Brewers Avoid Arbitration with Five Players; William Contreras Remains

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

It's time for the Brewers to decide whether they can and should extend William Contreras, and over the next two months, that will be the biggest drama around the team. That became clearer Thursday, as the team agreed to deals with five players to avoid arbitration, leaving just one of their seven arbitration-eligible players without a contract for 2026 and seemingly en route to an arbitration hearing: Contreras.

As they always do, the Brewers made out well in the nickel-and-dime game of securing deals with arbitration-eligible players without overspending. They signed Trevor Megill for $4.7 million, which was $500,000 more than MLB Trade Rumors projected him to earn at the outset of the offseason. That came after they'd paid Jake Bauers $2.7 million in November, topping his projection by $700,000. When they got Brice Turang done for $4.15 million, however, they saved $250,000, and Andrew Vaughn's $7.65 million saves them $150,000. Garrett Mitchell came in at $950,000, which was almost exactly the $1 million projected for him.

The real savings, however, come when one weighs and measures the Nick Mears-for-Ángel Zerpa trade. Mears had been projected to sign for $1.6 million, but the Crew got Zerpa to agree to a deal worth $1.095 million. MLB Trade Rumors had projected Zerpa to earn more than Mears, but Mears ended up with the $1.9 million Zerpa was projected to get. The team saved at least $500,000 in that transaction, gained the optionality of being able to send Zerpa to the minors if they so choose, and believe they upgraded that spot on the bullpen depth chart, anyway.

All told, the team will pay about $250,000 more for their arbitration class than was expected, not counting Contreras, but that's good work when you consider that they had to buy a closer with a high saves total out of a possible hearing and will get at least 1,500 plate appearances from the position players they've already signed. Every penny counts right now, as the team terminated its contract with FanDuel Sports Network and might end up having MLB produce and distribute its broadcasts sooner than expected. They've done well to keep costs down with this group, so far.

Obviously, though, everything hinges on Contreras. Now two years from free agency, he's in line for an eight-figure payday in 2026 and will make at least $25 million before the end of 2027. By not agreeing to a deal before the deadline Thursday, the Brewers moved a step closer to an arbitration hearing with him, which would in and of itself be a significant step toward eventually trading him or losing him via free agency. That was already a looming decision, though. This scrap of news merely brings it to the surface. 

Waiting to see whether Jeferson Quero can be the catcher of the future is a viable option, but it comes loaded with risk. If he proves not to be the backstop the team hopes he can be, on this side of a major injury, they'll be left in scramble mode, with Contreras having all the leverage in negotiations over a potential extension next winter. Such a deal would end up being a market-rate, massive contract, and is probably beyond the Brewers' means. If they want to keep Contreras around beyond 2027, the Brewers probably need to sign him now.

Thus, Thursday began a high-stakes staring contest. Either the sides will agree on a long-term deal, or Contreras is likely to end up on the trade block next winter. Which way they intend to go on that front could even influence the decision about whether to trade Freddy Peralta, so the clock is ticking on multiple major organizational decisions at once. 

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[long ball]

I like Contreras. Really nice player. 
 

I don’t see the brewers extending him (or re-signing him as a free agent). Even if they don’t have faith in Quero or Dinges as primary catcher options, spending big on a catcher in his 30s is not a risk the Brewers can or should take. 
 

I fully expect 2026 to be his last year with the Brewers. 

[dsid74]

"I don’t see the brewers extending him (or re-signing him as a free agent). Even if they don’t have faith in Quero or Dinges as primary catcher options, spending big on a catcher in his 30s is not a risk the Brewers can or should take. "

Unfortunately, this sums it up perfectly.  I don't believe Bill would sign a team friendly deal.  Even if he did, it would be the final 2 years of arbitration and 4 more?  We are probably talking over $100 million.  The TV revenue debacle probably seals his fate.

He just turned 28.  He will be 30 when he begins his free agent years.  He will want to maximize them.  This is most likely his last year with the Brewers.

If that's how they see it, it's all the more reason to push more chips into the pot and go for it this season.  They can recover much of what they spend when they trade Bill next off-season.