Has Abner Uribe Become More Hittable Since Dropping This Pitch?

[Jake McKibbin]

Abner Uribe’s four-seam fastball had outstanding results in 2023, but he seems to have shelved it in 2024. Will this help or hinder him as a closer?

Image courtesy of © Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Abner Uribe’s four-seamer was the headline-making pitch for him last season, averaging triple-digit velocity and topping out at 103.3 miles per hour. Hitters had an expected slugging percentage of just .254, so it was a highly effective pitch that allowed him to target the top of the strike zone with more effectiveness. So why would he put it on the back burner?

The Movement Characteristics
Although Uribe has searing pace on his four-seam fastball, unfortunately, the rest of the movement profile isn’t so impressive. A large part of its effectiveness likely comes from hitters sitting on his sinker and slider, because he generates almost no rise on the pitch at all with just 11” of induced vertical break (2023 league average: 15.5”) and a vertical approach angle of -5.23° (2023 league average -4.78°). He generated just a 10% whiff rate behind it, so over a larger sample size there is a possibility that it could be hit hard.

This is a good example of his four-seamer, in that although it tunnels well with his slider, it isn’t getting the swing and miss it should. Uribe dotted this four-seamer at 102 mph, high and tight on the black, and yet it’s fouled off with relative ease. Bryce Harper is a phenomenal hitter, but Uribe doesn’t use this pitch often enough to see hitters sitting on it, and there is definite concern if his location errs.

Comparable Four-Seamers
A good comparison for this is Hunter Greene, who has the same incredibly high velocity with slightly less movement than Uribe. Last year, Greene's fastball showed a propensity to get those swings and misses, but also got hit hard, with hitters going .265 (batting average)/.518 (slugging) against it, with a 91-mph average exit velocity and 20° launch angle. Anything over the plate got squared up.

As a late-inning reliever, the one thing Uribe has to limit is the home run ball, especially as he can get a little bit wild and issue some free passes. In the crunch of a late-game situation with a thin lead, a walk that puts a runner aboard and a long ball on its heels can be devastating. Uribe doesn't have Greene' margin for error.

The Two-Pitch Arsenal Is Still Filthy
A two-pitch mix isn’t always ideal, but when both offerings are truly elite, it becomes less relevant. Abner Uribe threw some of the most disgusting sinkers I’ve ever seen last season, capped off by this:

The movement he generates while touching triple digits is awe-inspiring, and the amount of run is almost comparable to a changeup, making it a potentially deadly out pitch to left-handed batters. With a 57% ground ball rate and a 22% swing-and-miss rate, it’s an incredible offering to both right- and left-handed hitters. 

To go away from righthanders, Uribe’s slider is also one of the nastiest of its kind, eliciting a number of egregious chases last season.

Hitters swung and missed 58% of the time, thanks to the prodigious break achieved at almost 90 mph on average, it’s a wiffle-ball offering that Uribe can go to again and again. Sticking to this sinker-slider mixture also means plenty of ground balls, so Uribe might be able to induce a key double play to escape jams at times. The issue is that, without the four-seamer, there's little vertical contrast to his repertoire. He might induce a lot of weak contact, but not miss enough bats, because the sinker doesn't set up the slider for whiffs as well as the four-seamer could.

Uribe seems destined to get the lion's share of closing opportunities this season, albeit with a sprinkling of Joel Payamps and Trevor Megill in that role, too. The simplified arsenal seems like it could benefit him and remove a pitch that looked likely for regression this season.

What do you think of high-leverage pitchers with a shorter arsenal? Can they remain as effective? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.

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[Harold Hutchison]

In general, I'm reluctant to reduce a pitcher's arsenal. Alter the mix, sure, but the more pitches a pitcher can throw, the harder it is for a hitter to sit on one.

[jay87shot]

Since it is just a 4 seem fastball it would seem really easy to put back into the arsenal, at least easier than an off-speed pitch. With his sinker being so hard (98-100) I get using it more but I don't quite get when guys don't just have/throw a fastball. I think it is to early to say if it is making him more hittable, 4 hits in 4 innings is worse than last year but hardly enough to make any judgements. Last year baseball savant only had him at 6 % fastballs.

[Jake McKibbin]

45 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

Since it is just a 4 seem fastball it would seem really easy to put back into the arsenal, at least easier than an off-speed pitch. With his sinker being so hard (98-100) I get using it more but I don't quite get when guys don't just have/throw a fastball. I think it is to early to say if it is making him more hittable, 4 hits in 4 innings is worse than last year but hardly enough to make any judgements. Last year baseball savant only had him at 6 % fastballs.

I think it's more to do with the increased usage of the sinker up in the zone to keep hitters honest, if he kept everything down then it's less of an issue, but he may as well fire that four seam above the strike zone to keep them honest and may get better results because of it

[Sugarrayray]

I was always very pleased when he used his four seam on occasion last year. If My recall is correct, he did only throw it rarely but upped its usage noticeably with 2 strikes. 

Even the if pitch metrics forecast limitations, I was very disappointed to see they just had him ditch it. He throws it harder than his sinker and it plays much differently up in the zone, as stated in the article. I will never understand ditching a quality pitch BEFORE it gets hit hard. I think it should be proven over a solid sample size first.

Hopefully they correct the error of their ways shortly. They almost always do when it comes to pitching.

Great read by the way. Thanks.