Series Preview: The Last-Place St Louis Cardinals

[Tommy Ciaccio]

After finally enjoying a day off, the Brewers return to the field to face their division rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals. It's an inauspicious start for St. Louis who sit at the bottom of the NL Central. Will the squad led by veteran talents flip the script for St. Louis, or will the youth movement out of Milwaukee further pad the lead in the Central? Let's dig in.

Image courtesy of © Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

The Cardinals have been synonymous with success in the NL Central for as long as most fans can remember, but last year, with a record of 71-91, they finished last in the division and posted the first losing record for the franchise since 2007. It was an outcome no one expected, only one year removed from a 93-win season that saw Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado finish 1st and 3rd in MVP voting, respectively. The Cardinals vowed to return to form in the postseason by addressing their biggest issue in pitching by quickly signing three veteran names: Kyle Gibson, former longtime Cardinal Lance Lynn and Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray. Will the reupholstered rotation be enough to take on the Brewers' lively bats? Let’s break it down.

Friday, April 19th
Freddy Peralta (2-0 2.55 ERA) vs. Kyle Gibson (1-2 6.16 ERA)
If anyone had posted their hopes on Fastball Freddy to put the team on his back in the absence of Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, they have to be relieved by what they’ve seen so far. Over 17 2/3 innings, he’s struck out 26 batters while walking all of two. His strikeout rate is in the top 4% of the league, and opponents' xwOBA is 80 points below the league average. He’s not only meeting the standards of an ace; he’s exceeding them.

It’s been an ugly start for the veteran journeyman. Never known for his velocity, Gibson has always had a repertoire based on control and offspeed mastery. This year, he’s relying primarily on the trifecta of cutter, sinker and sweeper, but the mix is wrong, and he's getting absolutely barreled. In his three starts, Gibson has given up 13 runs, 11 of which have come via the long ball. At present, the Brewers are tied with the Orioles for second in the league in homers, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them be a handful for Gibby.

Saturday, April 20th 
DL Hall (0-1 7.11 ERA) vs. Miles Mikolas (1-2 5.82 ERA)
It’s quite a steep drop from Peralta to Hall. The rotation experiment isn’t working out so well for the talented lefty. While it might seem unfair to judge his output with only 12 innings under his belt, it should be said that those 12 innings are all that’s been cobbled together after three starts. Pat Murphy’s language surrounding Hall suggests patience, calling his struggles against the Orioles (who drafted and developed him) a “learning experience” wherein he “put too much pressure on himself”. Supportive parlance aside, it’s hard to imagine DL Hall being a fixture in the rotation of any team with legitimate playoff aspirations if he can’t sharpen his game.

Miles Mikolas has had a bit of a star-crossed stretch with the Cards ever since leveraging a 2022 All-Star appearance into an extension. Last year saw his ERA creep toward 5.00, and so far in 2024 he’s well over that number, at 5.82. With a FIP at 4.03 it seems reasonable to suggest that some of Mikolas’ subpar production is due to bad luck, and he’s doing a reasonably good job of limiting slugging.

Sunday, April 21st
Colin Rea (2-0 2.70 ERA) vs. Sonny Gray (2-0 0.00 ERA)
The success Rea has had in a Brewers uniform marches on. His last start was his roughest of this new season with Rea giving up two home runs and three runs total over 5 2/3 innings, but it also saw a spike in the strikeout column, with six. Rea carries a 2.70 ERA and 1.70 WHIP into his start against the division rival. If he can emulate his first two starts, keep the ball in the park and limit activity on the bases, he should be able to provide meaningful innings for the Brewers.

The Crew will be looking to put a dent in Sonny Gray’s thus far unblemished record. Last year’s Cy Young runner-up in the AL takes to the mound to wrap the series without having allowed an earned run. It’s too small a sample size to glean anything yet, but it’s worth mentioning that his walk and barrel rates are both way down from where they normally sit, meaning that his baseline top-tier control is fully functional, despite a spring training injury that delayed the start of his season.

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Players To Watch 
Willson Contreras: There’s nothing like catcher brothers playing against each other. In the past decade, it was the Molinas who dominated the backstop; now it’s the Contrerases. No player had bigger shoes to fill than Willson Contreras, when he signed with the Cardinals to replace franchise icon Yadier Molina. The move wasn’t an immediate match last year, though, and just 34 games into his tenure it seemed like the Cardinals used Contreras as straw man for the team’s dysfunction and moved him temporarily into a DH and outfield role. That disrespectful move didn’t pay off, and he returned once more to the backstop, where he’s now putting up a solid 2024 campaign.

Oli Marmol: First time a non-player is being featured on the “players to watch” category, but Cardinals manager Oli Marmol has such a unique personality and management style that he’s often the most talked-about person on the team. This isn’t to say that he’s popular--having been at the helm for an extremely rare Cardinals losing season is one way to lose love from a faithful fanbase--but sitting the team-leading hitter in Masyn Winn for no apparent reason and getting aggressive with an A’s security guard all highlight the pugnacious and controversial nature of the recently-extended Marmol.

Firebrand managers aren’t uncommon in Cardinals history, as Mike Shildt, Mike Matheny and Tony LaRussa all are famous for their stern natures, stoicism or passion for the game. The difference between them and Marmol? A winning record. Still, Marmol has the faith of the front office, as he was recently given a two-year extension, so there’s something about him they must like, it will be interesting to watch his style of management in real time against the Crew.

Joey Wiemer: In last year’s tidal wave of rookies that hit the Crew, Joey Wiemer came up and quickly endeared himself to Milwaukee’s faithful with a multi-homer game, some stellar defense and a novelty mullet. The charm eventually faded as his bat disappeared, and Wiemer was eventually demoted back to Triple-A. In the wake of Christian Yelich’s back strain, Wiemer is once again being given an opportunity to prove himself capable of big-league production. It will be interesting to see if he seizes on the opportunity.

Jackson Chourio: It would seem the inevitable has happened for young Chourio, and his red-hot bat has hit a chill. In his last five games, his batting average has dipped from .282 to .230, and his BB/K ratio is 1:6. The leash on Chourio figures to be long, and there isn’t any discussion as to whether or not he’s an everyday player, but it is worth watching as April turns to May if this is natural regression, or if pitchers have found holes in his swing.

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Predictions
It’s fair to say that the series against San Diego didn’t go as desired, but the Brewers still simply look like the better team in this one. Coming off of a rest day and some re-calibration, I think they have what it takes to win two of three.

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[Joseph Zarr]

What an absolutely beautiful headline. May it last into perpetuity.

 

Stay Classy, Birdland.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

What an absolutely beautiful headline. May it last into perpetuity.

Stay Classy, Birdland.

I don't mean to boast but that headline was all me.

[Joseph Zarr]

7 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I don't mean to boast but that headline was all me.