Blake Burke as future 1B?

[edfunderburk]

What’s the latest on Blake Burke’s health & potential timeline for his MLB arrival?

Apparently, he was injured & finished the season quietly after a decent start. 
 

He was a decent fielder at Tennessee & was the complimentary player who completed the Burnes trade. 
 

Does he have a big league future? I never see his name mentioned when considering 2026 & beyond. 

Edited November 30, 2024 by edfunderburk

[sveumrules]

My best guess is Burke starts out back in Wisco.

Timeline could be anywhere from he goes bonkers across multiple levels and positions himself for a 2026/27 call up to he goes a year per level and won’t be in the convo until around 2028/29.

I’d have him 3rd behind Tyler Black and Ernesto Martinez on the organizational 1B rankings, but he’s also behind Mike Boeve, Brock Wilken, Luke Adams and Eric Bitonti at the moment who are all ostensibly 3B but could end up as options at the soft corner in the long run.

[Playing Catch]

On 11/30/2024 at 1:32 PM, sveumrules said:

My best guess is Burke starts out back in Wisco.

Timeline could be anywhere from he goes bonkers across multiple levels and positions himself for a 2026/27 call up to he goes a year per level and won’t be in the convo until around 2028/29.

I’d have him 3rd behind Tyler Black and Ernesto Martinez on the organizational 1B rankings, but he’s also behind Mike Boeve, Brock Wilken, Luke Adams and Eric Bitonti at the moment who are all ostensibly 3B but could end up as options at the soft corner in the long run.

Our more scouting-aware posters probably know better than I, but it seems to me that strictly based on draft profile, it would be fair to say the Brewers drafted him, believing that he had the quality to jump over all of the players you mention in your post. I mean, he was ostensibly a late 1st round pick. He's got a college, first base only profile. There's no way the Brewers draft that player without believing he's really good, and that they "expect" him to be a big leaguer sooner than later.

Your projected timeline is correctly conservative, and open-ended, but there will be plenty of time for the minors to dull the shine on a player that there is fair reason to be optimistic and excited for. I think it is VERY possible that due to the exciting current state-of-the-farm, that Burke is almost literally being forgotten about.

[sveumrules]

19 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

Our more scouting-aware posters probably know better than I, but it seems to me that strictly based on draft profile, it would be fair to say the Brewers drafted him, believing that he had the quality to jump over all of the players you mention in your post. I mean, he was ostensibly a late 1st round pick.

He was drafted at #34, but his $2.1M bonus was almost 700K under slot so more in line with the value for picks #44/45.

Bryce Meccage signed for $2.5M at pick #57. They were likely offering Chris Levonas similar or more at #67.

I think the main thing working against Burke is just the depth of the system, Braylon Payne only debuted at #18 on the first voting post-draft before jumping to #11 with an electric small sample showing in AZ.

Ernesto Martinez put up a 195 wRC+ over 201 PAs from July onward at Biloxi and couldn’t crack the Top 20.

[biedergb]

The other thing to keep in mind, is that the organization seems to value depth, both at position and with regard to skill sets.  You don't find Jackson Chourio players every day, and the team won't compete with 9 Turang/Frelicks. You want to have bat to ball players, speed players, power potential hitter, as well as defensive flexibility. Having guys with one or more of the skill sets is key, as well as different players having different skills or combinations of skills to complement each other

The other part of it is that competition will sort these players out, and some will become trade assets for more immediate needs.

But in short I think Burke has a great chance to be the 1B of the future, but if he can't take that spot, we have Black, Boeve, Martinez as well as Wilken/Adams/Bitonti who all are in that mix as the Brewers future 1B.

[Playing Catch]

8 hours ago, sveumrules said:

He was drafted at #34, but his $2.1M bonus was almost 700K under slot so more in line with the value for picks #44/45.

Bryce Meccage signed for $2.5M at pick #57. They were likely offering Chris Levonas similar or more at #67.

I think the main thing working against Burke is just the depth of the system, Braylon Payne only debuted at #18 on the first voting post-draft before jumping to #11 with an electric small sample showing in AZ.

Ernesto Martinez put up a 195 wRC+ over 201 PAs from July onward at Biloxi and couldn’t crack the Top 20.

While I understand that the number that players sign for give us a hint as to the quality of the draftee, it doesn't change the fact that the Brewers drafted the likes of Payne and Burke ahead of guys like Meccage and Levonas. I think it is reasonable to believe that the Brewers felt that the skillsets of those hitters at that price range was more scarce than the skillsets presented by Meccage and Levonas, i.e., the Brewers valued Payne and Burke commensurate with where they were picked.

I don't dispute that Burke needs to jump guys that are already queuing up for big league opportunities, and that therefore, it could impact his timeline.

It's possible that I was misinterpreting @edfunderburk's OP correctly, believing he was more curious why there's no chatter about Burke around here. I'm positing that Burke's prospect status is worthy of more chatter, regardless of his timeline.

 

[biedergb]

1 hour ago, Playing Catch said:

I'm positing that Burke's prospect status is worthy of more chatter, regardless of his timeline.

I think that speaks to both the limited time he had to play in the minors after being drafted and the solid development of multiple hitters throughout the organization (Pratt, Made, Areinamo, Adams, Pena, Boeve) which is great to see, so there are many players who may take a backseat. I mean guys like Yophery Rodriguez would be in the running for #1 prospect if this was the organization depth of let's say 10 years ago, and guys like Payne and Wilken would automatically be top 5 based upon their draft status. But they get less attention than they could.

Burke is a little behind the scenes for now. That's OK. IF he can hit well next year he will make a name for himself like some of those I just listed did the year and/or last.

[Playing Catch]

14 hours ago, biedergb said:

Burke is a little behind the scenes for now. That's OK. IF he can hit well next year he will make a name for himself like some of those I just listed did the year and/or last.

Certainly. And I don't particularly care about whether or not he is recognized on one list or another. I just believe he has the draft profile of a guy that very well could take the minors by storm next year and put himself squarely in the Brewers 2026 season window.

[edfunderburk]

On 12/2/2024 at 5:58 PM, Playing Catch said:

 

It's possible that I was misinterpreting @edfunderburk's OP correctly, believing he was more curious why there's no chatter about Burke around here. I'm positing that Burke's prospect status is worthy of more chatter, regardless of his timeline.

 

I was indeed wondering (curious as to the opinion of those in this forum) if Burke may be overlooked & a potential surprise candidate to make the big league roster sooner than expected with a big 2025 season. As a lifelong Tennessee Volunteers fan, my hope is he rises quickly & becomes a longterm solution at 1B for the Brewers.