Milwaukee Brewers Trade Deadline Primer: Who’s Available, at Which Positions?

[Jason Wang]

Image courtesy of © Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Over the weekend, I wrote an article giving a high-level overview of where Milwaukee’s roster stood and what positions could use an upgrade. If you haven’t yet given that article a read, I’d recommend doing so, but in case you’re strapped for time, the overall takeaway was that the team currently has two potentially critical weaknesses: shortstop and the bullpen. So, how do the available players at this year’s deadline help solve those problems?

Let’s start with shortstop. It’s no secret that Joey Ortiz has had his fair share of struggles this season. While the defensive statistics may contradict what fans see every night on television, his offensive output is uncontroversially poor. However, there are two major factors that will likely keep him on the roster for the remainder of the season. First, he’s starting to turn things around at the plate. Here is how his OPS has looked month-by-month.

Month	PA	OPS
March/April	116	.484
May	83	.489
June	90	.748
July	46	.683

While these numbers are hardly otherworldly, they have steadily gotten better. The second factor that works in his favor is the total lack of real upgrades. The shortstops on selling teams are either not for sale (e.g., Gunnar Henderson, Bobby Witt Jr., Corey Seager) or barely—if at all—an upgrade over Ortiz (Taylor Walls, Nick Allen, Ezequiel Tovar). So, ignoring contract concerns altogether, there just aren’t very many realistic options to begin with.

Two players perhaps worth a closer look are Xavier Edwards and Otto López, both of whom are having good seasons with the Marlins. However, both come with plenty of team control, which would drive up Miami’s asking price and would end up creating a middle infield logjam in the future. Furthermore, given his pedigree and remaining team control, Milwaukee is hardly in a rush to ditch Ortiz, even if he has performed less than ideally this year. 

For the Brewers, third base is similarly murk, despite the increased availability of impact talent. Eugenio Suárez and Ryan McMahon are the main names gaining traction, but Milwaukee would hardly go for such expensive and mainstream options. In fact, there’s a lot to suggest that sticking it out with Caleb Durbin might be the move. Like Ortiz, Durbin got off to a rough start at the plate but has shown improvement, albeit at a quicker pace. He posted a .795 OPS in the month of June and has been hot in July, hitting to a .968 OPS. Thus, with the homegrown option on the upswing, there’s little incentive to sacrifice any of the organization’s prospect equity.

The bullpen, however, is one place where there could be real upgrades made. The Brewers already have Trevor Megill, so it’s unlikely they’ll be willing to match the bids of other teams for high-leverage talent like Emmanuel Clase or Jhoan Duran. If anything, the organization’s M.O. is to find a funky guy with an unassuming profile but one or two knockout qualities, and shape him in their own image. Nick Mears and Grant Anderson are two relievers who fit this mold and have been outstanding in their roles this year. 

Jake McKibbin recently proposed Gregory Soto as a possible target who would add another lefty with a great soft contact profile. Reid Detmers is a southpaw who has good whiff and strikeout rates, but has struggled to limit walks and hard contact this year with the Angels.

If Milwaukee wanted to get really spicy, they could go for someone like the Rays’ Mason Montgomery, who profiles as an even more extreme version of Detmers with a 13.2% walk rate and a 9.6% barrel rate. However, his Stuff+ metrics are outstanding, with top-notch grades on his four-seam fastball and slider. He was shaky enough at the big-league level to get optioned in early July, but he could be exactly the type of project the Brewers excel at developing.

The Angels’ Ryan Zeferjahn is another intriguing bullpen option, with brutal surface-level numbers but more appealing underlying qualities. Top-quartile whiff and strikeout rates and excellent Stuff+ grades for his fastball (120) and slider (126) haven’t yet been able to balance out his command issues, but he’d be another possible option for the Brewers to pursue.

While the roster’s relief pitching needs some refining, the rotation seems as stable as ever. Although some believed Freddy Peralta would be moved, Matt Arnold has all but confirmed that he’s here to stay, at least for this year. With Brandon Woodruff back to business and the other three arms holding down the fort, the Brewers have a surplus of starters. Either the team will rock with a six-man rotation, or they'll trade away the excess depth (in the person of either Nestor Cortes or Jose Quintana).

First base is more of a toss-up than any of the aforementioned positions. Rhys Hoskins had been great all year until hitting a complete roadblock in June, managing just a .532 OPS. He hit the injured list with a sprained thumb and isn’t expected to return until August, putting Milwaukee in an uncomfortable position. With Jake Bauers also injured, they’ve temporarily filled the gap by promoting Andrew Vaughn, previously acquired from the White Sox. He has been productive over a small sample, but his last few seasons don’t exactly inspire confidence that he’ll be able to sustain his current performance. 

There are even some rumors that claim Hoskins could be traded, which could mean that Milwaukee chooses to replace him entirely for the remainder of the season. Will Josh Naylor, Ryan O’Hearn, or someone else take his spot, or does the front office still believe in his ability to be productive down the stretch? This, to me, is the biggest question heading into this year’s trade deadline for the Brewers.

A lot of things are clicking for this team. With the help of an 11-game win streak, Milwaukee has caught up to the Chicago Cubs in the standings and are now all but a shoo-in to this year’s playoff picture. Now, the question isn’t so much whether they have the pieces to make it there, as it is whether they have the pieces to make a real run at the World Series. Until the dust from the trade deadline clears, all we can do is sit, wait, and ruminate. 

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[endaround]

If by rumors you mean Jim Bowden making stuff up, sure. But Bowden hasn't had any real inside knowledge from before he fired and definitely not anything in the two decades since.

[Secret Stadium Sauce]

All of Pratt, Wilken, Boeve, Henderson and Crowe are available and can be used in a Zach Neto trade.

 

I've backed off using Made for that trade, you're welcome.