remember, health impacts seeding but not the binary "in-or-out" decision. I guess it also works the other way with Wisconsin too--the win at Iowa was a Keegan-Murray-less win.

Teams without bad losses and a 6-6 Q1 record are just usually in really safe territory. A lot can happen between now and then, and we're still in that weird, transitional moment where you never know how much the committee, as a whole, is going to value predictive vs results-based metrics, but, if I could place a futures wager on Wisconsin qualifying for the NCAAT, at a little better than even money (which is what it looks like that would be based on Bracket Matrix), I think I'd get good value there.

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

 Usually, if I remember, health impacts seeding but not the binary "in-or-out" decision.

The UW team that made the tourney in '94, I seem to remember rumors to the effect that Rashard Griffith being healthy after some in-season issues (supposedly) being a factor. That team was 17-11. Of course the criteria wasn't as exacting then.

Michigan has some "weirdness" to its' resume as well, the loss to Central Michigan sticking out.

[MrTPlush]

The Badgers home record is pathetic. 6 Q1 wins is cool and all…but go look at where all the other 7-4 8-5 etc home record schools are. They are also not in the bracket picture. The absolute worst things you can do is lose at home.

The quadrant thing is pretty overdone anyway for major conference teams. The Badgers opportunities to actually get a Q3 or Q4 loss is nearly impossible outside of the mid majors. The bad teams in the major conferences get propped up big time. If the Badgers played the Minnesota game this week, it wouldn’t even be a Q4 loss…Nebraska wouldn’t even be a Q3 loss.

Badgers need at least four wins…but even that is really skirting along the bubble and very well possible on the outside looking in. If they go 4-3 and lose to both Purdue/Rutgers…what’s so impressive? I’m guessing they would be in the same position as they are now and need some defining win in the B10 tourney to get a spot.

[LouisEly]

18 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

The Badgers home record is pathetic. 6 Q1 wins is cool and all…but go look at where all the other 7-4 8-5 etc home record schools are. They are also not in the bracket picture. The absolute worst things you can do is lose at home.

And the best thing you can do is win on the road or neutral sites, especially against non-conference opponents.  The road win against Marquette and the neutral site wins over USC and Dayton are looking pretty good and help elevate the SOS of the Big Ten.  Not sure if I'm missing something, but I only see four home losses and all are to teams that are projected to be in the tournament (Wake is bubble - in some, first out others, but 8-6 in the ACC usually gets you in).

[MrTPlush]

2 hours ago, LouisEly said:

And the best thing you can do is win on the road or neutral sites, especially against non-conference opponents.  The road win against Marquette and the neutral site wins over USC and Dayton are looking pretty good and help elevate the SOS of the Big Ten.  Not sure if I'm missing something, but I only see four home losses and all are to teams that are projected to be in the tournament (Wake is bubble - in some, first out others, but 8-6 in the ACC usually gets you in).

They only have 7 home wins, for a 7-4 overall record. That’s pretty bad, especially considering how many mid majors teams tend to play at home. I don’t think there is a team with a comparably bad home record in the bracket picture right now. I could have missed someone, but I didn’t see any. Their road record is decent, but 4-4 isn’t exactly earth shattering. Pretty average for many of the tourney teams. Certainly they nabbed a handful of neutral court games early on.

They are on the bubble as is…and I don’t think coasting to a 4-3 record the rest of the way is a great way to get off the wrong side of that bubble. 

[Brewcrew82]

4 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

They only have 7 home wins, for a 7-4 overall record. That’s pretty bad, especially considering how many mid majors teams tend to play at home. I don’t think there is a team with a comparably bad home record in the bracket picture right now. I could have missed someone, but I didn’t see any. Their road record is decent, but 4-4 isn’t exactly earth shattering. Pretty average for many of the tourney teams. Certainly they nabbed a handful of neutral court games early on.

They are on the bubble as is…and I don’t think coasting to a 4-3 record the rest of the way is a great way to get off the wrong side of that bubble. 

Home record matters very little to the NCAA Selection Committee compared to road/neutral record and wins vs. Quad 1 teams. Badgers are in good shape with their quantity of Quad 1 wins (particularly road wins against Marquette and Iowa), though their profile is dragged down by their relatively lackluster efficiency metrics. Which is why they are where they are right now, somewhere in the last 4 in/first 4 out.  

[yourout]

None and done this year.

Just not enough talent.

[Jim French Stepstool]

The comeback in the second half.......obviously Tominaga got hot, which he is prone to do. He hit some open looks, and he hit some that were well-guarded. Even the cold spell by UW that accompanied it, is something you could almost expect after the way they shot it in the first half. What bugged me was the handful of Nebraska possessions in that stretch I like to call Hoiberg specials--really dumb low-percentage shots--that were missed, but they secured the rebound & got points. THAT'S what you can control to stem a rally, and we didn't. It's been a problem all year. Other than that, almost every shot from behind the arc we had in the 2nd half was a good look; you just seldom if ever see a team knock them down at a high clip for 40 minutes. That's why you want to have a post presence. We had one in State College & today it disappeared.

The last possession in regulation couldn't have been much uglier. And if Hepburn made the shot it still would've been ugly, just with a positive outcome.

We're talking about a 68-team tournament. They have enough talent to at least make the field. But with the lack of depth the consistency needs to be somewhere far north of where it has been.

[yourout]

Shaping up to be one of the worst UW men's sports school year in many many many years.

[MrTPlush]

Don’t worry, it’s just a Quadrant 2 loss. 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

2 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Don’t worry, it’s just a Quadrant 2 loss. 

I mean....this is true, though.

Look, I get it. The Badgers aren't that good. They're wildly inconsistent, and their offense is downright bad. BUT here's the thing: the NCAA tournament committee is not watching them night in and night out and tracking every possession.

The big things the committee sees are Q1 wins, bad losses, and road/neutral record. By those metrics, the Badgers are in better shape than they have any right to be.

Of course, at some point, loss volume becomes a deal breaker. I think 4-2 with a tourney win gets them in. We'll see.

It's an average team that plays a ton of close games and can't shoot free throws. But that's college hoops. Get hot for the right ten game stretch, and you're among the "best" 16 teams in the sport.

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

I mean....this is true, though.

Look, I get it. The Badgers aren't that good. They're wildly inconsistent, and their offense is downright bad. BUT here's the thing: the NCAA tournament committee is not watching them night in and night out and tracking every possession.

The big things the committee sees are Q1 wins, bad losses, and road/neutral record. By those metrics, the Badgers are in better shape than they have any right to be.

Of course, at some point, loss volume becomes a deal breaker. I think 4-2 with a tourney win gets them in. We'll see.

It's an average team that plays a ton of close games and can't shoot free throws. But that's college hoops. Get hot for the right ten game stretch, and you're among the "best" 16 teams in the sport.

 

There's a lot to this. In their infinite search for TV $$$ & the flawed idea that "more is better", the NCAA has created a tournament that contains a number of teams in its' final handful of at-large qualifiers that are flawed in one way or another.

There's certainly ample opportunity for them. The sticking point is they haven't, for over a month now, shown any propensity to put together the consistency needed to take advantage. Again, the defensive rebounding is flying under the radar a bit but it's been a big problem. And the bench situation is causing some major minutes to pile up from the starters.

[LouisEly]

They have some work to do.  Also depends on what the other bubble teams do.  If Oklahoma State/Boise State/North Carolina/Kentucky/Texas A&M/Seton Hall/Oregon all falter down the stretch and USC and Wake Forest, while also bubble teams, get hot that will help.  Need the regular season winners in the non-P5 conferences to win their tourney too.

Kentucky & Florida lost yesterday, Texas A&M beat LSU on the road though.  Oregon lost, UNC and Wake won, Oklahoma State won at Iowa State, which was probably the worst thing to happen to UW this weekend.

[yourout]

Man this team is hard to watch.

Playing hard but they're just not very good.

[yourout]

Collapse is underway. Will be trailing by the time it hits the under 4

[yourout]

Didn't score a basket the last 11 minutes of the game but did enough at the free-throw line to get the win.