Could Ha-Seong Kim and Brewers Eventually Circle Their Way to One Another in MLB Free Agency?

[_Rob_G_]

While there are not many quality infield free agents this year, Ha-Seong Kim could be someone who doesn't get as much money as he expects. His offensive production dipped in 2024 and ended the year on the IR. Coming to the Brewers to prove himself worthy of a longer, more expensive contract could work out well for both sides.

Image courtesy of © Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

The Brewers are never going to pay anyone close to what Juan Soto is making with the New York Mets. They won't pay for any of the other premier free agents this year, either. But what if the market for some of them isn't what they expect? If players are looking to take a short deal with the goal of rebuilding their value for a second foray into free agency, the Brewers would be a good place for them to consider. Though it didn't work perfectly for him, those are the circumstances under which Rhys Hoskins came to Milwaukee last winter. This offseason, Ha-Seong Kim is someone who fits a mold the Brewers like: he's a good, versatile defender, and could be in line for a bounce-back year offensively, depending on his health.

Kim is a shortstop whose deal should end up looking more like that of Tommy Edman than like the megadeal Willy Adames signed. Edman recently inked a 5-year, $74-million contract with the Dodgers. Adames, as you all know, got $182 million over 7 years from the Giants. The potential for a cheaper deal comes following a slight down year from Kim; he also missed the end of the San Diego Padres' season as he underwent labrum surgery. Over 121 games, he hit .233, the lowest since his first MLB season in 2021, and he had an OPS+ of 96. Even though (from a results-oriented perspective) he had a down year, his hard-hit percentage and his barrel rate were up. His average launch angle did rise slightly, from 13.6 degrees to 15.1 degrees, but he kept his ground ball and flyball percentages relatively similar to what they have been throughout his career.

One contributing factor to Kim’s lower averages were his BABIP being down more than 40 points from 2023. At first glance, it seems as though that came from his slight increase in fly balls. Interestingly, his 2024 season was the first time since joining the Padres that Kim hit more fly balls than grounders. With his speed, that could be an adjustment any team that signs him could look to make. Kim is not a particularly powerful hitter, so it would benefit him to drop that launch angle back down to that 13.6 degree mark he has posted twice since joining the Padres. We live in the era of the fly-ball hitter, but Kim was never guilty of Christian Yelich levels of grounder trouble, anyway, so a slight retreat to his old tendencies would be fine.

For his career, Kim prefers to hit against lefties, holding an OPS of .786 against southpaws but only .671 against righties. One point that will be interesting to follow, depending on where he signs, is that he had ample protection in the Padres lineup. In the 2024 season, Kim most commonly hit out of the 8-hole. Presumably, he saw a lot of good pitches to hit when the top of the Padres order contained some mixture of Luis Arraez, Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill, and Jake Cronenworth.

Were he to sign with the Brewers, they would hit him higher, and he would need to produce without as much protection (meaning, in this case, fewer runners on, and thus less positional pressure on pitchers and fielders). He has shown in the past that he can produce in other lineup spots. For his career, Kim has mostly batted leadoff or 6th (or even lower) in the order. Setting him up in a batting order platoon with Brice Turang—with the new guy leading off against lefties while Turang bats eighth or ninth, but Turang leading off against righties—might be a very productive gambit. Could the team possibly justify a big expenditure and then bat Kim eighth or ninth more than half the time, though? Well, in fairness, they often batted Hoskins seventh in 2024, and Hoskins was really only signed for his bat. With Yelich, Jackson Chourio, and William Contreras at the top of the order, Kim might be too stylistically similar, at least against righties. At the Brewers budgetary levels, you can't replace the Adames pop with one hitter, but they'd still need to find power for the middle of the order. Maybe they can get more out of Hoskins and Garrett Mitchell in 2025, and Kim could punish teams who pitch around those guys by providing key singles and walks from the bottom third of the order.

This was the first year Kim played strictly shortstop for the Padres. Throughout his career, he has been a valuable defender all over the infield, even winning a Gold Glove as a utility player in 2023. He perfectly fits the classic Brewers’ profile in that way. There was no significant drop-off for Kim lining up at shortstop every day, so there should be no worries were he to come to Milwaukee. He graded out as an above-average defender according to both Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved. Per FanGraphs, he has an average arm, but with the speed and fluidity he has, it plays up. Speaking of speed, Kim is also someone who steals bases. In 2023, he recorded 38 steals, and in 2024, he stole 22. It's possible, were he to sign with the Brewers, that he could see a jump back to those 2023 numbers, as the Brewers place a large emphasis on taking that extra base. The Padres, with the abundant power in their lineup, didn't lean on that lever as heavily. 

If Ha-Seong Kim has a robust market this offseason, he won’t end up in Milwaukee. If (on the other hand) his market stalls due to some injury concerns, he could be looking to sign a short deal to maximize his money-making potential. Could he be a stopgap in the infield until the Brewers can call up one of their prospects, or find a longer-term solution somewhere else?

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[Doug B]

He has a lifetime 99 OPS+ and last year he had a 96 OPS+. I would not expect much "bounce back". 

[_Rob_G_]

2 hours ago, Doug B said:

He has a lifetime 99 OPS+ and last year he had a 96 OPS+. I would not expect much "bounce back". 

I agree that it won’t be a huge bounce back but his OPS+ his first year in MLB was 73. He has been at 105 and 107 since. If he can lower his launch angle slightly, while maintaining his exit velo, I could see that OPS+ getting back to just under 110. 

[wallus]

Kim would be a fantastic pickup. Although I haven't read much recently, there was talk of a lot of competition for him earlier in the offseason.

[sveumrules]

All gonna come down to the medicals.

Sounds like Kim is targeting late April early May to be ready but that could easily spill into June and then you're missing a couple two tree months waiting on him and presumably riding an Oliver Dunn / Andruw Monasterio platoon in the meantime? 

And there's a decent possibility Kim will need the rest of this year to get back up to speed before maybe being in a position to return to peak form in 2026?

Too much uncertainty for my tastes, but if the market settles around a Hoskins one plus one kind of deal I could see the Brewers getting involved.