Bizarro World- MLB Payroll Top 10 Worse than Bottom 10

[rickh150]

For the first time than I can remember… maybe the last 25 years at least, I see the biggest payrolls in baseball (top third)doing worse (4 teams in playoffs) than the smallest third (5 teams). And it is June 8! This is simply amazing to me. Let’s take a look.

The top payrolls: Mets, Yankees, Padres, Phillies…. Out of this group, only one (Yankees) makes the playoffs on June 8. Together their record is one above .500. Each could still be in the playoffs yet with strong finishes but no first place teams here.

If you take the top 10 payrolls….. Mets, Yankees, Padres, Phillies, Dodgers, Angels, Blue Jays, Braves, Rangers, Red Sox (51 games over .500 combined on June 8), only count ‘em 4 teams would be in the playoffs at year’s end (Yankees, Dodgers, Braves, Rangers).

The bottom payrolls:  Oakland, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay…. Out of this group, three (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Tampa) make the playoffs on June 8! Wow! 
Looking at bottom 10 payrolls….. Oakland, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Cincy, KC, Cleveland, Miami, Washington, Arizona- a combined 47 games below .500- 5 teams make the playoffs (Balt, Pitts, TB, Miami, Arizona).

Overall, I find this fascinating. That small markets can compete and thrive in a no salary cap, crazy FA contract world says something about the system. Also to note, all of those top ten payroll teams COULD STILL play themselves into the playoffs. The Red Sox are .500 and only 5 games back of the AL WC#3. Every other top ten payroll team is WITHIN 5 games of the playoffs or in the playoffs on June 8. This cannot be said for the bottom 10 payrolls as some are out of contention already (Oakland, KC, Washington).

 

 

 

[rickh150]

Top 10 Combined Payroll- $2,392,000,000 (almost 3 times the payroll of bottom 10)

Bottom 10 Combined Payroll- $877,000,000

[TURBO]

I'll be able to jump on board, but only if this looks the same at the end of the season, which it won't...

[jay87shot]

Lower markets can compete but the problem is only for so long, every 3-5 years a higher performing lower market team has to develop a new team. You can stay competitive but just not with the same base, lower market teams have to hit on trades to send quality players to those big market teams to stay competitors (IE the Rays). The alternative is to go for it for a couple years maxing out a young cores timeframe add in some vets and then lose the young guys to free agency for nothing and face a long rebuild (IE Royals, Cubs (not that the cubs are a small market). 

[nate82]

Just now, jay87shot said:

The alternative is to go for it for a couple years maxing out a young cores timeframe add in some vets and then lose the young guys to free agency for nothing and face a long rebuild (IE Royals, Cubs (not that the cubs are a small market). 

The Cubs went we will kill our farm system and we don't care we want a WS!  The Cubs basically emptied their whole farm system for a one year run.  After that one year run that organization is in absolute shambles.  The scorched Earth tactic they did basically killed them from having a long run. 

Teams like the Yankees and even the Red Sox were able to both spend and develop players.  Some of the developed players were used in trades while others were kept.  The Cubs did a horrible job of developing players after their core came up.  It wasn't a really good strategy on their part for a long term run. 

The Royals on the other hand just lucked into two world series.  They didn't develop younger players and that is why their team just absolutely fell apart after the first world series win.  They had no plan and it is the reason why their GM then is not a GM right now.

Even large market teams need to churn out prospects.  Fortunately the Cubs, White Sox, Tigers, Phillies and Mets haven't figured this out yet.  The Yankees pivoted to a more prospect oriented organization after seeing the Red Sox have success and having the Rays being a pain.  The large market teams have an advantage of being able to keep the players they develop as the contracts are rather meaningless to them.  A Yelich contract wouldn't even be a concern for the Yankees as they have one in Stanton and another they released in Hicks.   While the small and mid market teams just can't do that as it would be a rather huge hole in their budgets. 

The Rays once they get a new stadium and hopefully are able to spend more will be more of a problem than the Yankees in the future if they continue to develop like they have.  Even if the Rays only improve their payroll to that of the Brewers that is a rather significant jump at about $50m.  That could be a big splash in free agency or a couple of extensions to players they already have. 

[jerichoholicninja]

A smart front office trumps a bottomless bank account. Say what you will about the Dodgers but it's their farm system and scouting that has them flush with talent not their checkbook.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The Cubs went we will kill our farm system and we don't care we want a WS!  The Cubs basically emptied their whole farm system for a one year run.  After that one year run that organization is in absolute shambles.  

Not exactly - The Cubs were set up incredibly well for an extended run of contention, and they did make the playoffs for several more seasons after their WS run, they just didn't win it all.  They didn't empty their farm system out all to win a WS title for one year - they made a move to get Chapman at the deadline that send Gleyber Torres to the Yankees.  What ultimately led to their fizzle was the huge contracts they gave to Lester and Heyward aged very poorly, their seemingly endless chain of young position player impact talent didn't live up to the hype, and they spent several seasons after the WS win emptying their farm system chasing veteran pitching and drafting very poorly.  Basically, Theo Epstein did the same thing to the Cubs that he did with the Red Sox after chasing a WS title to end a drought, and the Cubs didn't have deep enough pockets to complete a quick retool via free agency as what Boston did for their 2nd title 

[jerichoholicninja]

These are some the young players the Cubs traded to win a world series/stay/be competitive:

Paul Blackburn, Daniel Vogelbach, Gleyber Torres, Dylan Cease, Eloy Jimenez, Jeinmer Candelario, Isaac Paredes

Maybe not "emptying the farm" but that's a lot of pre-arb major league talent that could have helped the team.

[BruisedCrew]

I think the title of the article is a little misleading.

If the top 10 payroll teams are 51 games over 500 and the bottom 10 teams are 47 games under 500, it’s hard to say that the high payroll teams are “worse”. 

There is no question that the expanded playoff system has made it more possible for the small market teams to get into them. But, we will see how this plays out as the large market teams are usually better positioned to make deadline moves to improve their playoff position. 

[rickh150]

On 6/10/2023 at 2:38 PM, BruisedCrew said:

I think the title of the article is a little misleading.

If the top 10 payroll teams are 51 games over 500 and the bottom 10 teams are 47 games under 500, it’s hard to say that the high payroll teams are “worse”. 

There is no question that the expanded playoff system has made it more possible for the small market teams to get into them. But, we will see how this plays out as the large market teams are usually better positioned to make deadline moves to improve their playoff position. 

Hence the name Bizarro World…

Today, only 4 teams in bottom ten of payroll are in. Five teams in top ten are in playoffs… the 11th (SF) in as well. 

The list is balancing itself.