Milwaukee Brewers Playoff Odds Surging, as Team Puts Pedal Down Headed Toward All-Star Break

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

Momentum, they say, is the next day's starting pitcher. That sounds dismissive, but sometimes, it's just a reinforcement of the reality of the thing. Momentum may not be cotton-candy baseball magic, but it's on the Brewers' side in the race for the NL Central crown, anyway—because they always have the better next day's starting pitcher. Since losing to the Cubs on June 17 to fall to 39-35, Pat Murphy's Brewers are 14-5. They've closed the gap between them and the Cubs to 1.5 games, thanks to the arrival of Jacob Misiorowski and the general excellence of their starting rotation.

With Misiorowski installed and their depth starting to feel robust in all areas, the Brewers are changing the computerized minds of projection systems. FanGraphs has them at nearly 75% likely to make the playoffs as of Thursday morning, as the team enjoys an off day before a weekend series against the Nationals to close out the first half.

The climb since mid-June, in that chart, is terrific, but don't undersell the way they managed to tread water during a difficult period from the end of May through that series in Chicago last month. Twice, this year, the team has had to spend roughly 10 days in survival mode. They've succeeded each time, though, and now, they're the hottest team in the National League. The Cubs, meanwhile, are scrambling, with (literally) half the trustworthy starting pitchers the Brewers boast and a lineup that suddenly looks less formidable.

Chicago is still heavily favored in the division. FanGraphs believes the Brewers have come back to life in that race, but not that they've positioned themselves to overcome Chicago. Making the playoffs as a Wild Card entrant would still be a good showing from a Milwaukee team in transition, but it's not their focus. They want to keep changing this graph, and rightfully so.

Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA system is a little more stubbornly pessimistic, but even there, the Brewers have shaken up the Etch-a-Sketch. Their Playoff Odds have shot up to 55.3%, which is up 16.7 percentage points in the last week alone. Prospectus shows Chicago as 90% favorites to win the division, even now, but that feels laughably overconfident now.

The Brewers front office will spend the balance of this week working hard to get the Draft right. It begins Sunday, and the team has a healthy bonus pool to continue bulking up a great farm system. Thereafter, though, their attention has to turn to the trade deadline. This is a team with a rare privilege: a combination of youth, depth, and a dearth of urgent needs that frees them up to do almost whatever they want. It's not in the nature of the Brewers to go all-in on any one season, and this year needn't be the exception—but they should leave the door open to that kind of approach. At the very least, since momentum figures to stay on their side at least until the Cubs fortify their own rotation via trade, the Brewers have a puncher's chance to claim their third straight NL Central title. They can and ought to seize it.

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[sveumrules]

As mentioned in the article the Brewers are 14 W - 5 L since June 19th, the best record in the NL.

But it goes back farther than that. They've really been on a heater since May 18th with their 32 W - 15 L record since then the best in the NL.

But wait. It goes back even farther than that. Since April 1st the Brewers are 53 W - 36 L, which is (you guessed it) the best record in the NL.

They haven't quite erased those first four games & that fifteen game stretch to start May just yet, but they're getting pretty close.

[Brewer77]

This thing is probably going to come down to how aggressive/desperate the Cubs get at the deadline. They need rotation help, but do they get a top of the rotation arm or patch it over with a few more back of the rotation guys?