Unzipping the Brewers' 2024 ZiPS Projections

[Jason Wang]

How do Dan Szymborski and his trusty computer program estimate the Brewers will perform in 2024?

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

ZiPS is one of the most comprehensive projection systems in baseball, and has been around for 20 years for good reason. Unlike your uncle at Thanksgiving, ZiPS takes in an immense amount of quantitative information from a window of several years, weighing the data from more recent years more heavily than older data. Using this data, it seeks to estimate a given player’s baseline expectation and where they might be in the near future. Here’s how it thinks each part of the Milwaukee Brewers team (as it currently stands) will do in the upcoming season.

Lineup
ZiPS paints a rather dismal picture for the Crew's crop of position players, and perhaps that shouldn’t be surprising. In 2023, Milwaukee was 23rd in batting average, 25th in slugging percentage, and 23rd in OPS. They were also 24th in wRC+, at just 92, the lowest out of any team that made the postseason (the Marlins were 20th with a wRC+ of 94).

Since then, the Brewers haven’t signed or traded for any players one might deem to be an impact bat (Eric Haase and his 45 OPS+ may prove me wrong) and have lost two of their best hitters. Mark Canha and Carlos Santana were third and fourth on the team in terms of OPS+, at 120 and 109, respectively, with Canha going to the Tigers and Santana still an unsigned free agent.

The only position players ZiPS projects will be worth more than 2.0 fWAR are William Contreras and, interestingly enough, Willy Adames. It makes sense for Contreras to be where he’s at, and a projected fWAR of 3.1 seems conservative, given his excellent 2023 mark of 5.4 fWAR. Adames is pegged to slash .250/.328/.465, an improvement over last year’s slash line of .217/.310/.407. He did have the lowest wRC+ of his career, at 94, and was potentially hampered by the concussion he suffered in late May, so maybe ZiPS is correct to be optimistic about his future. 

Another interesting character is Jackson Chourio. Szymborski points out that he has immense long-term value but is projected to take some time to warm up before he reaches his final form. He and the other outfielders, Sal Frelick and Christian Yelich, are all around the 1.7 fWAR mark, with Yelich being the only one with a forecasted OPS+ north of 100.

Unsurprisingly, first base and DH are the weakest positions on the field, due to Jake Bauers currently occupying the top spot on the depth chart and DH responsibilities being split among a few outfielders and a catcher. There are still a few bats available on the open market, but many of the needle-movers (like Rhys Hoskins, JD Martinez and Jorge Soler) may be too expensive for the Brewers’ tight purse strings. 

Rotation
As much as ZiPS dislikes the lineup, it loves the rotation. Corbin Burnes is projected to be one of the best starting pitchers in baseball despite a slightly diminished performance in 2023, and is expected to post an ERA of 3.32 and an fWAR of 3.9. Freddy Peralta has similarly strong projections, at a 3.86 ERA and an fWAR of 2.6. Wade Miley and Colin Rea are expected to be consistent starters in the third and fourth spots in the rotation, with the fifth spot probably being split between Robert Gasser, Aaron Ashby, and Joe Ross. With the exception of Ross, each name on the starting rotation has the potential to reach an ERA below 4.00 in the 80th-percentile situation, which should speak to the raw upside of the current arms on the Brewers staff. 

ZiPS is also enthusiastic about what Coleman Crow can do. Assuming a smooth return from his recent Tommy John surgery, he's an intriguing piece of the puzzle. Since Milwaukee gave up Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor to get him, they hope he’ll pay off in the long run, but is already slated for a 4.26 ERA and 1.3 fWAR.

Bullpen
ZiPS is projecting four relievers to have an ERA under four: Devin Williams (3.00), Abner Uribe (3.74), Hoby Milner (3.88), and Trevor Megill (3.47). Joel Payamps is close, at 4.02, and Bryse Wilson’s slightly higher estimated 4.34 ERA is partially due to the system assuming a few starts/longer relief appearances out of him.

It’s still one of the best and most versatile relief units in the sport of baseball and an essential component of the Brewers’ pitching- and defense-focused strategy.

Overall, the team is projected to accumulate a win total somewhere in the mid-80s, which may not be enough to seize the top spot in the division given the other moves made by their rivals. However, there is still a bit of offseason left for the team to make some big moves, and who knows? Maybe there are still some positive surprises and breakout seasons to be had.

What jumped out to you in the Brewers' ZiPS projections? Who do you think will outperform their forecasts, and who's due to underwhelm? Join the conversation!

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[Michael Trzinski]

Has anybody gone back to last year's projections and see how close they were?

[sveumrules]

7 minutes ago, Michael Trzinski said:

Has anybody gone back to last year's projections and see how close they were?

These were the final ZiPS projections for 2023. Adding up the deviation from zero for all 30 teams actual wins I got 272 wins, or just over 9 per team.

In this thread I came up with an average margin of error of just under 8 wins for the projected preseason win totals available on FanGraphs Playoff Odds page, which uses a 50/50 split of Steamer and ZiPS.

There were 210 individual 162 game seasons in that sample from 2016 to 2023.

 

[Michael Trzinski]

3 hours ago, sveumrules said:

These were the final ZiPS projections for 2023. Adding up the deviation from zero for all 30 teams actual wins I got 272 wins, or just over 9 per team.

In this thread I came up with an average margin of error of just under 8 wins for the projected preseason win totals available on FanGraphs Playoff Odds page, which uses a 50/50 split of Steamer and ZiPS.

There were 210 individual 162 game seasons in that sample from 2016 to 2023.

 

Whoa