Article: 2023 MLB Draft Day 3 Thread

[Fear The Chorizo]

If I'm a high school pitcher with enough projectable talent that doesn't get drafted as high as I'd like for a big enough signing bonus, I'd think long and hard about going to a juco instead of a 4 year university so I'd be draft eligible the very next year instead of having to wait 3 more drafts to potentially get my name called again.

[nate82]

1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

If I'm a high school pitcher with enough projectable talent that doesn't get drafted as high as I'd like for a big enough signing bonus, I'd think long and hard about going to a juco instead of a 4 year university so I'd be draft eligible the very next year instead of having to wait 3 more drafts to potentially get my name called again.

The Brewers could also do a draft and follow if a player goes to a JUCO but they can only offer $250k anything over that it would go against what they have left in bonus pool.

[BrewerFan]

13 hours ago, madbad2000 said:

While there is no hard and fast rule for language usage in these situations, I would probably consider something like Relatively Signable to mean that the player places a dollar value on their talent and the team just needs to hit it.  Their preference is to sign, under this one condition.  There are players out there that place a higher value on their talent/college situation, such as mid-first round or first round value.  That makes them relatively unsignable since it's harder to meet those demands with cobbling together a big enough signing bonus package after playing the underslot manipulations.

Yeah, I understand signability and all that, I'm saying it's strange to me a highly ranked prep arm(or rated high enough) fell to the 11th round despite being considered "relatively signable." It was more of a rhetorical question, just seems like if he was open to signing and didn't have strong demands...he'd have gone earlier. 

He wasn't a top 50-100 prospect, so he likely knew he'd go between rounds 4-6? Just slot for the 179th pick would be ~350K. That's 200 vs the bonus? Or he was rated 105 by McDaniel, 205 by Perfect Games... I don't know, that's what I'm saying..."relatively signable," is kinda meaningless. It kinda all depends on where he thought he was gonna go, but he seems excited about getting drafted and I kinda get the feeling from this article that he may be open to signing;

https://www.newsandtribune.com/sports/baseball-floyds-letson-expected-to-be-selected-in-mlb-draft/article_d9fa079c-1d16-11ee-90a9-cf1b96afca51.html

[BrewerFan]

15 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

So, of all these HS draftees picked in rounds 11-20 (not just for the Brewers, but for many teams), if they don't sign now they'll all next be draft eligible three, 4, or 5 years from now depending on how their collegiate careers go.  Each of those draft years will also be filled up with a fresh group of high school talent along with other college players that may have developed into draftable players who weren't picked while they were in high school.  There are no guarantees with injury, development, and timing for most of these guys planning to wait for the next time they're draft eligible.

Particularly for high school pitchers that aren't considered top 200 talent in a draft year, it actually makes alot more sense to sign a professional contract now than roll the dice on improving their draft stock years down the road when the draft itself has been pared down to 20 rounds.

It can also be a year if you go to a Juco or 2 years if you're an older prep arm, but to your point, Jaden Noot I don't think ever really got into discussions with the Brewers, seemingly made his decision to go to LSU immediately last year and then...surgery, out for the year. Missed out on a year of development. He's still got two years left to get back on the mound and build up value.

Jurrangelo Cijntje is another guy. They ended up with roughly 300,000K and change away from going over the 5% of their bonus pool. So he could have signed for roughly 425,000 last year and like Noot, seemingly never considered it. Now he looks like he'll be a draft eligible Soph as a 20 year old Freshmen at Miss State, but he was the Bulldogs Friday Night Starter early on in the SEC season after having a solid start to the season...and he got banged around pretty badly. And it's not like LSU did the damage, it was nearly every outing once SEC play began where he was walking 5, giving up 5ERs or more.

 

I'm not suggesting either won't get picked up again. I actually think the nature of the draft makes College pitchers prime targets in rounds 5-10, especially for the Brewers the last couple years where they signed several for less than 100K or a little over 100K, but he likely passed up ~400K without really considering it(IIRC, both he and Noot announced almost immediately they were going to honor their College commitments). 

 

It's also worth noting Cijntje was racking up the strikeouts, so he has plenty of swing and miss, but he's a guy in particular that may have been best served turning pro and working with in the Brewers pitching lab. 

 

These kids are also competitors and extremely confident, or they wouldn't be sought after to begin with, so they're betting on themselves to go to these programs and thrive, but that's just clearly not always the case. I saw he matched up with fellow former unsigned picked Hunter Hollan and Holton from Ark and Vandy respectively. 

Hollan ended up going 76th to Cincy I believe while Holton has been very solid at Vandy and projects as of now, to be a top 20 pick according to some sites(though Cijntje is ranked as high as 65th from what I've seen for the 2024 draft).

So it's just such a mixed bag. I take your point, but I think even the talented prep arms that slide due to singability concerns will likely hear their name called again and get a shot in 2-3 years as long as they've got at least ONE pitch a team thinks they can build on. Look at the Brewers last few drafts. 

[Jim Goulart]

 

[SF70]

On 9/11/2023 at 6:51 PM, Mass Haas said:

 

Have to be happy with the early returns on trading Chambers to the LAD for Bryan Hudson. 

Dodgers scouts zeroing in on Justin tells me they see a future big-league starter, but that’s 4-5 years away and it looks like we have a nasty LH reliever for the foreseeable future.

[SF70]

What a draft-class.

Already have what appears to be a mainstay big-league reliever from this class (Hudson for Chambers).

I know the overall 2023 MLB draft class was quite possibly the most talented of all time, but wow, this team’s collection of talent, especially on the pitching side  is looking early on as being franchise-altering.

From Wichrowski-Knoth-Birchard-Letson to Manfredi-Timmerman-Yoho-Woodward. Then the 2 high-bonus HS arms currently in extended ST, Bjorn Johnson & Hayden Robinson. That’s a ton of pitching talent from 1 draft-class. 

Then add Wilken-Pratt-Boeve-Bitonti & Adamczewski positionally and you get a WOW from me!