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Was his 2024 campaign enough for us to consider the keystone sacker a longer-term Brewer?

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Milwaukee doesn’t sign a lot of long-term contracts. The largest in franchise history is still Christian Yelich’s nine-year, $215 million deal, which was signed after back-to-back MVP-quality seasons. In second place is Ryan Braun’s five-year, $105 million contract, less than half of Yelich’s total compensation and a meager offering compared to the gargantuan free-agent deals inked in today’s day and age.

Based on that information alone, the odds of getting a big Brewers payday don’t seem to be in Brice Turang’s favor. The club simply doesn’t work that way, and has always been more focused on cost-effective roster construction. However, based on what they did with Jackson Chourio, Milwaukee could find a happy medium between spending money and retaining talent. Last December, Chourio signed an eight-year, $82-million contract before he had a single major-league plate appearance. It was the largest-ever deal signed for a player with his level of experience and a risk uncharacteristic of the typically frugal team. Now that we’ve gotten a taste of what he’s capable of, though, the move looks like the big-brain play of the decade. The contract will end after he turns 27, at which point the Brewers will still have two years of team options at $25 million each. In the best case, he’ll be in Milwaukee until he’s 30, giving the team 10 years of solid major-league productivity and the majority of his athletic prime.

The front office was essentially betting on Chourio to be good before the other 29 teams had a chance to really catch on. Without the extension, his arbitration salaries and stock as a free agent would have continued to rise, creating a situation similar to Willy Adames's—except with an even lower chance of sticking around. A bold comparison would be Juan Soto, who debuted at a similar age. Because Soto was such an exceptional young talent, he was destined for a massive payday. By the end of his fourth season, he had already received and declined a 13-year, $350 million offer by the Nationals, so it wouldn’t be outlandish to assume Chourio could have been down a similar path.

But Turang is hardly a prospect of the same quality as Chourio or Soto. He’s already 25 (so old!) and hasn’t managed to eclipse the 90 OPS+ mark in either of his two major-league seasons. Much of his productivity has come from his defensive contributions, culminating in 22 Defensive Runs Saved and a Platinum Glove in 2024. His glove has been outstanding, but a more enticing part of his case for an extension is his offensive upside. It does seem odd that a player with a .631 career OPS would be the topic of an “offensive upside” discussion, but Turang’s numbers are begging for a closer look. 

His entire 2023 was rough, and the .585 OPS he carried throughout the season told the story. He just couldn’t catch up to big-league fastballs, and averaged just .198 against heaters. He took a colossal step forward in 2024, however, averaging .308 against four-seam fastballs and cutting down his whiff and strikeout rates. By the end of June, his OPS against four-seam fastballs was a whopping .946. Unfortunately, old habits seemed to return in the second half of the season as his numbers against four-seamers regressed to his 2023 results, but it posed an interesting question: If Turang found a way to be consistently effective against velocity, could he be one of the best second basemen in baseball?

Despite an OPS+ of just 85, he still managed 4.7 rWAR last season. He was second only to Daulton Varsho in defensive rWAR and his overall numbers could be nearing MVP levels if he gets his bat going a bit more consistently. Even more exciting is the fact that we’ve already gotten a glimpse of the peak of Turang’s offensive powers. He has struggled to hit the ball with consistent oomph in his first 1,000 MLB plate appearances, but he could be a high-average guy akin to Luis Arráez, without the fielding liabilities. Furthermore, second basemen are rarely expected to produce big power numbers, so it's not like Turang would actually be that far off what's expected of him.

Thus, an extension shouldn’t be considered totally out of the question. The 2026 season will be Turang’s first year of arbitration eligibility, and if he maintains his upward trajectory of offensive improvements along with his best-in-class defense, it could soon get expensive for the club. Would Turang sign an extension like the one given to Chourio? Absolutely not, but it could be a way for the front office to lock him down for the price and duration they feel he will be the most effective. A deal more in the six-year, $45-million range (with team options that could be much more lucrative) could be good for both sides. We'll see if they go there come spring training.


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Posted

If you can get him at a REALLY good price, sure.

I just don't view Turang as the kind of player you need to extend.  

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS
Posted

I dunno, speed/defense/contact guys don't typically age like wine, and it's my understanding that arbitration doesn't reward defense appropriately.

I guess if Turang suddenly starts hitting like Arraez they'll be kicking themselves, but I don't see how that's a good bet.

Posted

We have seen time and time again that extending or signing catchers to large amounts doesn't usually end well, Murphy is the latest example. 

With that said, Turang isn't going to get the contract that Conreras will, would be open to talks with Turang especially considering he will be super 2 for the 2026 season and will start getting significant bumps in pay anyways.

 

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