Could a Two-Trade Maneuver Net Brewers Jorge Polanco and Dylan Cease?

[Matthew Trueblood]

The Brewers aren't quite good enough to go into 2024 in an all-in posture, as-is. They have to get better, or get a little more medium-term team control. Why not try to do both?

Image courtesy of © Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

This is one of those wild scenarios that make for a fun Friday conversation. Sometimes such proposals are crazy, and this one might be, too, but it's a bit less so than it looks at first blush. Let's talk about how the Brewers could both bolster their lineup and swap out one rotation ace for another, while lengthening their competitive arc and hedging against growing pains from some key young players. It starts with a move that has been in the ether, floating around as a rumor all winter but never quite coming to fruition.

Trade No. 1: Brewers Land Jorge Polanco and Prospect(s) for Corbin Burnes
Specifically, I'm envisioning a deal that would bring at least Polanco and talented but low-volume pitching prospect Marco Raya to the Crew, in exchange for Burnes. That's a framework the two teams have discussed this winter, and while it's yet to materialize, this version of it could work for both sides, because it would be part of a multi-phase maneuver on both sides. That would allow each to come off their hardline stances a bit.

We don't need to hammer out the details at the moment. Let's just assume Polanco and Raya headline a package for Burnes. That would fill out the Brewers' lineup gorgeously, slotting the switch-hitting, patient, balanced Polanco in as the second baseman and giving the top of their order more depth and roundness. It might look something like this.

1. Christian Yelich - LF
2. Rhys Hoskins - 1B
3. Jorge Polanco - 2B
4. William Contreras - C
5. Willy Adames - SS
6. Sal Frelick - RF
7. Jackson Chourio - CF
8. Jake Bauers - DH
9. Andruw Monasterio - 3B

There are a couple of notable names missing from that potential lineup, and we'll talk about why shortly. Still, it's an awfully stout top five, and the upside in Frelick and Chourio should be obvious to us all, by now. Like Hoskins, Polanco is good at elevating the ball, so among the other things he brings to the table, he can help cure the team of its double play woes.

Polanco is under contract for $10.5 million in 2024, with a club option for 2025 at $12 million. He provides some cost savings relative to Burnes, then, in addition to being a good offensive and defensive fit for the club, and every team (not least the Brewers) loves a team option on a talented player. Raya is the fifth-ranked prospect in the Twins system, according to Baseball America, and profiles as a future starter. He has three above-average pitches and fair control. He does not, yet, have a demonstrated ability to work deep into games or pitch more than about once a week. Still, he's a premium pitching prospect, and would be a fine co-headliner with Polanco. He has a chance to pitch in the majors in 2024, and seems sure to be in position to do so in 2025, given good health.

Now:

Trade No. 2: Brewers Get Dylan Cease from White Sox in exchange for Garrett Mitchell, Tyler Black, and more.
Personally, I don't love Cease. I think the price the White Sox have set on him is too high, and that if they stick to it, they'll end up having to take him into the regular season and hope his trade value bears up under the pressure of another year of work. However, it's hard to argue with his pure stuff, and harder still to debate that he's the American League's answer to Burnes. Cease takes the ball as often and racks up innings as reliably as just about any hurler in baseball, and his stuff (though not well-commanded) misses bats at an impressive rate.

Unlike Burnes, Cease is under team control for another year, beyond 2024. He's due $8 million this season, so on net, this dual move would mean adding another few million to the team's payroll. Then again, they've already surprised some of the more dour among us (me) by signing Hoskins. Mark Attanasio might be holding the wallet open a bit wider than I had believed. If so, there could be an opportunity here.

Mitchell (or Joey Wiemer, but it feels like Mitchell has higher trade value and like Wiemer is the one more likely to settle comfortably into a backup role) and Black are a steep price to pay for the extra year of control gained by going from Burnes to Cease, and the "more" above probably wouldn't be negligible. The White Sox would want someone with upside, though probably a prospect slightly further down the pecking order than Raya. Don't forget about Polanco, though. He offers consolation for the loss of Black and, along with Cease, affirmatively holds the window open another year in Milwaukee, while Chourio and Frelick establish themselves and Brock Wilken, Jeferson Quero, and Jacob Misiorowski matriculate.

A rotation of:

1. Dylan Cease
2. Freddy Peralta
3. Wade Miley
4. Colin Rea
5. Robert Gasser
6. Joe Ross

is, admittedly, not immediately better than one with Burnes in place of Cease. Its virtue lies in its greater sustainability. Cease's extra year of control buys the team time to see whether Misiorowski (or Raya, or Carlos Rodriguez, or anyone else in the system) might emerge as the next co-ace. 

The Brewers would lose, on balance, at least two good young players in this exchange, but they would gain an extra year of control at the top of their rotation and a more viable, well-rounded second baseman. They might increase their chances of extending Willy Adames, and failing that, they'd give themselves the best possible chance to win the division and advance in the playoffs in 2024. This would make the 2025 Brewers more expensive, but also much better, and it wouldn't come at the cost of any quality in 2024.

What do you think? Too crazy? Not crazy enough? Just right? Help me find the Goldilocks Zone, as the Brewers try to do the same in the endgame of a bizarre offseason they've so far navigated well.

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[wibadgers23]

1 hour ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

That's a framework the two teams have discussed this winter, and while it's yet to materialize

Has this been reported and I just missed it or is this inside information?

[CheezWizHed]

Seems like a poor outcome for the Brewers.  Adding 1 year of control on Cease, but losing 4 years of control on Black (i.e. 2 years of Polanco vs 6 years of Black).  

[TURBO]

The thing everyone always seems to ignore about Polanco is, the dude can't stay healthy.  Hurt all the time.

Not a chance in hell I'm moving Burnes for a guy that would look good in our line-up, but just can't stay there.

It's easy for an article writer who is a Cubs fan to want to give away guys like Black, but Brewers fans actually know his value.

I'd pass on both scenarios, I hope the Brewers would as well.

[sveumrules]

Polanco/Raya is maybe half of Burnes excess value, I’d guess that’s why nothing materialized there.

White Sox would probably want Quero to headline any Cease deal, which is a no go for me.

If the Brewers have room to still push payroll a bit just sign a veteran bat like Turner, Belt or Urshela for additional lineup depth.

[old hickory]

Woof... no thanks... 

 

These trades shorten our window and don't improve us enough for the cost.  Trading Burnes may slightly improve next seasons chances, but greatly diminishes this seasons.  Would much rather roll with the team we have vs. trading burnes for marginal upgrades.

I understand that the asking price on Cease is high, and that trade quite possibly get it done, but I would rather keep one year of Burnes and all those prospects over 2 years of Cease.

Appreciate the chatter, but hard pass from where I'm sitting.

[wiguy94]

Does that even make the Brewers better? I can easily see a world where Burnes and Black combine for more WAR than Polanco and Cease. Hard, hard pass, but I understand why the Cubs fan would want this trade to happen.

[Matthew Trueblood]

8 hours ago, wibadgers23 said:

Has this been reported and I just missed it or is this inside information?

I don't think it's been widely reported, but I can tell you for sure that it's true, so I guess it's closer to the second thing? Haha. Not to say that it ever came breathtakingly close to being consummated, but there was real progress on it earlier this winter with those three names as the principals. (There would be more going to the Brewers, but how much more was the sticking point, as it seems to be for many of you.)