Caleb Durbin Runs the Bases Like He's Being Chased, and It Rocks

[Matthew Trueblood]

The 2025 Milwaukee Brewers might hit fewer homers than the 2024 team did. The 2025 Milwaukee Brewers will also steal 300 bases, if this kid has anything to say about it.

Image courtesy of © Doug Raflik/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin via Imagn Content Services, LLC

It's easy to look down on Caleb Durbin. I mean, it's literally easy to look down on him, for most people, because he stands 5-foot-6. The limits on his power potential are very real, even though he leverages what exit velocity he is able to generate much better than players like Sal Frelick and Brice Turang do, by hitting the ball in the air and pulling it more often. His offensive profile is the kind at which many modern fans and some modern teams sneer, because there's a perceived risk that he'll have the bat knocked out of his hands, the way forgettable recent infielders like Nick Madrigal, David Fletcher, and Nicky Lopez did.

That risk, too, is real. Durbin makes good swing decisions and had a superb contact rate in the minors, and the former skill is important. Light-hitting guys like him have to be patient, so they can force their way on base with the occasional walk even though pitchers are unafraid of them. If Durbin severely lacks thump, can he realistically do any more than hit .280 and get on base at a .340 clip, with a slugging average under .400? Maybe not. That's the path Frelick has hewn for himself in the majors, but his offense is not what kept Frelick in the lineup every day in 2024—and Frelick has the advantage of being a lefty batter. If his OBP were .015 worse, as Durbin's might be if he's not shielded from righty pitchers to some extent, Frelick would be an uninspiring player.

The real separator for Durbin, though, is something Frelick doesn't possess, and Turang has shown only in a lesser, normal-person kind of way. Caleb Durbin steals bases with a ferocious, fearless abandon. If he can stay healthy and get on base enough to matter, he might very well eclipse the 50 steals Turang amassed in 2024. Throughout his short pro career, he's been as aggressive as any baserunner in the game.

This season, in 90 regular-season games in the Yankees system, Durbin stole 31 bases in 35 attempts. That's an impressive rate, even given that he was practically always on base, with a .388 OBP. It utterly pales in comparison, though, to what he did in his second tour of the Arizona Fall League. He played 24 games and took 117 plate appearances in that autumn prospect showcase, and in addition to swatting five home runs and getting on base at a .427 clip, he stole a staggering 29 bases in 30 attempts.

In 2023, Durbin made his first appearance in the Fall League, and stole 21 bases in 23 tries over 23 games. That was on the heels of a regular season in which he swiped 36 bases and was caught eight times in 69 games played. He gets on base often, and when he spots the merest inattention by the pitcher or knows he has an edge because of a weak-armed catcher, he goes. He borders on the cliché of a Pat Murphy-style Brewer, with the diminutive height and the dearth of power and the defensive versatility, but this combination of speed and eagerness to weaponize it is on another level. 

 

Big-league catchers are better than their minor-league brethren. So are big-league defenses and big-league pitchers. Durbin won't be able to get on base as often or steal as easily in the majors as he has throughout his time in the minors, and the team might occasionally try to reel him in, since he's in the habit of injuring himself and missing time. On the other hand, though, Murphy was bound to love him, not just for his size or the nature of his strengths, but for his on-field tenacity. He's a crash-into-the-net guy, chasing fly balls. He's a take-the-extra-base guy, when defenses are napping and the ball is in play. Durbin might hit .300 and walk his way to a near-.400 OBP, and if he does, he'll be a star. He's much more likely to hit .270 and run an OBP below .350, but even at that lesser tier, he can be a fun and highly disruptive offensive player. He's going to be a huge part of the Brewers' running game, which they regarded as both indispensable and essentially unstoppable last year. It's not just his speed, but the utility of it that should make a major difference for the Crew in 2025.

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[igor67]

I wonder if there was any thought that maybe Durbin shares some of his tricks for squeezing out more power with Frelick and Turang? Coaching and video tape are one thing, but having a teammate making it work might just be helpful in a different way.

[Matthew Trueblood]

34 minutes ago, igor67 said:

I wonder if there was any thought that maybe Durbin shares some of his tricks for squeezing out more power with Frelick and Turang? Coaching and video tape are one thing, but having a teammate making it work might just be helpful in a different way.

I love that thought. It's not the kind of consideration that teams allow to shape their targets, but now that he's here anyway, I'm *sure* they'll be eager to see him, Frelick, and Turang (among others) share ideas and try to make each other better.

[Rick Daltons Flamethrower]

Call me crazy but I just don't see Caleb as a started in a Brewer infield which needs more power and pop since Adames left. He will be a fun and spicy utility player. 

[eddiemathews]

2 hours ago, Rick Daltons Flamethrower said:

Call me crazy but I just don't see Caleb as a started in a Brewer infield which needs more power and pop since Adames left. He will be a fun and spicy utility player. 

otoh, if the Crew can get more power from Yelich, Mitchell, Chourio, Hoskins, and Contreras...and even a few more dingerz from Frelick...they can come close to the number of homers. This will only matter if Durbin can play third adequately, and if Ortiz can be an improvement over Willy at short. (I actually expect Ortiz to be an upgrade at short over ly Willy). 

[jay87shot]

I really don't know what to make of the potential infield. Durbin really just seems like a 2B guy to me but I don't think he is that guy to move Turang yet. My guess is we add a cheaper 3B option in FA (Berti/Rojas) and if Durbin plays well for a month or two in AAA (playing 3B) he takes over 3B. If the offense is there but not quite defense we shuffle the IF next offseason.

[jesusoftheapes]

On 12/16/2024 at 7:47 AM, igor67 said:

I wonder if there was any thought that maybe Durbin shares some of his tricks for squeezing out more power with Frelick and Turang? Coaching and video tape are one thing, but having a teammate making it work might just be helpful in a different way.

I think they got Durbin to start not platoon. I think he is a plan just like Joey was last year.   I think Turang is SS.  

[jesusoftheapes]

Id take a .270 hitter who steals 50+ bags a season anyday.  That is no numbers to sneer at and a starter in this system day one if that is the worst he will do.  If he can get anywhere near north of the .280 mark this will be a massive trade success.