Article: Is There Another Marker For The Brewers To Judge Scouting Success?

[Harold Hutchison]

The grand slam Yophery Rodríguez hit a while back is being seen as another feather in the cap for the Milwaukee Brewers' scouting department. But are fans looking at the right marker for drafting success?

Yophery Rodriguez received a $1.5 million bonus in the 2023 international free-agent signing class. Ideally, he'd follow the Jackson Chourio route, on a fast track to Milwaukee. The same goes for Brice Turang, the 2018 first-round pick who has been doing a solid job at second base the last two seasons.

Succeeding with these sorts of high-investment young players should be the basic expectation, though. For a big-money international free agent signee ($1 million signing bonus or higher) or a high-round draft pick (through the Competitive Balance-B picks), the definition of success should be that they either become a big-time contributor to the Brewers for a half-decade or they help acquire a key contributor to the team (see Matt LaPorta in 2008 or Jhonny Severino in 2023).

We all know that not all such signings or picks will be successful; that's not in the nature of baseball scouting. No player who costs seven figures to acquire is providing positive value on that investment, though, until they help the big-league team win games for multiple seasons. Because of the unavoidably high failure rate, you have to get a large positive return on the ones who do pan out.

So, who can be clearer, easier markers of success for a scouting department? Brent Suter has been one of those finds discussed often here, but other diamonds in the rough have emerged big time for the Crew..

For instance, let's take a look at Milwaukee's history with the 11th round of the June draft. Darryl Hamilton, Jeff Cirillo, Corey Hart, and Brandon Woodruff all had solid (if not excellent) careers in Milwaukee. Woodruff is one case to highlight: He became one of the best Brewers starters of all time, while the more highly-touted 2014 draft picks Kodi Medeiros and Monte Harrison's major contributions to the success of the MLB team were being used to acquire key contributors to the 2018 NL Central team. Woodruff's bonus for signing isn't listed, but Medeiros and Hamilton both got seven-figure bonuses. 

The Corey Hart who isn't Pink's husband is another classic example from that 11th round. His time with the team coincided with the 2008 Wild Card run and the 2011 NL Central title, and he was valuable contributor alongside Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder, the best players to man second base and first base in Brewers history. Only two other players drafted by the Brewers in 2000 made MLB: Krynzel (whose time was limited) and Jon Coutlangus, who the Crew didn't sign (and who had 64 appearances in one season as a LOOGY).

Cirillo, picked in the 1991 draft behind "one that got away" Nomar Garciaparra and such luminaries as Ken Henderson, Ty Hill, and Derek Wachter, was arguably the team's second-best third baseman of all time. In that draft class, he clearly was the top player (albeit multiple Gold Glove-winning catcher Mike Matheny would like to make his case).

That's going back a fair bit in time, though. One more recent example of a steal was Cooper Hummel, an 18th-round pick in the 2016 draft. He’s not the team’s biggest success story from that draft (fourth-round pick Corbin Burnes has that honor by a mile), but he was arguably the second-most important contributor by being part of the package that was sent to Arizona for Eduardo Escobar, who fueled the Crew’s run to the 2021 NL Central Division title. Hummel's bonus? $98,500. Again, of those with higher bonuses, only Burnes has definitively outperformed him.

Who’s probably likely to be the next big steal? Let’s look at Yophery Rodriguez’s teammate on the Mudcats, Juan Baez. Despite questions about his defensive home, he’s flashed a dynamic bat. In a small sample at Carolina, he’s walked six times to five strikeouts, upping his OBP game (he had 27 walks in all of his professional career prior to 2024). He became a Brewers farmhand for a $10,000 signing bonus. Yet he could find himself as an infield cornerstone – even if the exact position is in dispute.

Another potential steal is Noah Campbell, who may not be a big star, but who could become a valuable bench asset with his versatility (he’s played all over the field), OBP skills, and solid bat (not to mention taking the mound here and there). Initially a 19th-round pick who didn’t sign in 2017, he was an undrafted free agent in 2020 who’s performed well at the plate and on the field to date.

It goes without saying that hopefully, the scouts who caught on to Hummel and Baez also have been called in, and have outlined what they saw in those players when offering the contracts they signed in order to help the team refine its scouting operations. This could be more important than a big free-agent signing or extension. Why?

First of all, knowing how to pick out those gems can maybe help the Brewers draft them a little earlier or offer that bigger bonus to lock them in. It also could enable them to draft them higher, then use draft-slot savings to pull off a surprise like the way Cooper Pratt and Bishop Letson were wooed from their NCAA options.

Second, given Milwaukee’s harsh hot-stove economic reality, the more hits they can generate in the farm system, the better it is for the team. The more the farm can fill the roster, the less they need to fill in via free agency – and it becomes easier to find the cash for generational players like Christian Yelich and Jackson Chourio, and potentially avoiding the need to trade a Corbin Burnes.

Finally, the more players in the farm system, the more assets the team will have when it comes to making that deadline deal for players who could be the difference between a near-miss, a brief playoff foray, or a deep run that could culminate in the Crew’s first World Series Championship.

So, when Brewers fans want to talk about the scouting department’s success in the upcoming draft, it may not hurt to look at a different metric than just how well the top picks do and instead see how well they hit in late draft rounds, undrafted free agents, and the unheralded international signings.

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