Article: Willy Adames's Plate Discipline, Walks Aiding Brewers Offense

[Tim Muma]

Baseball is a game of constant adjustments, based on both your own skills and the strategy of the opposition. The Milwaukee Brewers' Willy Adames appears to be altering his approach at the plate in 2023 to be more selective, and to make the pitcher come to him in most at-bats. Will it pay off for him and the team in the long run?

Image courtesy of © Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Even before looking at the stats, Willy Adames's patience at the dish was quite noticeable in the first few weeks of the season. His improvement in that area significantly impacted the Brewers' hot start. It's also intriguing, because some players have trouble changing their hitting style once they've achieved some MLB success. Of course, for those always looking to take things to the next level, plate discipline can develop for players as they gain experience. At younger ages and lower levels of pro baseball, hitters can be free-swingers, with pitchers catching a lot of the plate with less velocity and movement or being so wild it's easy to take pitches out of the zone for balls. Learning to be selective against pitchers who throw hard, have multiple pitches they can throw for strikes, and always have a plan to get a batter out is a more difficult process, and there's no surefire way to do it without getting a prolonged look at those advanced hurlers.

The basic stats jump off the page and tell of Adames writing a new chapter as a hitter, at least through the first 24 games. Adames entered Wednesday afternoon's game with a .371 OBP, a marked improvement over his .325 career mark. Last season, he finished with an unsightly .298 OBP. His best season (.348) came in 2018, across just 85 games. Of course, when Adames came to the Brewers in July of 2021, he posted a .366 OBP in 95 contests. 

Adames' jump in OBP (yes, small sample) has been helped by his batting average being 18 points higher than last year. However, his increase in walks is the main driving force. Entering play Wednesday, Adames leads the Brewers in walks and ranks sixth in MLB, with 17. He would rack up 106 walks at that pace, if he plays 150 games. His career high is 57, so that's unrealistic, but it's a great sign. Adames is miles ahead of his career average and career-best seasons in walk percentage (BB%) and strikeout percentage (K%) thus far.



Adames's progress in these areas isn't a coincidence. As noted, the eye test said he was doing a better job of laying off the junk and being selective in the strike zone to make more frequent contact on pitches over the plate. Looking at his plate discipline figures since 2021, Adames is swinging slightly less often at pitches outside of the zone (O-Swing%) but more often than his career average. On the flip side, Adames is swinging less often at pitches in the zone (Z-Swing%), leading to his best contact percentage at those offerings (Z-Contact%). Interestingly, pitchers are throwing far fewer pitches over the plate (Zone%) to Adames this season, though that statistic (being beyond his direct control and prone to in-season fluctuations) might not yet have much meaning. Here are the numbers:



Again, Adames isn't swinging that much less at pitches off the plate, but because he's seeing many more balls in those chase locations, it's leading to more balls. Meanwhile, his added contact on pitches in the zone naturally leads to fewer strikeouts. While he will still have some poor at-bats where contact escapes him (see Tuesday night's eighth-inning plate appearance, with the tying run in scoring position), Adames has done a better job of putting the ball in play when it matters. 

The one potential downside to Adames's combo of patience and increased contact in the strike zone could lie in a lower exit velocity. He is currently in the 23rd percentile for average exit velocity, and 53rd for maximum exit velocity, according to Baseball Savant. He was in the 48th and 69th percentiles, respectively, last season. It could be that he's altering his mechanics and shortening his swing too much in certain situations, thereby missing out on chances to drive the ball. Again, it's early, and the goal for Adames will be finding the balance between patience and contact with aggressiveness and power.

In the long run, the Brewers should benefit from Adames improving his plate discipline and forcing pitchers to throw more strikes. If he will be hitting second or third in the lineup, Milwaukee needs an OBP well above his 2022 level. If he can find a way to keep his OBP around .340 while also hitting 30 homers, the Brewers' offense will have acquired a more consistent weapon to help carry the lineup in 2023.

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[Brock Beauchamp]

If Adames benefits from the shift restrictions a little while also keeping his BB% over 10%, it completely changes his profile as a player. It could take him from "good player but with serious question marks on the aging curve" to "legitimate top-five SS in baseball".

[Harold Hutchison]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

If Adames benefits from the shift restrictions a little while also keeping his BB% over 10%, it completely changes his profile as a player. It could take him from "good player but with serious question marks on the aging curve" to "legitimate top-five SS in baseball".

Which makes extending him almost impossible.

[MrTPlush]

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

If Adames benefits from the shift restrictions a little while also keeping his BB% over 10%, it completely changes his profile as a player. It could take him from "good player but with serious question marks on the aging curve" to "legitimate top-five SS in baseball".

His slugging is down even farther than last year though. Upped his OBP just to drop the SLG. Currently a bit of a net gain, but I really doubt Adames morphed into a 17% walk guy....so it feels like a wash. Then you have his defense. Is he actually that elite like last years metrics showed...or is he a little more human?

Of course one big game and the slugging skyrockets. We shall see how he is come July and then the end of the year. Hopefully he can walk like he did in '21, strikeout sub 25%, and keep his average near .250.  If he does that, he can probably consistently flirt with a .800 OPS or slightly above. Maybe not elite....but a very good player.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

His slugging is down even farther than last year though. Upped his OBP just to drop the SLG. Currently a bit of a net gain, but I really doubt Adames morphed into a 17% walk guy....so it feels like a wash. Then you have his defense. Is he actually that elite like last years metrics showed...or is he a little more human?

Of course one big game and the slugging skyrockets. We shall see how he is come July and then the end of the year. Hopefully he can walk like he did in '21, strikeout sub 25%, and keep his average near .250.  If he does that, he can probably consistently flirt with a .800 OPS or slightly above. Maybe not elite....but a very good player.

For sure. I think it’s incredibly unlikely Adames literally doubles his walk rate year over year but my biggest knock against him has been the fear of what happens to a free-swinging highly-athletic player once they lose half a step and the bat slows a little. 

[igor67]

The current profile is much better offensively. That said his walk rate will likely go down some, but probably remain notably higher. He is still hitting for a healthy amount of power, so it's not like he is suddenly going to get challenged more. It also doesn't seem like nearly as extreme as some of Yelich's changes that ended up really messing him up from his MVP years.