What Happened To Willy Adames?

[Michael Trzinski]

In 2021, Willy Adames was the toast of Brew City, and fans were anxiously waiting to see what their young superstar would do next. Fast-forward two years, and the Brewers almost can't get rid of him fast enough. Whatever happened to Adames?

Image courtesy of © Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

Willy Adames toiled for two-plus seasons at Tropicana Field in Tampa, before getting traded to the Brewers in May 2021. The shortstop had highs and lows during his Rays tenure, but flourished as a Brewer, hitting .285/.366/.521 in 413 trips to the plate. Things were looking up for both Adames and the Brewers. 

Prior to Spring Training in 2022, the Crew inked their star to a $4.6-million contract, avoiding arbitration. Adames went on to hit a career high in home runs, but his OPS+ dropped from 137 to 110. His walk rate dropped from 11.4% to 7.9%. His whiff rate went from 25.4% to 26.9%. By these metrics, it appeared he was being less selective in a tradeoff for power, as he hit 31 home runs, 18 of which were blasted out of Miller Park. 

Adames nearly doubled his money in 2023, signing an $8.7-million contract with Milwaukee, again avoiding arbitration. In late May, a foul ball lined into the dugout found Adames during a contest with San Francisco. He missed 10 games with a concussion, but upon his return, he went 2-for-5 with a home run in a 10-2 win over Baltimore. His hitting line for the year was .217/.310/.407 in 638 trips. Adames hit 24 jacks, a decrease of seven from the previous campaign. Interestingly, he drew walks at a rate of 11.1%, nearly matching his number from 2021, yet his batting average dropped nearly 70 points, leaving him with a below-average OPS+ of 95.

Was he ‘gun shy’ after getting drilled with that foul ball? He scuffled in June, hitting only .185/.280/.333, but seemed to recover after that, hitting .233/.329/.443 during the final three months. 

Who is the real Willy Adames? The 2021 version, the 2023 version, or somewhere in between? 

Adames has been mentioned as a trade candidate, along with pitcher Corbin Burnes. But the bigger question is: what happened to his superstar upside?

Here are a few thoughts. 

1. The ‘foul ball to the noggin’ theory. That would make sense, but he actually did better in the second half than he did in the first two months, before the incident. 
2. Trying to hit the ‘long ball’ at the Miller Park launching pad and sacrificing contact for power, thus the drop in BA. 
3. All the talk about trades and, perhaps, a not-so-good relationship with the Brewers front office. 
4. Something going on in his personal life that he is keeping hidden. That need not be anything nefarious; it might just be private. Still, off-field circumstances can get between players and their talent.
5. The talented shortstop might just be pressing, trying to live up to his 2021 breakout and earn a free-agent megadeal. Maybe it is just a case of him needing to R-E-L-A-X!

Lots of speculation, I know, but that’s why we have you, the loyal readers of Brewer Fanatic. What do you think happened to Willy Adames after his first-year success with Milwaukee?

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[Bratwithspecialsauce]

He had already stopped hitting before the foul ball..

For the second year in a row it was clear he went from hitter to hacker after a decent start and expanded his strike zone once summer rolled around and both his contact and offensive desire to hustle waned until September. He showed little remorse about his offensive failures while his clowning around struck a bad chord for many watching. It was eerily similar to Orlando Arcia's   Brewers history.  Lots of energy, a good first season  then falling in love with the dugout cameras while his performance tailed off badly.

I think Counsell's management style may have played into boths regression. Arcia got back to business in Atlanta and became an All Star, being utilized better.

I hope Murph can keep the young guys energies focused on the task at hand rather than clowning around in the dugout while giving 75% effort far too often. 

Watching Willy strike out and hitting into double plays while running 3/4 speed in clutch situations became the norm until September. Then we saw him revert to his better form, raising his OBP over .300  in the last few weeks.

He's good, but a team with management that holds him accountable may be a better venue for him.

[LouisEly]

A couple of times during the season I heard the announcers mention that prior to 2023 Adames had a long setup time when getting in the box and that he struggled early in the season to find a rhythm and make the adjustments to be in the box and ready in 12 seconds.

I'd be curious to see which batters league-wide had the biggest dropoffs in the 1st half of 2023 compared to 2022 and how that compared to their average setup time.

Adames's BABIP in the first half of 2023 was only .238 compared to .278 in 2022 and .331 in 2021.  Adames's .217 OBP in May 2023 coincided with a BABIP of .172 in May of 2023.  Batted ball luck did play a part.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Perhaps the mirage offensively for Adames was the short 2020 Covid season that didn't include games played in March-June (0.813 OPS) and Brewers' portion of the 2021 season (0.886 OPS) for Adames, since the rest of his career he's been a mid-700s OPS hitter.  Last year Adames was brutal save for couple week hot streaks in April and July, but then he had a pretty strong last 40 or so games.  I think he is what he is, and the season long offensive stats either look decent or not so great depending on how many hot streaks Adames pieces together, because his approach will always make him very inconsistent at the plate.

He'll provide really good defense at SS, but I think his 2021 season set unrealistic expectations on what he is offensively - his inconsistency/struggles weren't totally due to Adames struggling to see the ball in the Rays' home ballpark.

[Trax]

Hopefully we can find a trade partner who is willing to offer just comp.  Adames has ceiling left, and he's young enough to reach it.  He has real value and we need to get something for him.  If no offers work then start the year with him and go from there.

[Michael Trzinski]

31 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Perhaps the mirage offensively for Adames was the short 2020 Covid season that didn't include games played in March-June (0.813 OPS) and Brewers' portion of the 2021 season (0.886 OPS) for Adames, since the rest of his career he's been a mid-700s OPS hitter.  Last year Adames was brutal save for couple week hot streaks in April and July, but then he had a pretty strong last 40 or so games.  I think he is what he is, and the season long offensive stats either look decent or not so great depending on how many hot streaks Adames pieces together, because his approach will always make him very inconsistent at the plate.

He'll provide really good defense at SS, but I think his 2021 season set unrealistic expectations on what he is offensively - his inconsistency/struggles weren't totally due to Adames struggling to see the ball in the Rays' home ballpark.

I counted the '0-for-10' streaks or worse and I believe there were eight or nine of them during 2023, including an 0-for-22. I didn't compare to other hitters, so I don't know if this about average or what. Take away those streaks and he hit .270 (120-for-444).

What that means exactly, I don't know, but I bet one of our intelligent readers can separate the wheat from the chaff.

[Fear The Chorizo]

16 minutes ago, Michael Trzinski said:

I counted the '0-for-10' streaks or worse and I believe there were eight or nine of them during 2023, including an 0-for-22. I didn't compare to other hitters, so I don't know if this about average or what. Take away those streaks and he hit .270 (120-for-444).

What that means exactly, I don't know, but I bet one of our intelligent readers can separate the wheat from the chaff.

It means that Adames isn't a consistent hitter....if you take roughly 100 hitless at bats away from any hitter's season-long statline, it's going to look much better.

[Michael Trzinski]

8 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

It means that Adames isn't a consistent hitter....if you take roughly 100 hitless at bats away from any hitter's season-long statline, it's going to look much better.

True, but is that 'average' for big leaguers? I'll dig into it a little.

[Michael Trzinski]

During Adames' 2021 'Brewer' season, he had three '0-for-10' slumps or worse (0-10, 0-11, 0-15). After July 25, he had no such streaks. Take away the 0-for-36, and he was 104-for-329 (.316).

He averaged one 'slump' per 122 ABs in 2021, and one slump per 61 ABs in 2023.

Numbers for your perusal...

[Fear The Chorizo]

38 minutes ago, Michael Trzinski said:

During Adames' 2021 'Brewer' season, he had three '0-for-10' slumps or worse (0-10, 0-11, 0-15). After July 25, he had no such streaks. Take away the 0-for-36, and he was 104-for-329 (.316).

He averaged one 'slump' per 122 ABs in 2021, and one slump per 61 ABs in 2023.

Numbers for your perusal...

why randomly select 0-10?  why not 2-23 stretches?  or 5-40?

0-10 is realistically just 2 games with free-swinging Adames hitting in the top half of a lineup.

And you're still comparing Adames' 2021 Brewers run, which is by far his best stretch of extended hitting at the MLB level over 6 seasons, to what he did last season (likely his worst).  That stretch is what got many people clamoring for the Brewers to extend Adames, and since then he's done a good job of showing why that would be a terrible idea longterm for the Brewers.

The fact is, over the long haul Adames isn't as good a hitter as he was during his 2021 season with the Brewers, that appears to be the biggest aberration in his career long offensive stat line.  He also isn't as bad a hitter as he was through most of 2023, although his approach at the plate leaves him vulnerable to extended cold streaks that a hitter routinely in the top half of the lineup can't have.  Depending on how hot and cold streaks play out, Adames is a 0.720-0.770 OPS hitter who plays a good defensive SS - definitely a valuable player, but not necessarily one that screams longterm "franchise building block" once he reaches free agency if you have to pay him anywhere near the going rate for veteran shortstops.

[Michael Trzinski]

1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

why randomly select 0-10?  why not 2-23 stretches?  or 5-40?

0-10 is realistically just 2 games with free-swinging Adames hitting in the top half of a lineup.

True, but '2-for-23' is not an '0-for.' Getting zero hits is much more frustrating than getting a couple here and there.

But your point is taken. As proven by FTC, it was a pointless task, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. 

[Rick Daltons Flamethrower]

10 hours ago, Michael Trzinski said:

True, but '2-for-23' is not an '0-for.' Getting zero hits is much more frustrating than getting a couple here and there.

But your point is taken. As proven by FTC, it was a pointless task, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. 

I wish Willy's bat was more consistently full of "sound and fury".    :) 

[BrewerFan]

18 hours ago, LouisEly said:

A couple of times during the season I heard the announcers mention that prior to 2023 Adames had a long setup time when getting in the box and that he struggled early in the season to find a rhythm and make the adjustments to be in the box and ready in 12 seconds.

I'd be curious to see which batters league-wide had the biggest dropoffs in the 1st half of 2023 compared to 2022 and how that compared to their average setup time.

Adames's BABIP in the first half of 2023 was only .238 compared to .278 in 2022 and .331 in 2021.  Adames's .217 OBP in May 2023 coincided with a BABIP of .172 in May of 2023.  Batted ball luck did play a part.

This was what I was going to post. His BABIP.

There's luck involved.

He walked more next year. His hard hit% dropped and he often times looked like he was pressing. I expect a big bounce back this year, but he's still a valuable player with his power and glove. The difference is a top 20 MVP candidate vs a nice 3-4 WAR player. If you could extend him for 5/100, I think I'd do it(making it 6/111 or whatever he's projected to get). But I don't think he takes that. So we'll likely play it out with him, offer him the QO and see where we stand after '24. Or maybe we get a nice offer for him and trade him. But I don't think he's quite fallen as far as this is suggesting.