Newly-Minted Free Agent Third Baseman Would Fit Brewers' Identity, But Not Their Greatest Needs

[Jack Stern]

The recently non-tendered infielder has several traits the Brewers value, but that would not necessarily make him an opportunistic signing.

Image courtesy of © John Froschauer-Imagn Images

The tender deadline near the end of November added several low-cost infielders to the free-agent pool. While expected, that’s still good news for the Brewers, who are in the market for infield help with Willy Adames all but guaranteed to sign elsewhere. One of those newcomers to the market is Josh Rojas. The 30-year-old hit .225/.304/.336 (91 wRC+) for the Seattle Mariners in 2024. Upon accounting for the run environment (T-Mobile Park was the worst place to be a hitter in 2024), that production matched his career line of .247/.323/.362 (92 wRC+).

The trajectory of Rojas’s season, not his overall numbers, likely convinced Seattle to move on. He began the season on a tear, posting a 1.029 OPS through May 5, but his bat cratered for a .196/.274/.282 line the rest of the way. After that hot start, he limped to the fourth-worst wRC+ among hitters with at least 350 plate appearances.

It was Rojas’s second consecutive season of below-average offense, after posting a 106 wRC+ across the 2021 and 2022 seasons. His batting average on balls in play sunk to its lowest mark since 2020, perhaps partly because Rojas hit more balls in the air. That can be a recipe for success for those who hit the ball hard, but is often detrimental to those with suboptimal exit velocities.

While Rojas makes much more hard contact than both, we’ve seen this movie before with Brice Turang and Sal Frelick. When they elevate, those lazy fly balls are often automatic outs. Therefore, they try to avoid hitting the ball in the air. Then there’s Rojas, who was similarly unproductive on fly balls but hit more than the average batter.

Leveling out his contact to produce more line drives could boost Rojas’s offense, as would improving his fourth-percentile bat speed. He already boosted his hard-hit rate to a career-best 38.2% in 2024. That’s still lower than the league average, but it gives him more to work with than Turang and Frelick have in terms of generating pop.

Even without improvements to his offense, Rojas is arguably the most Brewers-esque infielder available. He’s versatile, having appeared at every infield position and both corner outfield spots. He’s coming off a solid defensive season while playing primarily third base, compiling 7 Defensive Runs Saved at the hot corner. He doesn’t offer much power, but is a selective hitter whose 22% chase rate ranked in the 89th percentile.

These qualities would make him a seamless fit in the Brewers’ run-prevention and run-producing systems. The club prioritizes positional flexibility, excellent defense, and smart swing decisions. It could be a fruitful match between player and organization, but Rojas’s offensive limitations and similarities to existing Brewers position players should prompt the team to look elsewhere first.

Milwaukee posted baseball’s fourth-highest on-base percentage in 2024. With nearly that entire lineup set to return, the floor is already high enough. The Brewers need more hitters with greater power and higher ceilings, especially after losing one of their most consistent home-run hitters in Adames. The light-hitting Rojas does not meet those needs. He would also force Andruw Monasterio into the short side of a third-base platoon, when he’s better suited for a stricter bench role or as Triple-A depth.

Rojas should be on Matt Arnold’s radar but not near the top of his list as he shops for infielders. With the potential to be a league-average hitter with strong glovework, he’s a more reliable fallback option than Monasterio or Oliver Dunn. There’s a viable scenario in which he’s the free-agent third baseman who lands in Milwaukee.

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[jay87shot]

I like Rojas a bunch, as mentioned the bat isn't great but he has hit .260-.270 before which will play. My concern is that I would want to platoon, he hit .133/.224/.133 in 60 ab's vs LHP last year. Mone would be fine but our best 3B candidates in my opinion are Sal and Dunn which doesn't work. I love the ballpark data you included, I do think that the would hit better in AFF. I would love to sign him for say 3 million and still have the 2026 arby option. He probably jumps up to maybe my 1a/1b favorite cheap option with Jon Berti for 3rd. Actually we could just sign both and have a moneyball 3rd base and utility player that would likely be really effective.