Why Brewers Should Scratch Freddy Peralta Wednesday to Thwart Red Sox's Lefty-Loaded Lineup

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

 

The Boston Red Sox are going with an extreme approach against Brewers ace Freddy Peralta Wednesday. The first four batters in their lineup (Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, Wilyer Abreu and Marcelo Mayer) are all left-handed batters. It's Sox manager Alex Cora's latest remix of a group stinging from the loss of Alex Bregman, but it's also a gambit. Cora, like many opposing managers, has watched Pat Murphy deploy a quick hook the third time through the order for starting pitchers this year, and he's betting on forcing Murphy to abandon Peralta and go back to a weary bullpen early in a day game, after a night game.

With the Red Sox struggling early in a season that began with high expectations, Cora has to try something like this. He's trying to create an advantage, and he's going about it the right way. Both Duran (144 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since the start of last season; 82 against lefties) and Devers (166, 107) are the type of lefty hitter no righty wants to see a third time, and the Brewers' heavily left-leaning bullpen stands ready. Pushing Peralta out of the game early would play into Cora's hands, though, because the Brewers' relief corps has been so heavily used of late that it's showing cracks in several places.

Really, though, this should be an easy call for the Crew. The countermove is simple: Peralta should be scratched and moved back to start Friday against the Phillies. He's been dealing with a mild groin strain that could use an extra two days of rest, anyway, and this start would be on four days' rest. Making that six would be lovely. Philadelphia manager Rob Thomson could try the same thing Friday with Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott, Max Kepler and/or Brandon Marsh, but that quartet is undermined a bit by the lack of a third hitter who's any real threat—and the Brewers wouldn't gain as much from the switcheroo, as both Schwarber and Harper hit lefties better than do Duran and Devers, let alone the rookie Mayer.

Aaron Ashby gave the Brewers 37 pitches Tuesday, and is down for Wednesday. However, Jared Koenig might have a yellow light on him, and it's a full green on each of Tyler Alexander, Rob Zastryzny, and DL Hall. Murphy should just bullpen his way through the imbalanced, ill-constructed Boston lineup. If ever there were a day to lean right into the tendency to overuse a bullpen, this is it.

Of course, the Red Sox could counter by pinch-hitting for the likes of Abreu, Mayer or David Hamilton with righty bat Rob Refsnyder or switch-hitter Abraham Toro, but they'd be blowing up their own strategy and forced into some tough defensive decisions thereafter. You gain a tactical advantage either way, and in the grand scheme, you also come out ahead in terms of managing the pitching staff. Wednesday would mark a sixth start on four days' rest for Peralta, tying him for the league lead. It would be better to give him the extra two days, and whatever exhaustion the bullpen endures as a result of the strategic pivot could be offset both by a roster move and by the scheduled day off Thursday.

Cora's ploy is based on the disadvantage a team faces when they name a starter everyone knows they don't want to take down too soon. He's trying to put Murphy in a Catch-22, forced either to endure bad mid-game matchups or to admit a failure of confidence in his ace. Instead, the Brewers should pull back Peralta, and force the Red Sox to either make a shocking admission of no-confidence in one of their top hitters in left-on-left situations, or endure their own bad matchups all day long.

This almost surely won't happen. It would be a bit too radical a response, for most baseball people; it would savor of having allowed the opponent the initiative. If played correctly, though, matching Cora's gambit with one of their own could make the Brewers more likely to win both Wednesday and this weekend. It's worth a discussion, anyway.

 

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[Team Canada]

Or at least why not use an opener?