Giants (Harrison) vs Brewers (Peralta): 8/28/24, 7:10pm

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

I mean that's some but I feel like the HR luck in terms of when we are giving up HR has been extremely fortunate. I did it a while back but relative to the amount of HR we have hit (and we are bottom half of the league in HR) we have way more 3-run HR and grand slams than our pitchers have given up. A lot of the HR damage has been 1 and 2 run HR which for how many HR we have given up mostly seems like good fortune than skill.

Maybe the defense keeping the bases clean has played a large part in a lot of the HRs being solos & 2-runners? It also seems to me like we pitch much more carefully when facing multiple baserunners--everyone does of course, but even more so than most. Not a great example because he hasn't been here all season, but Civale seemed way too passive, trying to get chases & make the perfect pitch last week in Oakland w/runners on even though he had a 6-run lead.

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

And the underlying numbers have been horrific for 3 months. Unless he finds his early season form between now and the playoffs, hard to justify keeping him in a playoff lineup especially with his bad 1B defense

Tough to watch when he was hitting w/the bases loaded. Got ahead 2-1 vs a pitcher that walks a lot of people. Nowhere to put him, you KNEW he was getting something pretty straight to hit, got it, and fouled it off. Inning deflated from that point. He's gotten much better at not chasing like earlier in the season, but the strikes he gets usually aren't getting barreled.

Felt for him on Tuesday though. Hit one on the screws w/men on vs Rogers but didn't find a gap.

[BruisedCrew]

I wasn’t at all concerned during the late innings last night. 

After Peralta finished the 6th inning the Brewers win probability was 97% so the game was effectively over. 

[BruisedCrew]

19 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

 

What it comes down to is it would be incredibly hard to find teams who have blown leads like the Brewers currently possess (and those teams didn't have extra the benefit of a tiebreaker for first like the Brewers currently hold). 

It is not incredibly hard because all I have to do is pull things from my memories of following baseball for almost 70 years and then use Baseball Reference to provide the details. 

One of those memories involves the Mariners and Angels in 1995. That was a season that started a little late after the labor dispute that wiped out the last half of the 1994 season and the playoffs. 

On August 20, the Mariners with a record of 53-53 were in third place 12.5 games behind the Angels, who led the second place Rangers by 9 games. The Mariners only had 2 remaining games against the Angels. Angels fans were probably thinking that all the Angels had to do was play .500 ball in their remaining 37 games and they would be in the playoffs.

What happened was that the Mariners went 25-13 the rest of the way (splitting their 2 games with the Angels):while the Angels went 12-25 and the teams ended up tied. The Mariners beat the Angels 9-1 in a playoff to win the division.

This is just one example. It can happen and it has happened, so people who remember it are going to be wary of something similar happening to their teams, even if it has a low probability, like losing a game after leading 10-3 in the seventh inning  

 

[Brewcrew82]

27 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

It is not incredibly hard because all I have to do is pull things from my memories of following baseball for almost 70 years and then use Baseball Reference to provide the details. 

One of those memories involves the Mariners and Angels in 1995. That was a season that started a little late after the labor dispute that wiped out the last half of the 1994 season and the playoffs. 

On August 20, the Mariners with a record of 53-53 were in third place 12.5 games behind the Angels, who led the second place Rangers by 9 games. The Mariners only had 2 remaining games against the Angels. Angels fans were probably thinking that all the Angels had to do was play .500 ball in their remaining 37 games and they would be in the playoffs.

What happened was that the Mariners went 25-13 the rest of the way (splitting their 2 games with the Angels):while the Angels went 12-25 and the teams ended up tied. The Mariners beat the Angels 9-1 in a playoff to win the division.

This is just one example. It can happen and it has happened, so people who remember it are going to be wary of something similar happening to their teams, even if it has a low probability, like losing a game after leading 10-3 in the seventh inning  

 

One example (and you just happened to pick the literal worst collapse in MLB history). Congratulations! Now how about the INFINITELY more examples of teams holding on to leads like these and with room to spare? Like why enjoy things that are 99% going to happen when we can just doom and persistently dream up the worst case scenario outcomes. 

[BruisedCrew]

46 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

One example (and you just happened to pick the literal worst collapse in MLB history). Congratulations! Now how about the INFINITELY more examples of teams holding on to leads like these and with room to spare? Like why enjoy things that are 99% going to happen when we can just doom and persistently dream up the worst case scenario outcomes. 

So now you’re changing your tune and saying it ISN’T “incredibly hard” to find an example. 

If there are “infinitely” more examples of teams holding leads like this, then why isn’t the probability effectively 100%. If the Brewers probability of winning the division is 98% that should mean that there are 49 (not an infinite number) examples of teams prevailing for every 1 that doesn’t.

Or are you saying that a 98% chance of winning a division is somehow different than the 98% chance of winning a game.Or that the 98% chance of winning the division is really understated?

Just because someone RECOGNIZES the worst case scenario doesn’t mean he isn’t enjoying the current situation or persistently worrying about the worst case scenario.

But, as others have said, I’m not sure why you persistently criticize people who take a different approach to things than you do. Why the heck do you care?