Time for Some Urgency: Brewers' Playoff Odds Slipping Into a Dangerous Range

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

According to Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projection system and their projected standings, the Brewers have just a 6.2% chance to make the postseason in 2025. FanGraphs is a bit more optimistic, giving them an 18.6% shot. By either measurement, though, they're in some trouble. The Cubs have a large advantage on them in the division projections, and last week, the Cardinals surpassed them, too—in both Prospectus's and FanGraphs's estimations.

Not since their collapse at the end of 2022 have the Brewers been in such a tough spot, according to anyone's playoff odds. In fact, you can go all the way back to 2018, and the only times they've been slung this low were that brutal September in 2022 and the beginning of that month in 2021—before a late surge vaulted them to the division title, after all. With not only poor overall odds but two teams in the division ahead of them, the Brewers are dealing with an unfamiliar problem: the threat of irrelevance.

There were signs of trouble beginning on Opening Day, of course, to which the team has responded with the necessary alacrity. Pat Murphy's messaging has been clear since Day 1, as he's demanded crisper baseball than the club has played, but it hasn't yet yielded the results he's after. The front office has matched Murphy's energy, from the slightly impulsive Quinn Priester trade to significant roster tinkering. Oliver Dunn, Bryan Hudson and Tobias Myers have failed to capitalize on their opportunities, and been optioned to Triple-A Nashville. Vinny Capra's ineptitude at the plate led to him being designated for assignment.

Sources in other front offices said this weekend that the Brewers are actively talking about trades, to a greater degree than is typical for this time of year. Unfortunately, few potential partners are ready to have those discussions, or at least to pull the trigger on big moves, so a real solution to the team's looming problems will be hard to shake loose for the next two months of so. Instead, the team will have to find some fixes within their own ranks.

The good news there is that the team has some players with short-term impact potential in Nashville, beyond the aforementioned big-leaguers who have been shuttled back there to get themselves right. Ernesto Martinez Jr. still leads all Triple-A hitters in 90th-percentile exit velocity, while drawing plenty of walks and making ample contact within the strike zone. Jacob Misiorowski has turned a corner with his command, and deepened his arsenal. His prospect stock is rising; he might turn into an ace after all. Craig Yoho's first stint with the parent club wasn't as good as anyone might have hoped, but he'll be back at some point, and could be a major weapon for the bullpen.

None of them can play shortstop, though, and Joey Ortiz still has a .461 OPS. His only home run, hit this weekend in Tampa, was a poke down the right-field line that wouldn't have been gone in any other park in the majors, according to Statcast. None of them are catchers, so they can't backfill if the team finally sells William Contreras on a stint on the injured list. Martinez has the bat they need to give their lineup some juice, but plays the same position as Rhys Hoskins, who's already one of the hitters actually performing up to snuff. 

Things are trending in a bad direction. The shakeups they've already attempted haven't gotten the team untracked, and the ones they might envision making will have to wait for a bit. For now, they're fighting for their lives.

This is the two-time defending National League Central champion. It's been built by one of the most nimble front offices in baseball and is being run by an energetic, highly engaged manager. They're more talented than they've looked for much of this season, too. Thus far, they've only shown the ability to win games by totally shutting down the other team, but somewhere in there is the same group that found almost endless ways to win over the last two years. If they don't tap into that soon, though, their underlying talent and their great organizational fundamentals will go for naught—at least this season.

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[Brock Beauchamp]

As long as the Brewers are hovering around .500, I'm not super-concerned about their playoff chances.

As this article highlights, HOW they're hovering around .500 is the most concerning aspect of the team. They badly need a shot in the arm, hopefully they can find one soon.

[Team Canada]

9 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

As long as the Brewers are hovering around .500, I'm not super-concerned about their playoff chances.

As this article highlights, HOW they're hovering around .500 is the most concerning aspect of the team. They badly need a shot in the arm, hopefully they can find one soon.

I agree with both statements. I'm highly skeptical of projecting St. Louis jumping to 30% odds just because they won 8 in a row. Anything can happen, but it's fair to say that if they continue on as is, they won't make the playoffs.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, Team Canada said:

I agree with both statements. I'm highly skeptical of projecting St. Louis jumping to 30% odds just because they won 8 in a row. Anything can happen, but it's fair to say that if they continue on as is, they won't make the playoffs.

Yeah, I just don't see the Cardinals having enough to stay in the race. They're a non-entity to me in the discussion, especially when you look at the NL West and NL East. If the Brewers are faced with a wild card berth, there's going to be a ton of competition from those divisions.

[Brian]

Urgency also, Pirates new manager Don Kelly gets tossed in first game and gets sanding ovation.

[Babe Ruth is Dead]

The Brewers traded two outstanding pitchers for what has amounted to Ortiz and Durbin, Mendoza Line hitters.  Creating holes at ss and 3b besides the damage to the pitching staff. Of course they are a sinking team.  Not so much other division teams are rising.