Brewcrew82’s 2024 Payroll Blueprint (2.0 Pre-Winter Meetings)

[Brewcrew82]

Signings:

-Justin Turner 1 year, 16 MM (They've been trying to sign Turner for years now. Now as good of time as ever. Bridge to Wilken and Black.)

-Wade Miley 1 year, 13 MM (Why leave a good situation? Might need to tack on an option year, but has proven to be a tremendous marriage.)

-William Contreras 5 years 87 million, 2027 team option for 15 MM (Cornerstone of next "run" extended for prime years alongside Chourio. Gets money similar to brother upfront at a time when we've just shedded Burnes/Williams/Adames salary in exchange for team friendly option and relief at end of deal when some of the younger guys will start getting increasingly expensive.)

Trades: 

-Randy Arozarena acquired from TB for Joey Wiemer, Garrett Mitchell, and Carlos Rodriguez (Need to face that we have a glut of OFers and the fact that not all of them are going to pan out. Wiemer, Mitchell, and Rodriguez give the Rays the cheap, controllable assets they so desperately crave and we get 3 of Arozarena's prime seasons to maintain competitiveness during transition. Basically, Adames trade redux) 

-Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames to LAD for Emmet Sheehan, Nick Frasso, Joendry Vargas (Burnes goes home and Adames solves the Dodgers' SS conundrum as they're desperate to cash in on Betts/Freeman few remaining prime years and prove 2020 wasn't a fluke. Sheehan takes Burnes' rotation spot and gives the Brewers the TOR upside they need alongside Misiorowski. Frasso starts in bullpen and gives them more young SP depth. Vargas pretty dang good "lottery ticket" who could eventually end up as the Brewers' next top prospect/SS of the future)

-Devin Williams and Hoby Milner to BAL for Joey Ortiz, DL Hall (Ortiz blocked in Baltimore and gets to replace Adames, while serving as a bridge to the 2023 draft guys. Brewers ask for Hall as they try go back to 2018 style bullpen and throw in Milner to ease loss. Devin gets to fill in the void currently left by Bautista and then later team up with Bautista to form the most dominant 1-2 punch in baseball,) 

• C: William Contreras ($10M)
• 1B: Justin Turner ($16M)
• 2B: Brice Turang ($0.77M)
• 3B: Tyler Black ($0.77M)
• SS: Joey Ortiz ($0.77M)
• LF: Randy Arozarena ($7M)
• CF: Jackson Chourio ($1.50M)
• RF: Sal Frelick ($0.77M)
• DH: Christian Yelich ($26.00M)
• Bench OF: Blake Perkins ($0.77M)
• Utility: Jake Bauers ($1.5M)
• Utility: Andruw Monasterio ($0.77M)
• Backup C: Jeferson Quero ($0.77M)*
• SP1: Freddy Peralta ($5.50M)
• SP2: Wade Miley ($13M)
• SP3: Emmet Sheehan ($0.77M)
• SP4: Adrian Houser ($5.60M)
• SP5: Colin Rea ($3.50M)
• CL: Trevor Megill ($0.77M)
• RP: Abner Uribe ($0.77M)
• RP: DL Hall ($0.77M)
• RP: Joel Payamps ($1.70M)
• RP: Bryse Wilson ($1.30M)
• RP: Elvis Peguero ($0.77M)
• RP: Nick Frasso ($0.77M)
• RP: Robert Gasser-6th starter ($0.77M) 

*Note: I don't actually think Quero is going to start the year in the majors due to service time considerations, but I do think he's going to get called up midseason and start sharing time w/ Contreras who helps with Yelich back management at DH. They'll sign a stopgap though I don't have a specific name to plug in. Don't think it's going to be Caratini. 

A roster that is competitive now and extremely competitive over the next 5-8 years. 

Payroll is 26.16% under budget

 

[wiguy94]

I don’t understand the thought process of trading for Arozarena if we are trading all 3 of Burnes, Adames and Williams. That’s not a good pitching staff. The bullpen would be asked to eat a TON of innings with that pitching staff.

[Brewcrew82]

47 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I don’t understand the thought process of trading for Arozarena if we are trading all 3 of Burnes, Adames and Williams. That’s not a good pitching staff. The bullpen would be asked to eat a TON of innings with that pitching staff.

As I explained above, you're cashing in on OF depth for a more surefire power upgrade and to maintain competitiveness during transition. I think Mitchell and Wiemer are the young guys most likely to bust due to K issues and we have Lara, Yophery etc. coming through the pipeline once Arozarena would reach FA. 

I wouldn't say that. Seems like a decent pitching staff to me. Young and unproven, but strikeouts will be there, especially from the pen. Freddy around a top 20 pitcher going forward as he hits his prime. Miley maybe takes a step back, but still hopefully gives you around 120-130 innings of sub 4.00 ERA ball. Sheehan your ascending stud. Houser and Rea steady presence at back of rotation. 

Maybe one middle of the rotation/innings eater short, but that's why you have Frasso, Hall, Gasser, and eventually Misiorowski (all starting prospects) coming out of the pen and/or acting as the 6th man. So, more like 2018 as we deal with the losses of Burnes and Woodruff. In an ideal world, I'd sign Bauer instead of Miley, but I don't know if they're willing to go there. 

[wiguy94]

7 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

As I explained, you're cashing in on OF depth for a more surefire power upgrade and to maintain competitiveness during transition. I also think Mitchell and Wiemer are the guys most likely to flop. 

I wouldn't say that. Seems like a decent pitching staff to me. Young and unproven, but strikeouts will be there, especially from the pen. Freddy around a top 20 pitcher going forward as he hits his prime. Miley maybe takes a step back, but still hopefully gives you around 120-130 innings of sub 4.00 ERA ball. Sheehan your ascending stud. Houser and Rea steady presence at back of rotation. 

Maybe one middle of the rotation/innings eater short, but that's why you have Frasso, Hall, Gasser, and eventually Misiorowski (all starting prospects) coming out of the pen and/or acting as the 6th man. So, more like 2018 as we deal with the losses of Burnes and Woodruff. In an ideal world, I'd sign Bauer instead of Miley, but I don't know if they're willing to go there. 

If you’re going full retool/youth movement like your plan suggests, I just don’t see the sense to trade 3 good value prospects/young players for a guy who doesn’t fit the rest of the team’s timeline. Would make more sense to use those assets to get someone who fits the rest of the core’s timeline. 

 

[wallus]

3 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

If you’re going full retool/youth movement like your plan suggests, I just don’t see the sense to trade 3 good value prospects/young players for a guy who doesn’t fit the rest of the team’s timeline. Would make more sense to use those assets to get someone who fits the rest of the core’s timeline. 

 

Yep, poor asset management.

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

If you’re going full retool/youth movement like your plan suggests, I just don’t see the sense to trade 3 good value prospects/young players for a guy who doesn’t fit the rest of the team’s timeline. Would make more sense to use those assets to get someone who fits the rest of the core’s timeline. 

 

If it was full-on youth movement/rebuild I would’ve traded Peralta and not signed Miley or Turner. Rather, this is simply more perpetual competitiveness and bites of the apple. Trade Burnes and Adames because they’re expiring assets, but get guys back who can help you now and set you up nicely for the future. Same idea with Williams

You don’t need someone who lines up perfectly with the rest of the core’s timeline when you also have Lara, Rodriguez, etc coming through and Black who could also be moved to an OF corner once Arozarena leaves in FA in 3 years. 

Meanwhile, if you believe as I do that Mitchell, Wiemer, and Rodriguez have serious bust potential, you’re cashing in before their value drops further. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, wallus said:

Yep, poor asset management.

No more than trading top value assets in Peralta and Williams to the Orioles for less than their full value to help ease the sting for Elias the prospect hoarder.

[wiguy94]

14 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

If it was full-on youth movement/rebuild I would’ve traded Peralta and not signed Miley or Turner. Rather, this is simply more perpetual competitiveness and bites of the apple. Trade Burnes and Adames because they’re expiring assets, but get guys back who can help you now and set you up nicely for the future. Same idea with William

You don’t need someone who lines up perfectly with the rest of the core’s timeline when you also have Lara, Rodriguez, etc coming through and Black who could also be moved to an OF corner once Arozarena leaves in FA in 3 years. 

Meanwhile, if you believe as I do that Mitchell, Wiemer, and Rodriguez have serious bust potential, you’re cashing in before their value drops further. 

14 of the 26 players have less than 1.5 seasons of service time. I feel like thst constitutes a youth movement when over half your players are rookies or second year players.

[Brewcrew82]

19 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

14 of the 26 players have less than 1.5 seasons of service time. I feel like thst constitutes a youth movement when over half your players are rookies or second year players.

Never said it wasn't a youth movement, but the strategy is still perpetual competitiveness/bites of the apple. It's transitioning while still being competitive, which Arozarena helps achieve. 

[wallus]

How many times does Justin Turner need to use us as leverage before you realize he isn't interested?