A Way-Too-Soon Take – Four Hard Questions For The Brewers To Ask

[Harold Hutchison]

The Brewers are 17-8 and leading the NL Central as of April 27, despite a rotation that grows more patchwork by the day. But should they be taking a look at some potentially hard questions?

For the most part, the Crew has been doing well. That said, even in success, there may be some hard questions the Crew will need to start thinking about this early in the 2024 season. Let’s take a look at them.

1. How Do You Deal With DL Hall When He Returns?
Hall’s transition to a major-league starter has been rocky. Among Brewers starters, his 7.71 ERA, 7.02 FIP, and 2.27 WHIP are the highest by wide margins. In fact, to put these numbers into perspective, in 2019, Corbin Burnes posted better WHIP and FIP numbers than Hall has now in what everyone considered a disastrous year for the eventual Cy Young winner. What should the Brewers do?

Hall’s stuff has been described by MLB Pipeline as “premium” and “elite” – but right now, it’s a question of whether his continued presence in the Brewers’ rotation is sustainable. He went on the injured list with a mild knee sprain. That's only postponing the hard question. The Crew may need to move Hall back to the bullpen (and get a high-end relief option) or send him to Nashville to work out the kinks of returning to the rotation. It may be time for Tobias Myers or Chad Patrick to get a shot at eating innings in the rotation, given their dominance at Nashville as of now.

Hall as an ace reliever might not be a bad thing - he could pair with Abner Uribe and Devin Williams (when the latter returns from the injured list) to be a "Nasty Boys" pen akin to the trio of Josh Hader, Corey Knebel, and Jeremy Jeffress on that 2018 team, allowing the Crew to have Joel Payamps and Hoby Milner to cover the 6th and 7th innings, while shopping Elvis Peguero for some future lottery tickets.

2. Should The Crew Swap Out Sanchez At DH And Call On Christian Yelich?

We’re only 25 games into the season, but so far, Gary Sanchez’s numbers not as bad as Jesse Winker’s, but they're not as good as hoped. His .680 OPS is bad enough, but he’s only drawn two walks as of April 27. Winker at least got on base and made pitchers face the next guy on a reliable basis, despite his other offensive issues. The Brewers do have some other options on both their 26-man and the-40 man roster for DH at-bats in the short term. One option could be to rotate Sal Frelick, Jackson Chourio, and Joey Wiemer into the DH role while Christian Yelich is on the injured list.

As the only other catcher on the Crew’s 40-man, Sanchez can back up William Contreras, but the DH role doesn’t seem to be working out. That said, a .680 OPS is somewhat sustainable for a backup catcher. But should Sanchez backslide, the Brewers have Eric Haase and Francisco Mejia at Nashville, and both are performing well.

On the flip side, the return of MVP-level Yelich in 11 games was very good news for the Brewers until his back put him on the injured list. He averaged 7.1 Wins Above Replacement in 2018 and 2019. From 2021-2023, he averaged 2.5 WAR a season. That’s a 4.6-WAR difference. But the real issue is that the Crew needs Yelich hitting at MVP level to get the bulk of those WAR, and he can’t do it when he’s on the IL.

Sanchez’s performance opens a path. The Brewers can move Yelich to designated hitter full-time, and then open a space for one of the young outfielders (Garrett Mitchell? Joey Wiemer?) or someone else (Tyler Black? Brewer Hicklen?) to handle left field.

3. Move Adames, Or Roll with Willy?

Yelich is not the only Brewer with a bit of an offensive resurgence. Willy Adames has posted a 144 OPS+ so far in 2024. He’s not only contributed on the field, he’s been an excellent clubhouse leader. Right now, the Crew could deal Adames and move either Joey Ortiz or Brice Turang to shortstop and not lose much, if anything on the field.

Off-the-field, though, the specter of the 2022 Josh Hader trade hangs over a potential Adames deal. Do the Brewers risk disrupting the clubhouse with an Adames deal that could land prospects who can help the team in future one way or another? The Hader trade did eventually give the Brewers William Contreras, but the short term didn’t go so well. The alternative: They stick with Adames in 2024, make a qualifying offer, and see what sort of compensation emerges in a future MLB draft. Or Adames could take the QO, and the Brewers lose him without any compensation after 2025.

Could they sign Adames to an extension? That could end up being $20 million a year – but the Brewers could end up in a payroll crunch. They Brewers don’t have bad options at shortstop, but each of them come with some risks.

4. How Does The Crew Patch Up The Rotation?

The fact that every multiple members of the rotation (Wade Miley, Jacob Junis, DL Hall) have spent time on the injured list is a big worry. The Crew is going to have to make a move to get help. Do they rush up Bradley Blaylock and bet on Tobias Myers for the short term? Do they turn to Aaron Ashby, who is still recovering his pre-injury form? Do they stretch out Bryse Wilson or Bryan Hudson?

They could trade, but which prospects do they give up? Jeferson Quero and Brock Wilken are on the shelf with injuries that will need surgery. Do they trade Tyler Black, who is looking like a left-handed Paul Molitor? Do they deal one of their emerging prospects, like Gregory Barrios or Tayden Hall? Or do they package one of their MLB-ready young outfielders, and thin themselves more than they probably should at that position? 

They could also go the free-agent route, but that brings up the question of who ends up being designated for assignment. Furthermore, which free-agent pitcher do you call on?  Trevor Bauer has talent, but comes with more baggage than a season of the late Jerry Springer's talk show (to put it mildly). Could Zack Greinke be enticed to return to Milwaukee to help eat innings? Who else could come back? Lots of questions for a rotation that is a step down from the 2021-2022 dominance.

What do you think are the hard questions the Brewers are facing early in the season? Let us know in the comments below.

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[sveumrules]

I don’t see any of these questions as particularly hard.

1. When Hall is ready to return you ease him back via low leverage long relief outings or in a piggyback type role unless there is a pressing need in the rotation.

2. Sanchez (28 PA) hasn’t been the primary DH, Hoskins (60 PA) has. Gary’s 680 OPS works out to a 111 wRC+ which is way above the standard for a backup catcher and perfectly cromulent for a sometimes DH.

3. As long as they are in the race they aren’t dealing Adames.

4. The rotation is currently fine. Peralta, Rea, Ross, Wilson and Myers are a solid five with Gasser on the doorstep. Roll with in house options until the deadline.

[BrewerFan]

 

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Hall as an ace reliever might not be a bad thing—he could pair with Abner Uribe and Devin Williams (when the latter returns from the injured list) to be a "Nasty Boys" pen akin to the trio of Josh Hader, Corey Knebel, and Jeremy Jeffress on that 2018 team. This would allow the Crew to have Joel Payamps and Hoby Milner cover the 6th and 7th innings while shopping Elvis Peguero for some future lottery tickets.

It wouldn't be a great thing. He's a starting pitcher. He started for like 3 weeks. Why would we give up on him? At the same time, why would this require us to trade Peguero for "future lottery tickets?" 

I'd maybe make him a long man since he hasn't pitched a full season yet, but the last thing I'd do is make him a 1-inning reliever this quickly. 

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2. Should The Crew Swap Out Sanchez At DH And Call On Christian Yelich?
We’re only 25 games into the season, but so far, Gary Sanchez’s numbers are not as bad as Jesse Winker’s, but they're not as good as hoped. His .680 OPS is bad enough, but he’s only drawn two walks as of April 27.

Why go back to the 27th? As of the 29th, it was .757 as of today, it's .741 and an OPS+ of 111.

Also...if his production as a catcher isn't up to par, why would we use Wiemer in that role instead? He needs to be in AAA...and I'm as big a fan of Wiemer as anyone, but he's not ready, he needs regular ABs and he looks much like Turang did late last summer. 

Sanchez is fine. Be happy you've got a competent backup Catcher.

 

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Could they sign Adames to an extension? That could end up being $20 million a year, but the Brewers could end up in a payroll crunch. The Brewers don’t have bad options at shortstop, but each comes with some risks.

I suspect if Willy would sign for 20M a year, we'd sign him. It just doesn't make sense to trade your SS when you're trying to win. You take a strength and turn it into a weakness. 

Take the comp pick and play it out.

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Do they rush up Bradley Blaylock and bet on Tobias Myers for the short term? Do they turn to Aaron Ashby, who is still recovering his pre-injury form? Do they stretch out Bryse Wilson or Bryan Hudson?

Seems like they've made the decision on Wilson, they're going to stretch him out. Also feels like they've made the decision on Hudson. He's going to pitch a couple innings at a time out of the pen.

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They could trade, but which prospects do they give up? Jeferson Quero and Brock Wilken are on the shelf with injuries that will need surgery. Do they trade Tyler Black, who looks like a left-handed Paul Molitor? Do they deal one of their emerging prospects, like Gregory Barrios or Tayden Hall? Or do they package one of their MLB-ready young outfielders and thin themselves more than they probably should at that position? 

Black, Boeve...we've got a lot of them. Try and make a deal with the Marlins.

You don't ever trade a guy like Tyler Black if you think he's a left handed Molitor though...that's one of the best pure hitters EVER...but not from the left side. So no, no pitcher that will be available would be worth it. Hell, you extend Black if you believe that to be the case. See how teams feel about Yophery or Lara...I don't know, a trade for one of the Marlins arms makes the most sense. We'll see if they do it.