Who Is The Brewers' Fifth Starter? Is There One, Does It Matter?

[Bashopolis]

The first six innings of 162 games is 972 innings. How are the Brewers going to manage those 972 innings? Unconventionally.

Image courtesy of © Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

There isn’t a battle for the fifth starter in Spring Training this year because the Brewers plan to use pitchers less conventionally. The plan will focus on using a group of bulk inning pitchers to achieve the best outcomes by limiting injury risk and exposure multiple times through a lineup, in part because the current set of pitchers tends to have problems when facing a batter a third time in a game. Also, the Brewers will need to do this because they have several multi-inning pitchers who cannot be expected to take the ball every five days and go six or seven innings for 30 or more starts.

Instead, the Brewers often use back-to-back bulk inning pitchers to get through the first six or seven innings in a game and have set themselves up by building a deep staff of five-inning pitchers. This depth is balanced with left- and right-handed pitchers to put other teams at a platoon disadvantage throughout the middle innings of games.

The Brewers' goal is to have positive outcomes in over 55% of the games; a positive outcome is being in the lead or tied at the end of the sixth inning. The first six innings of 162 games is 972 innings.

How will the Brewers get through 972 innings in a winnable position 55% of the time? By using pitchers in a way that highlights their strengths while diminishing the risk of injury or ineffectiveness. With this goal in mind, the Brewers would categorize pitchers like this:

The Stalwart: Freddie Peralta (160 innings)
This season, Peralta may be the only pitcher to fill a traditional starting pitcher role. The Brewers will look for him to start 30 games and consistently reach the fifth or sixth inning with the potential of going three times through an entire lineup during a good start.

Everyone else may be handled a bit less traditionally:

The Fifth Day Starters:  Aaron Ashby, Wade Miley, Joe Ross, Colin Rea ( Average 100 to 120 innings each)
Due to injury history or age, this pitcher will more likely get the ball at the beginning of games but will often leave a game before facing a hitter a third time. Each pitcher could be expected to be on the injured list or in the minors for approximately 25% of the season to limit total innings and be fresh at the end of the season. Also, to limit innings and exposure, they may get “piggybacked” as early as the third or fourth inning in a particular game if there are other bulk inning pitchers who have had adequate rest.

The Workhorses: Bryse Wilson, Jakob Junis, Robert Gasser (Average 80 - 120 innings each, depending upon if they are called on to fill in for a fifth-day starter)
This pitcher may get many outings but will more often pitch two or three innings in a game in relief of the fifth-day starters. If they go only two or three innings, they may pitch every third day, but if they go four or five innings, they will get rest more like a traditional starter.

Workhorses will be deployed based on rest, how the pitcher performs, and how to provide the Brewers with the best chance of winning the most games. Much like teams use A and B bullpens, the Brewers will attempt to use the workhorses that are pitching the best to augment winnable games. When one of the fifth-day starters is injured, or the Brewers go to a six-man rotation, the workhorses will take the mound at the beginning of the game.  Bryse Wilson was a workhorse for the Brewers last year. Jakob Junis filled this role for the San Francisco Giants last year.

Between the Stalwart, Fifth Day Starters, and Workhorses, these pitchers will cover 800 to 1,000 innings. But it will also be augmented by rookies available during the season.

The Potentials: DL Hall, Jacob Misiorowski, Carlos Rodriguez (60 – 120 innings)
These players will likely join the team in 2024. They will more likely fill workhorse roles but could start if there are several injuries.

Additional injuries and performance issues will occur among the Fifth Day starters and the Workhorses. This will provide opportunities for these pitchers with the potential to be called up from the minors.

Implementing the Plan:
With this plan, the Brewers can cover as many as 1,360 innings. This is 30% over the 972 innings that need to be covered and provides extra insurance in case of injury or regression. How do the Brewers make this work when there are eleven pitchers in the plan and thirteen pitchers on an MLB roster? There will have to be some creativity.

Using Options:
Ashby and Gasser still have options available, and there may be a need to use those at the onset of the season to keep the depth. DL Hall also has options or could start in the single-inning bullpen use group if needed. Players will be optioned at the beginning of the season to maintain depth on the roster.

Using the Injured List:
Any pitcher age twenty-five or over has some nagging injury. The Brewers will use these to manage their workload creatively. Miley and Ross may even start the season on the injured list as the Brewers comb through their other bulk inning pitchers to see where each one fits.

Players will rotate onto the MLB roster from the minors or the Injured List throughout the season. The injured list can include rehab opportunities and trips to the pitching lab to reset and explore pitch shape and mix changes.

With this perspective on bulk inning pitching, the Brewers won’t be holding a competition in spring training to determine the five best-starting pitchers. Instead, they will focus on which pitcher fits into a specific role and then set an opening-day roster to maintain the depth necessary to get through a long season. There is no traditional battle for the fifth starter position on this roster.

What could go wrong? For one thing, a significant injury to Peralta could have a considerable impact. But beyond that, what could go wrong? Will the Brewers engage in a more fluid view of bulk pitcher usage? Will it work?

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[eddiemathews]

Yup. Been thinking the same thing. It sure would help if they could carry 14 pitchers, but this would work. They'll need enough depth at AAA and AA...or even Appleton...to let guys go there for a couple of weeks to more or less R&R, pitching just once or twice for an inning or two. Another issue could be injury or ineffectiveness from the "A" pen. Misiorowski and Hall for six innings a week will be fun to watch.

[jay87shot]

I have posted this a bunch but at some point would like to see some piggy back starters. It would keep individual innings down and help get more guys regualar chances. By the end of the year we could have like 10 guys (assuming no injuries or trades) who could deserve to be in the rotation.

Peralta 30 starts 180 innings, Miley 23/120, Rae 25/130 Junis 20/100, Ashby 15/120 (piggyback, bullpen), Gasser 15/90, Hall 20/120, Ross 5/80 (piggyback, bullpen), Misi/Rodriguez 9/60 (combined, piggyback?) that is 1000 innings some of them coming in the bullpen, I would be surprised to see abunch of those guys pitch more like Hall or Junis if they are as effective as we hope.

[eddiemathews]

59 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I have posted this a bunch but at some point would like to see some piggy back starters. It would keep individual innings down and help get more guys regualar chances. By the end of the year we could have like 10 guys (assuming no injuries or trades) who could deserve to be in the rotation.

Peralta 30 starts 180 innings, Miley 23/120, Rae 25/130 Junis 20/100, Ashby 15/120 (piggyback, bullpen), Gasser 15/90, Hall 20/120, Ross 5/80 (piggyback, bullpen), Misi/Rodriguez 9/60 (combined, piggyback?) that is 1000 innings some of them coming in the bullpen, I would be surprised to see abunch of those guys pitch more like Hall or Junis if they are as effective as we hope.

The pitchers will tell us who gets the innings. I'm not counting on Ashby; anything from him will be a bonus.

[jay87shot]

6 hours ago, eddiemathews said:

The pitchers will tell us who gets the innings. I'm not counting on Ashby; anything from him will be a bonus.

I have hope for Ashby, I haven't seen an offseason report if his velo is back. If it isn't back yes I agree he becomes a bullpen option and he can slowly build back to the stuff we saw in 2022.

[eddiemathews]

53 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I have hope for Ashby, I haven't seen an offseason report if his velo is back. If it isn't back yes I agree he becomes a bullpen option and he can slowly build back to the stuff we saw in 2022.

Saw a report today (Rosiak) that kinda sounded like his velocity was kinda back but not totally, but that his pitches were close to the same shape as pre-injury. Rather ambiguous...but better than "not close".