You're the Brewers GM: High Risk vs. High Reward, Within My Constraints

[Jake McKibbin]

An interesting approach to the offseason is to seriously consider some questions: How would I navigate it as a GM? What trades would I make? Is there a realistic path to upgrade the roster? Within the constraints and variables at hand, I delved into my plan for the 2024-25 offseason.

Image courtesy of © Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

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The Brewers offseason ahead feels constrained already, with their high projected salaries—although they have begun to eat into that somewhat with deferred money (such as the $10 million for Brandon Woodruff in 2026) and the offloading of Colin Rea, Wade Miley, Frankie Montas and more. As a base to work from, I’ve inputted the following roster to get a gauge of where the Brewers stand (using Cot's Contracts values and some additional buyouts):

Right now, the Brewers roster is sitting at around $110 million, a number that rises to $120 million if you consider Woodruff’s buyout for 2026 as this year's payroll obligation. You’ll also note that Devin Williams is not included, with his projected $8-million arbitration salary for 2025. 

Infrastructure investments far from the big-league roster and reduced TV revenue will constrain the Brewers' spending this winter. At most, on the current roster they may have $10 million to spend to fill out their roster, but most likely, it’s sitting around $5 million. 

With that constraint in mind, let’s get to work!

The Devin Williams Trade
Williams is one of the best closers to have graced the game of baseball this century. With his unicorn changeup and elite fastball, he possesses some of the best swing-and-miss stuff in baseball, on top of being one of the hardest closers to hit a long ball against. (I know, I know. But it's true, most of the time!) Since 2020, Williams has allowed just one home run per 18 innings of work (5th) alongside a strikeout rate of 40.8% (2nd, ahead of Josh Hader). Most impressively, his ERA- of 43 is the second-best out of all relief pitchers in history with over 200 innings, behind only Emmanuel Clase.

In short, this is not just an elite closer but one of the best of all time. As such, his value is sizable and the Brewers should be able to get one solid prospect for a year’s rental of him, or perhaps a talented (if underdeveloped) arm with more team control.

Trade with the Texas Rangers: Jack Leiter for Devin Williams
Jack Leiter is one of the most intriguing arms in baseball. His fastball got hit hard last year, despite an average perceived velocity of 97.4 mph, induced vertical break of almost 17” and a vertical approach angle of -4.28°. The strange part is how hard he got hit at the top of the strike zone, but how he achieved exceptional metrics when he locates just above the zone:

I believe there are some small-sample hiccups causing this, and actually the fastball over time will be a truly elite pitch. Combining that with an effective slider and a curveball that has over 50” of vertical drop (although he can struggle to command it at times), he gets nasty. The changeup does a solid job, and Leiter improved as the year went on, culminating in a 15.6% swinging strike rate in September.

Why might he even be available with such electric raw stuff? Well this is his Baseball Savant page for 2024:

Leiter has a lot of talent in his arm, and the combination of his high, rising fastball both in terms of approach angle and induced vertical break with the big dropping curveball could be electric. Yet, the numbers for 2024 tell a very real story that he hasn’t figured out how to use his arsenal effectively. There is big upside within him, but also a lot of inherent risk. High-upside arms aren't available if the risk attached is minimal, and it's one reason why pouncing on Leiter now would be a good (if risky) move.

At his best, Leiter could be a number-two starter. At worst, he's someone whose fastball lacks deception and never quite nails it in the big leagues. If anyone can unlock that, it’s the Milwaukee Brewers, and I'd back “my” organization to do just that.

Prying him away from the Rangers won't be easy, but with their investments in Jacob deGrom, Marcus Semien and Corey Seager, the Rangers need to chase a return to the playoffs and that may just make Leiter available—especially with the ascent of his college and pro teammate, Kumar Rocker.

While third base is a problem, high-end starting pitching is also a need for the Brewers, and with the Rangers' packed starting rotation, it makes a lot of sense to sniff around the likes of Leiter. High-ceiling pitchers often struggle in their first taste of the majors, and I really like this fit for both teams especially with the AL West as gettable as it’s been since the Astros dynasty began.

How To Address Third Base
With limited payroll to spare, there are two ways this problem can be attacked:

• By going all in on a safe option for the left side of the infield, like Ha-Seong Kim
• Throwing spaghetti at the wall and seeing what sticks while the farm system develops

Given the strength of the Brewers options on the left side (with Brock Wilken and Mike Boeve lurking at Double A with even more talent further down, combined with the capabilities and talent of Oliver Dunn), the spaghetti approach avoids locking in funds for future years while covering this season. The Brewers' depth in the lower minors, in particular, suggests they wouldn't want to be roped into anything longer than a couple of years. It's not just the high-end stars, but the volume of them in the lower minors in 2025 that will be of considerable note, in Cooper Pratt, Eric Bitonti, Jesús Made, Luis Pena and even Josh Adamczewski on the tier below that.

A full season of Jackson Chourio and bounce-back ability from Christian Yelich, Rhys Hoskins and Garrett Mitchell gives enough “maybe” sources of power production to fill most of the void left by Willy Adames. 

In doing so, the Brewers would need competence, not excellence from their third base replacement (as Joey Ortiz will be sliding over to shortstop). Spring training will be approached similarly to how second base was in 2024, with a lot of non-roster invitees and minor-league contracts for journeymen to compete for the role.

Dunn still intrigues me, with his strong eye at the plate; his ability to impact the ball; and his speed, on top of the excellent defense we saw at the start of 2024. His in-zone contact rate was atrocious, but remember: he basically skipped Triple A (like Chourio) and has missed a lot of time with injuries in his career. That suggests that, with experience of MLB pitching, his bat will come around somewhat.. How much experience he’ll need, only time will tell, but I’d be willing to give him a few months in Triple A to start 2025 and hopefully have him progress to be ready for the second half with a more polished swing.

To stop the gap and lend some power upside, Paul DeJong catches the eye. He produced 2.2 WAR as a shortstop last season, and despite holes in his swing and a high strikeout rate, he slugged enough against mistakes over the heart of the plate (see below) and was an above-average fielder. That should allow him to fill in for the Brewers temporarily. Good defense, a little slugging, and he could morph nicely into a bench bat in the second half, something the Brewers also need.

As a side note, his reverse platoon splits in 2024 just fit oh-so-nicely into the Brewers' recent trends. DeJong gives a power bat off the bench and a higher quality of defensive acumen than Andruw Monasterio, and he will probably cost around $4 million on a one-year deal, which wouldn’t do any damage should the performance crater in the first few months of the year.

Deal Or No Deal In The Outfield?
As a result of options available for all outfielders, and the high defensive floor they bring to the Brewers, I wouldn’t be tempted to trade any of the top five just yet. Sal Frelick may yet find more power, Mitchell is still developing and could do with a season without a freak injury, while Blake Perkins is more valuable to the Brewers internally than almost any other organization. Without an impending need to trade one of them, and given the injury history of both Yelich and Mitchell, having five full-fledged outfielders makes a lot of sense for the Brewers. As such, I wouldn't be looking to trade any of them this offseason, unless someone makes an outstanding offer for one of our young cohorts.

The offense, with third base cover, should be in a position to maintain the performance of 2024 in terms of run production, and perhaps even surpass it with further growth from their youngsters. Adding in a high-ceiling, MLB-ready arm to the mix with the Brewers developmental abilities could take the rotation to a whole. Notha. Level. Shoot high with some risk, rather than requiring a safety net in the Williams trade, and the return just might be the key to further success in 2025 where, with myself at the helm, there will indubitably be a World Series at the finish line.

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[jay87shot]

I wouldnt have a problem with getting Leiter for Williams but I would need a decent 2nd piece that would have comp pick value. Leiter does have some top of the rotation potential but hasn't had anything close to good enough result.

I like going for the upside moves with how well our organization has developed talent. I don't get the Paul DeJong stopgap, there are a bunch of better options in my opinion.

I kind of like Jon Berti as a low cost trade option with some great upside if we dont take a big swing at a 3rd bademan. He hits well, plays a solid 3rd, and has great speed. I doubt he would cost more than a low level prospect and his arby is probably like 3-4 million. Oliver Dunn or Frelick could even get some reps without hurting anything.

[Branyanisthegoat]

Love the DeJong pickup, relatively cheap source of power for the lineup, can play anywhere on the infield, and he even caught in college.

In a perfect world he's the backup, but he gives them a decent floor at 3B, and allows them to rest Ortiz & Turang.