Article: Brice Turang vs. Kolten Wong and What the Brewers Knew

[Tim Muma]

Kolten Wong quickly became a fan favorite with the Milwaukee Brewers. The veteran second baseman had plenty of great moments with the Crew, but GM Matt Arnold felt it was time to move on before the 2023 season, with rookie Brice Turang waiting in the wings. That looks, at the moment, like a wise decision.

Image courtesy of © Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports

It took many in baseball by surprise when the Brewers exercised Kolten Wong's $10-million player option for 2023. Between the price tag and his decline on both sides of the ball, most felt the money and roster spot could be better used elsewhere. Less than a month later, the Brewers traded Wong to the Seattle Mariners for Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro. That opened the door for many possibilities at second base, but the Brewers didn't decide to which they would commit until days before the season began.

The answer came in the form of their highly-touted prospect, Brice Turang. The 23-year-old rookie made his major-league debut at Wrigley Field on Opening Day, starting at second base and hitting ninth. A few days later, Turang blasted his first career homer, a grand slam in the Brewers' home opener in front of his family. That's how you start a career, and he has continued to be a major upgrade over Wong through the club's first 19 games.

Everyone knows we're talking about an extremely small sample, but even the eye test shows you how much more explosive and athletic Turang is compared to Wong--in the field, at the plate, and on the bases. Let's start on the defensive end, where Wong quickly turned from a Gold Glove second-sacker into a liability. 

Among the 25 second basemen with 600+ innings at the position in 2022, Wong ranked last in Outs Above Average (OAA) and fielding percentage, and tied for 13th in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). It was apparent to the naked eye that Wong lost a step or two, and had more trouble collecting grounders and throwing accurately than ever before. This was a trend over the past three full seasons.



With the new shifting rules coming in 2023, it looked like it could be a disaster to keep Wong at second base. Instead, the Brewers turned to Turang, who already had a terrific defensive reputation as a shortstop in the minors. It's already been clear how much more ground Turang covers, and his stronger arm gives Milwaukee an edge at the position. According to Statcast, Wong had the weakest arm among the 70 players who made at least 100 throws as a second baseman in 2022. If you want to compare the stats in 2023, Turang is tied for first among 22 qualified second basemen in DRS (2), while Wong is last at a -5 DRS. They're even in OAA, and Turang has zero errors compared to Wong's one.

Again, it's extremely early. But in terms of practical value in a limited-shift world, it's Turang by a mile. Take Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games (UZR/150), which tries to measure defense as a whole, taking into account things like range and double-play ability. Turang's UZR/150 is third (5.6) in baseball at second base, while Wong's -7.7 is 13th. Zero is considered average. Turang is anything but average in the field.
 

Brice Turang makes it look easy ?

(via @BallySportWI) pic.twitter.com/6HKY2B9nlb

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) April 19, 2023

 

Brice Turang is crazy good at defense!

pic.twitter.com/3Wrzq7npNe

— Tyler Koerth (@TylerKoerth) April 12, 2023

Turning to the offense, Wong had the two best seasons of his career with the Brewers, if you go by OPS+. He hit a career-best 14 homers in 2021, then 15 the following season. Still, many of the other numbers showed warning signs, such as his HardHit% dropping nearly eight percentage points last season; his average exit velocity falling more than one MPH; and his strikeout percentage (K%) being the worst of his career. So despite the appearance of another strong offensive campaign in 2022, a dropoff was clear, especially at 32 years old. Would you expect a player on the wrong side of 30 to build upon his "peak" offensive seasons? If you trust the 2022 Statcast figures, you would understand. Lots of blue in important areas.



Meanwhile, Turang had question marks about his offense over the years, particularly in the power department. He took significant strides last season in Triple A, hitting 13 home runs (six was his previous high) with a .360 OBP and 34 stolen bases in 36 attempts. Turang might never be an elite hitter, but he gives you quality at-bats and could accurately be described as a "gamer," someone who grinds for personal and team success. Still only 23 years old, Turang is heading in the opposite direction of Wong, with the potential to make most other clubs jealous as he adds more consistent pop to his eye at the dish.

Admittedly, he isn't hitting many balls on the screws (30th percentile in HardHit%) at the moment, though he has come up with a handful of clutch base hits. In the recent sweep over the Mariners, Turang hit a pinch-hit homer in game one that pushed the Brewers' lead to three runs in the seventh inning, one frame after Seattle cut the deficit to two. Then on Wednesday, with the bases loaded, Turang ripped a two-out, two-run single to left field to swing a 2-1 Mariners' lead into a 3-2 Brewers' advantage. It was a huge base knock following Christian Yelich's strikeout, and the Brewers tacked on two more runs en route to a 5-3 victory.
 

Brice Turang go-ahead knock in the seventh! pic.twitter.com/20og1c7MCl

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 19, 2023

Turang might not be lighting the world on fire in 2023, but he's held his own and is running circles around Wong at the plate (yes, a small sample).

• Turang: .264/.328/.396/.724 (98 OPS+)
• Wong: .098/.190/.098/.288 (-13 OPS+)

And let's not ignore the baserunning when comparing Turang to Wong. Last season, Wong ranked 459th in Statcast's sprint speed at 26 feet/second. That was in the 21st percentile in baseball (he is in the 52nd percentile in 2023). Turang sits in the 97th percentile across MLB this year, tied for 10th at 29.4 feet/second. That kind of speed puts pressure on the defense that can lead to infield hits, errors, and runs that otherwise wouldn't happen.

Add all of this up, plus the price difference (about $9 million less for Turang), and the Milwaukee Brewers look like geniuses to open the 2023 season. There's a long way to go, and Turang will see peaks and valleys, but there's almost no comparison right now between the Crew's youngster and the veteran he replaced.

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[Brock Beauchamp]

Awesome piece. Getting away from Wong turned out to be the right decision in the early going. 

[wallus]

I feel bad for KW, he was a good player and teammate while he was here.