How is Jacob Misiorowski Forcing Some of the Ugliest Swings in Baseball?

[Jake McKibbin]

Image courtesy of © Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Jacob Misiorowski is the ace of the Brewers staff. Even after covering 5 1/3 innings of work while feeling visibly sick on Tuesday evening, he's striking out 37.5% of batters on the season, while inducing an expected batting average of just .178. He's faced some misfortune in his 3.32 ERA so far from the quality of contact he's given up, and even then, five of his eight runs allowed have come in his final inning of work in games.

It's not uncommon for pitchers to continue building up and adjusting to the workload of 100-plus pitches, and in half of his outings to date, Misiorowski has been pitching sick. That's not to give an excuse for the young hurler; these are issues many pitchers have to deal with. It does, however, show just what Misiorowski is capable of, and he's made clear strides early on this season. He's allowing fewer barrelled balls and lower exit velocities, and seems to have an altogether different way of using his arsenal.

As you might expect, it all comes down to his fastball. Misiorowski lets this set the tone early, generating above-average ride and extreme velocity from a low release height and big extension down the mound. If you could build a four-seam fastball in a lab, this is what it would look like. 

The interesting part here is that he's finding the zone less often with it. Usually, pitchers use their fastballs to get ahead in counts, hitting the zone 55% of the time or more with them. Misiorowski, who battled command throughout the minors, tried to find more control with his fastball and follow this template, to mixed results. While he found the zone more often (as you can see below) on his four-seamer, his cutter/slider, and his curveball, he was getting less chase and less effective results. He's getting more swing and miss thus far in 2026 across each of his three primary offerings—by getting out of the zone with the heater more, denying hitters early contact.

You might say "Jake, of course they'll miss more if they're swinging on pitches outside the strike zone." You'd be correct, but the way Misiorowski has adapted to make that work—to miss more bats and rack up strikeouts, rather than watching hitters spit on his not-so-tempting out-of-zone pitches and draw lots of walks—shows impressive command, going beyond simple control.

 

Despite some early problems with fatigue (including three consecutive walks to finish his outing against the Red Sox), his walk rate is lower across his first three starts than he managed in 2026. This is a small sample, but by encouraging more chase on his fastball and his slider, he's managing to avoid free passes when fit and firing.

 

The key element here is how much his fastball rises, compared to what a hitter expects. With elite induced vertical break (or spin-related movement) and his low release point, Misiorowski has a fastball that comes in flatter than a hitter perceives. What looks like a strike at the top of the zone can finish several inches above that zone, and hitters have little time to adjust, due to the speed at which the pitch is thrown. 

In 2025, only the slider could really protect against the fastball. The curveball, to land in the strike zone, had to pop out of his hand, tunneling quite differently. If he can live with that fastball slightly above the zone, the results in how his pitches tunnel is stark, as shown by FanGraphs's pitch pairing model.

If Misiorowski is getting chases above the strike zone with his fastball, every offering around his primary pitch can tunnel off that and be in and around the zone for a long time before breaking away. It means hitters have a tougher time identifying the pitch thrown by the time they make their swing decision, and it's resulted in some uglier swings and more whiffs than ever. If that fastball is lower in the zone, all of a sudden the curveball, if tunnelled, becomes a non-factor in the swing decision, and if not tunnelled, it becomes far easier to pick up out of the hand.

It isn't just the swing-and-miss that's been different early on. The bat-tracking data against Misiorowski's arsenal so far has dramatically improved as well:

While there is some small sample size here, Misiorowski has faced big bat speed merchants like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Colson Montgomery, James Wood and Roman Anthony thus far in 2026. His average bat speed faced is down over 1 MPH, while the fast swing rate, attack angles and attack directions all indicate later swings and more uncomfortable at-bats.

Hitters are struggling to access good attack angles with their bat paths. They've shortened their swings to make contact with his fastball, and are late, anyway, with a 4° attack direction going to the opposite field. Placing in the top 5 across each of these six statistics highlights just how uncomfortable hitters are with Misiorowski on the mound. Other leaders in these categories include Nolan McLean, Kevin Gausman, Dylan Cease, Cam Schlittler and Sandy Alcantara. That's elite company, which should be no surprise.

Finally, Misiorowski showed against the Red Sox that he doesn't have to live outside the zone. Knowing he had limited capacity for a large pitch count, Misiorowski pounded the strike zone, particularly with his slider and curveball. He can find the zone when he needs to, but his low in-zone rate so far this season (on top of the success he's had with it) would indicate this is a plan, and one that he's executing effectively to date.

How well it holds up against top offenses like the Dodgers will be fascinating to see, but for now, Misiorwoski is showing serious strides towards becoming a bona fide ace.

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Have you enjoyed watching Misiorowski this year? Have you noticed any real changes? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!

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[CA John]

Jim Bowden predicts his lack of control destines Miz to the bullpen. 🤷‍♂️