Packers @ Falcons 9/17/2023 Noon Start

[BrewerFan]

First test, how can the Packers do vs the Bears? Obviously they passed. They dominated the OL, the DL. Jordan Love played an outstanding game...given all the pressure that was on him in his first start as the official starting QB for the Packers.

Now, despite Atlanta's poor record last year and Desmond Ridder as their QB, this game is going to be another huge test for Jordan Love.

Passing Game

• Aaron Jones and Christian Watson are ruled out for this game according to reports. Watson isn't a surprise, but Jones was thought to be a minor injury based on his own reaction and insistance he could have gone back into the Bears game. Those are the Packers two biggest threats offensive and Jones was clearly the guy who turned the momentum in the Week 1 win vs Chicago. Two long TD receptions, and 3 of his 9 runs went for 1st downs.
• With Watson out, AJ Terrell, an elite CB will be free to cover Doubs or Reed, but the real threat in this secondary is Jessie Bates, another AP caliber player. Coming off a Week1 performance where he accounted for 3 turnovers, 2 INTs and a FF.
• Up front, the Falcons aren't world beaters, but they're no slouches either. Grady Jarrett is an upper echelon DT(if we struggled in one area, it was on the interior, mainly Myers and JRJ). They also have vet Calais Campbell who's still productive. 
• Finally, the big one, David Bakhtiari is listed as questionable. I've been bullish on his recovery, but if we're at the point where he's not going to play in games on Turf, then that's going to be a significant problem. Rasheed Walker seems to have passed Yosh Nijman...a capable swing tackle, but Bakhtiari is an elite OT...when he plays. They can't afford for him to just not play in 5 of the 17 games. 

Summary;

While Love made enough plays, and was outstanding on 3rd/4th down, one game does not make a season. He's going to need to make tougher throws against a better secondary with less threat of a running game and without his two biggest weapons, plus, potentially, his best OL(though Zach Tom is giving him a run for his money). He's going to have to be better. He can't afford to miss throws or have mix-ups with Musgraves(who I think will have his sea legs under him) and we will need to rely heavily on Doubs, Musgrave and Reed with at least another WRer stepping up and contributing. I'd like to see that other WRer be Heath, but Kraft getting move involved would be good, or Wicks could take some pressure off. Toure is still a big question mark.

Run Game

• Pretty simple. Aaron Jones is one of the best backs in the NFL. His versatility overshadows his ability to make the right reads and pick up extra yards on the ground. 
• AJ Dillon who has been...lackluster as a back is going to need to have a big game. Atlanta is not great vs the run, but they're more stout up front, so maybe if Dillon gets into a groove and isn't rotating carries as much, he'll be a better fit.
• Patrick Taylor will again be elevated from the PS to serve as a 3rd RB, but he's extremely limited as a back and primarily in there for STs purposes. He runs hard, but he's not picking up more yards than what the play is blocked for.
• The only question that remains will be if Emanuel Wilson is going to be active for the game. Preseason is preseason, I get that, but the easiest transition from College to the NFL running the ball. It's more instinctual. The pass protection, everything else can be a bit more difficult, but he's an outstanding runner and I think if Jones is out, it'd be wise to keep Wilson active. I think Wilson could have a very good day on the ground. We'll find out how much the Packers trust him IF Jones is in fact out.

Summary-
Losing Jones is a huge blow in both facets of the game. Dillon or someone will have to come up big in order to open up the passing game. It's pretty cut and dry here. 

Run Defense

• EASILY the strength of the Falcons defense. Bijan Robinson is a special back. Elite quickness and explosive ability and runs like a much smaller back at 6' 225. The TD pass vs the Panthers showed how elusive he can be and how dangerous he is in the open field. Tyler Allgeier was a 1000 yard rusher as a rookie. And Cordelle Patterson is expected back for this game. The 6'4 former 1st round pick who was an AP as a Return man but has found his niche in Atlanta as a diverse back who's also extremely versatile out of the backfield. 
• Atlanta's got a very good OL, somewhat similar to the Packers. Two very good OTs in Matthews and McGary, an elite Guard in Lindstrom. They have a rookie at RT and a young Center who's performance has been uneven. But the unit as a whole is going to present a significant challenge to the Packers front.
• On that front, the Packers got some good news as Quay Walker has passed concussion protocol...and that's huge for the Packers who are going to need their MLBers to play sideline to sideline.
• Clark, Slaton, Wyatt are going to need to come up big vs the run. I wonder if this COULD be a game Ford gets elevated as well as Brooks and Wooden are best served as interior pass rushers at this point. 

Summary-
The biggest threat will be the Falcons three headed trio. The Packers were outstanding rallying to the ball and only saw a bit of a late letdown when the game got out of hand and Roschon Johnson led them on a scoring drive. That's going to be huge for this game. I suspect Van Ness will get a lot of snaps on early downs as he was reliable vs the run and while they'll rotate in and out, Hollins just isn't a very good run defender.

The Packers will need another big games from Savage as he played his best Football in 2 years. The way he was flying around out there. Quay Walker had the highest grade of any defender and this is the exact type of game they drafted he and Wyatt for. Gary will be on a pitch count meaning he won't be getting a lot of snaps on early downs, so the Packers will need to rely on LVN, Preston Smith and Enagbare to set the edge(which isn't exactly the strength of the later). 

The Falcons with the benefit of Kyle Pitts receiving ability played 3 TEs at least 25 plays last week and Pitts actually served as a willing blocker with Drake London, the 6'5 220LB WRer giving them a lot of size on the field and some creative schemes to get their RBs in space.

Hopefully DeVondre Campbell's homecoming, he'll play more like he did in '21 and the CBs can get off their blocks and also come rally to the ball. 

Like with Love, this will be a good test to see if the Packers defense has actually improved or if they just took the Bears lunch money again.

Passing Game;

• Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Mack Hollins, and the Scourge of Kevin King that is Scotty Miller make for an elite receiving group(particularly when Patterson, Robinson and Allgiers is factored in). The Falcons employed a 4 TE sets to throw and run with. Having the TE version of Calvin Johnson makes that a bit more feasible, but despite the size of their WRers, they were very rarely targeted. Desmond Ridder has a whole lot to prove, but he has the benefit of an outstanding group of skill players and a VERY good pass blocking OL.
• Why they don't do more with London or Pitts is beyond me(and apparently beyond much of the NFL).

Summary, despite personnel, this is the Falcons weakest group. They have passed on QB options early in the draft for the likes of Mariota and Ridder the past couple years, but despite the records, this is NOT a team devoid of talent. 

Rashan Gary is going to need to have another absolutely dominant game,

 

How the Packers win;

Bakhtiari plays, the OL performs as expected giving Jordan Love time to go through his reads and capitalizes on his opportunities. Musgraves down the sideline, they have to hit. Jayden Reed needs to continue to get open, but fight back for the ball better. More importantly, they had to take advantage of the Falcons front and stay ahead of the chains on offense.

And the biggest key is do NOT put the ball in position for an opportunistic Falcons defense to create turnovers. 

Team defense and intensity. Kenny Clark, Slaton and Wyatt need to force the plays outside where Van Ness, Smith and the LBers can come and clean up.

How the Falcons Wins-

I think this is a big more straight forward. Keep the Packers on their heels with their 3 headed rushing attack and when the Packers come up, they need to try and take a couple shots over the top. 

 

If the Packers win this game, I think it'll be on the strength of another very good day by Love and that defense. 

Prediction; ATL-23 GB17

I don't even want to make one. I'm still flying high on week 1 win and while this is a bad team on paper, Jordan Love is again without his two best weapons and there's no possible way the Packers give him as much time to throw...particularly without #69 out there. 

I hope I'm wrong and I may very well be overly pessimistic when viewing it from the lens of my own team. I hope that's the case and Love with the butterflies subsiding, is a touch more accurate and doesn't have 3-4 throws he wishes he could take back. 

I'll qualify my prediction by saying if Emaunel Wilson gets 8+ carries, I think the Packers chances improve substantially. If 2021 AJ Dillon resurfaces, all the better. But I don't think we can count on 2022-23 AJ Dillon and Patrick Taylor to carrying the run game. 

[HarryDoyle]

Hope they don't overlook this Falcons team. I think they are going to be better than the experts think. Bijon Robinson looks like the real deal.

[OldHeidelberg]

I am not too optimistic on this one, I am sure a lot of it is the bad injury news but starting off 2-0 on the road feels like too much for such a young team. I also hate our D against an elite RB, we always tackle poorly. Hopefully we get them in some 3rd and longs and get turnovers. Will Wilson be the #2 guy today or Taylor?

[homer]

Bakhtiari inactive

[HarryDoyle]

Looks like the defense is going to have to step it up and win this game. Does Barry have it in him?

[HarryDoyle]

As an aside, I wholeheartedly agree with Bakh that field turf should go the way of the dodo bird, but if he is inactive simply because he doesn't want to play on it then that is pretty selfish of him. Is he going to sit out every game where he's forced to play on it, including Detroit and Minnesota? The Vikings game is week 17 and could have huge playoff implications.

[homer]

Falcons are -3

I hope they overlook GB

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, HarryDoyle said:

As an aside, I wholeheartedly agree with Bakh that field turf should go the way of the dodo bird, but if he is inactive simply because he doesn't want to play on it then that is pretty selfish of him. Is he going to sit out every game where he's forced to play on it, including Detroit and Minnesota? The Vikings game is week 17 and could have huge playoff implications.

Honestly, if this is his intention, sitting out games that are on field turf, the Packers may as well look to trade Bakh before the deadline this season.  

It's frustrating enough for Packer skill position players to constantly have hamstring issues that wind up costing chunks of the season, but if it's gotten to the point where Bakh won't play on turf because of risk of reinjuring that knee I don't care how good he looks when playing sporadically - he's not reliable enough to be this team's starting left tackle, and he's likely as good as gone after this season anyway due to his 2024 cap # compared to what his dead cap # would be.

Just a shame that the Packers got so little production out of him following that contract extension.

And I'd add that even if Bakh sitting out today is due to a knee injury management issue and not just his preference of not playing on field turf - they just played a game on arguably the softest/slowest grass surface in the entire league at Soldier field in early September on perfect weather day - if Bakh can't go back to back weeks with 6 days' rest in between Sundays at the start of the season, then he truly is damaged goods and can't be relied on for any given game.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Starting LT, RB, and #1 WR out for week 2, on the road.

This will be tough sledding no matter what, hoping for any sort of a way to get a win, and defensive front needs to show up in a big way this afternoon!

[HarryDoyle]

A little trickery to start the game.

[Fear The Chorizo]

great start...not

how do you get a delay of game on a FG attempt in that spot??  On the heels of the backup LT putting that attempt over 50 yds with a false start penalty, no less...

[MrTPlush]

Good clock management MLF, how do you let that expire?

[homer]

just horrible coaching there 

[HarryDoyle]

Not sure what happened there. Did they have any intention of trying that field goal because if they did, that's a boneheaded mistake let the play clock expire.

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 minute ago, MrTPlush said:

Good clock management MLF, how do you let that expire?

That's 100% on the ST unit (holder/kicker)  - the kicker was taking ages to get himself set up for the attempt.

 

Frankly I'd rather they not burn a timeout in that spot, so I don't know if MLF was aware of the clock running down or not.  Just something that should never have to be worried about.

[OldHeidelberg]

They were standing there ready to snap for 7 seconds before and still 3 seconds after the clock ran out.

[HarryDoyle]

Way to step up, D!

 

[adambr2]

1 minute ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

That's 100% on the ST unit (holder/kicker)  - the kicker was taking ages to get himself set up for the attempt.

 

Frankly I'd rather they not burn a timeout in that spot, so I don't know if MLF was aware of the clock running down or not.  Just something that should never have to be worried about.

You'd rather have the extra timeout in your pocket than a chance at 3 points? In the first half? After years of seeing us randomly burn timeouts over whatever?

[MrTPlush]

1 minute ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

That's 100% on the ST unit (holder/kicker)  - the kicker was taking ages to get himself set up for the attempt.

 

Frankly I'd rather they not burn a timeout in that spot, so I don't know if MLF was aware of the clock running down or not.  Just something that should never have to be worried about.

It’s a basic coaching responsibility to be aware of the clock and cover your player’s butt’s.

Blame it in MLF…or the coaches standing next to him. There is no excuse to not be aware the kick is no where near being ready to get kicked.

[homer]

I was told Kenny Clark did not get pressure

[adambr2]

Other than the big PI on the flea flicker, nonexistent movement by the offense. 

[HarryDoyle]

This might be a long day for the offense. So far their best play is a drawn DPI.

[HarryDoyle]

BTW if Bakh is in there that doesn't happen.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Walker is going to get Love killed, and he's getting beat on run downs, too.

Just a thought - perhaps it's not the best idea to focus all of your runs and throws directed towards areas your backup LT has to be the focal blocking point.

[adambr2]

Quay tried to jump the pass and totally whiffed.