Elvis Peguero's Sinker is in the Best Shape of Its Life

[Matthew Trueblood]

The righty reliever's velocity is down this spring, but a funny thing happened on the way to oblivion: his signature sinker got its heaviness back.

Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

In 2023, Elvis Peguero emerged as a vital and trusted member of the Milwaukee Brewers' bullpen, thanks to an exceptionally heavy sinker and a slider that paired perfectly with it. He made 59 appearances, and while neither his ERA (3.38) nor his strikeout and walk rates would make your eyes pop, he was a highly valuable medium-leverage middle reliever. He put up a 91 DRA- (where 100 is average and lower is better) and a sparkling 1.4 Win Probability Added figure. 

Last year was a different story. Peguero actually had a better ERA, but that number was a liar. His opponents' OPS rose by .100, to .717. His WPA was -0.8. His strikeout and walk rates each crept in the wrong direction, leaving him with an unimpressive, untrustworthy 101 DRA-. Some of that can be put down to usage; Pat Murphy took a little time to figure out how best to deploy Peguero's unique skill set. Much of it, though, is about his sinker not sinking.

The thing that unlocked Peguero and turned him into such a weapon when he joined the Brewers in 2023 was the weight of his sinker—and specifically, his ability to make it plunge, often inducing downward vertical break. That's almost unheard of for fastballs of any kind, save from submariners, but Peguero threw 140 sinkers at least 93 miles per hour, with an IVB under 1 inch and at least 13 inches of arm-side run in 2023, out of 524 total sinkers. In 2024, he just couldn't find that same sink. His lateral movement was ok, and his velocity was fine, but only 15 of his 480 sinkers met those same criteria, because the ball tended not to dip as sharply.

As you can see, that's changed this spring. Already, in just a few Statcast-tracked outings in spring training, Peguero has thrown five such sinkers. He's back to throwing a bowling ball, at least at times. Pair that with considerably more depth on the slider, and it's pretty easy to make the case that he's better off than ever, in terms of pitch shapes and matchups with opposing hitters.

He'll have to throw strikes, of course, and that's remained a challenge. His velocity is also a concern. Peguero has thrown 32 tracked sinkers this spring, and he's down from just under 97 mph in 2024 to 94.6. It's not as easy to overwhelm hitters and force weak contact with that much less sheer speed. On balance, though, the shape is more important. It's the shape that has made Peguero so valuable, when he's been on his game, and that aspect of his fastball is back in 2025. If he can land his two key offerings in the zone just a bit more consistently, he could regain his place of primacy within the Brewers' relief corps this year—and help the team continue to outperform projections.

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[Brian]

His longest outing this spring was 1.1 innings and his numbers were exceptional. 

https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/elvis-peguero-player-game-log?season=2025