Indefensible: Brewers Lose Their Signature Grip En Route to Sixth Straight Loss

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

A crisis continues to brew in the Milwaukee bullpen. The offense continues to produce, but is stretched thin now that three of its four or five most accomplished hitters are on the injured list. It's not easy to win games for the Brewers right now. In fact, it hasn't been this hard in quite some time. Pat Murphy's previous two Brewers teams never lost more than four games in a row. Tuesday night's heartbreaking double-collapse loss to the Blue Jays made six straight 'L's.

When you're in a funk like that—when the bullpen seems exhausted and there are creeping questions about the depth pieces in the rotation and the injury bug won't stop biting—a great team turns to its playmakers. That term is more often used in football and basketball, but baseball has playmakers, too. Over the last few seasons, the Brewers have seen the differences those players can make. Sometimes, it's an incredible feat of sheer athleticism, but often, too, it's a coalescence of skill and great baseball IQ—being aware of space and situation and making the play another player or team might not even think of. This is the team that twice killed the would-be tying run at the plate to end games because of perfectly executed throws and tags. This is the team that seemed to seal up holes and make impossible plays. This is the team that turned a 405-foot fly ball into a ground-ball double play.

That team is broken right now, and no play made that clearer than the final one of the top of the ninth inning Tuesday night. Here it is.

Already, of course, the Blue Jays had scored one run in the eighth inning and two in the ninth, against Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill. Already, they led 5-4, after the Brewers seemed to have a relatively comfortable lead for most of the contest. It was a moment of frustration and resignation for many fans in attendance, and unfortunately, that same dark cloud fell over the players, too. You saw the clip, so you already understand the problem, but let's break it down for better diagnosis.

Ernie Clement hit a sharp two-out single to left field. Kazuma Okamoto had been on second base when the play began, and he took off for third base, where he got the wave. That was a fine play on Toronto's part, given that they already had the lead. There were two outs in the inning; another success at the plate was unlikely. To make sending the runner a sensible decision there, you only have to think there's about a 25% chance that he's safe. 

Here's the problem—or, from the Brewers' perspective, the golden opportunity: Okamoto is slow. His average sprint speed so far this year, according to Statcast, is a woeful 25.4 feet per second. Maybe he's really a bit faster than that, and will show as much as the weather warms up, but so far, Okamoto has shown markedly below-average speed in his first season in the United States. That's what he showed on this play, too. Here's a frame just after Brandon Lockridge gets to the ball in left field. He's already secured it, and Okamoto isn't even at third base yet.

A late stop sign would have posed an unnecessary risk, though. Why do something that might lead to a hamstring pull, at this point in the play? Okamoto continued home, and Lockridge cut loose a strong throw—albeit one a bit toward first base, as has been his wont. Initially, William Contreras does track the ball from a position where he can try to retire Okamoto once the throw comes home, but pretty quickly, he starts moving out into the dirt in front of home plate:

Contreras might have been having a flashback to Sunday, when Lockridge threw a ball with similar verve (though from farther away) and missed well up the first-base line, allowing a trailing Nationals runner to take third base and losing any chance of an out on a medium-depth sacrifice fly.

Unlike the play Sunday, though, this one could have resulted in an easy out at the plate. Lockridge's throw was better; Contreras had a better angle on the throw and the incoming runner; and, again, Okamoto is very slow.

Alas, Contreras had been out there right along with the Brewers pitchers who had stumbled through the final two frames of this game. He was frustrated, and he hasn't been through a week quite like this one in at least three years. In that moment, he was a little bit feral; he got outside himself and lost the command of the situation that usually makes him and his team so great. He turned his back on the runner—literally and figuratively—to field the throw, and turned his eyes toward second base, where Clement was trying to advance.

Look at all this real estate, though. Contreras chose the wrong way to receive the throw for the best chance of tagging Okamoto out, but even if he'd done nothing differently up through the moment captured above, he could easily have wheeled and slapped down a tag in time. If that runner is Byron Buxton or Pete Crow-Armstrong, it's a tougher and riskier task, but Okamoto wasn't moving all that fast as he got close to the plate, either. Contreras had an ocean of time, but not the awareness of it that makes all our time work for us. He snared the ball, took a step to load up, transferred the ball to his throwing hand and let it fly to second—all before Okamoto touched home plate.

Megill (and/or first baseman Jake Bauers) should have been yelling to Contreras to make the tag, instead of throwing toward Clement. Maybe they were, but it doesn't sound like it. He could have had better help. A catcher is meant to make this kind of decision themselves, though, and it's not a 50/50 call that gets answered as if without a preconception on every such play. The run coming home has clear precedence. Just as the Jays sending Okamoto home only required about a 1-in-4 chance to be the right call, Contreras should have tried to tag the runner even if he felt he had only a 1-in-4 chance to get him. In truth, he should have felt at least like he had the better side of a coin flip, even before the ball got to him. It wasn't even going to be a terribly close play.

Contreras's poor read or mental lapse gave the Blue Jays a run. In the bottom of the inning, the Brewers rallied for the two tallies they needed to tie the game and force extras, against Toronto closer Jeff Hoffman. It was a terrific comeback, but who knows? The visitors might have managed that frame differently, with just a one-run edge. It might be that the extra run in the top half wasn't as decisive as it now appears. 

It didn't need to score, though. When things are going against you, in baseball, it's often beyond your control. The game is hard; the other guys have big houses, too. For two years, the Brewers have maintained primacy in the NL Central by being the team who doesn't let bad get worse. They don't let runs score or losses pile up when, through the blessings of the game, they do gain momentary control and can prevent it. That was the most unsettling thing about Tuesday night's loss. With a chance to get some momentum going for the bottom half of the inning and keep the defiicit manageable, Contreras made a boneheaded play. It was very un-Brewerslike. We're going on a week and a half of that, now.

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[H-Factor]

I don't know what is going on with Contreras this season. He's proving to be a real dough head  when it comes to making decisions. Have you noticed how often he challenges ball and strike calls in the 1st inning? Sometimes it's only the 3rd pitch of the game! Does he not know that you might be better off saving those challenges for later in the game or at least with 2 outs and 2 strikes?

Trevor Megill looks like he's washed. I thought Uribe was going to be the closer this year.

[Profbratsch]

If Trevor blows another save to extend the losing streak, I think it will be a foregone conclusion that Uribe becomes the default closer.