Brewer Fanatic 2024 Offseason Top 20 Prospects - No. 5: Tyler Black

5. Tyler Black (Nashville Sounds)

The Brewers took Black with their Competitive Balance Round A pick in 2021. Coming out of Wright State, Black was a small-school, model-based selection. After battling some tough injury luck in his first full season in 2022, Black was able to stay on the field in 2023 and he broke out in a major way at the plate and on the bases, eventually making his way all the way to Triple-A. He began there again in 2024 and continued to put up solid numbers at the plate. He also made his MLB debut, and spent a decent chunk of his time riding the active roster shuttle between Nashville and Milwaukee.

What to Like:
Like most of the recent prospect graduates from the Brewers system, Black plays extremely hard, with a lot of emotion and energy. These aren’t tools that show up as grades on a prospect website, but they do matter to traditional scouts and the Brewers, as an organization, seem to seek these types of players out.

Black’s profile is going to be carried by his bat. At Wright State, he showed some in-game power, hitting 13 home runs in his final season. However, his batted-ball profile didn’t point to a ton of power in his future. He had a max exit velocity of 102.2 while in college. Since 2021, Jacob Wilson and Black are the only two first-round picks out of college that had a 90th percentile exit velocity under 100 MPH. In the first 400 plate appearances of his pro career, that batted ball data appeared to be a more accurate sign of his power than the 13 home runs, as he only hit five home runs in that time period. However, in 2023, he hit 18, and he followed that up with 14 more in 2024.

Black’s power numbers have risen, but his bat-to-ball and strike-recognition abilities have not been sacrificed in the process. He demonstrated this throughout the season, consistently winning ball/strike challenges in Nashville. His 19.8% whiff rate in 2024 was in the 90th percentile in MiLB, and he was able to limit whiffs at an above-average rate against all three main types of pitches (fastballs, breaking balls and offspeed). He did the same in terms of limiting chases outside of the zone against all three main types, posting a 91st-percentile chase rate that was the exact same as his whiff rate, at 19.8%. Those abilities combined to help Black post a strong 13.2% walk rate, to go along with his 18.8% strikeout rate.

While Black did not follow up his ridiculous stolen base total from 2023 (55), he still stole 20 bases while only being caught three times. Players who are on the edge of making it to MLB will often take fewer risks on the bases, in fear of getting injured and missing a chance to get called up. Teams can even instruct players to do that. We will never know if that’s the case with Black, but given his high success rate when he did attempt to steal, it’s safe to assume that he is still very capable of swiping bases. Black possesses closer to above-average speed than plus speed, but he has great instincts and the type of hustle and aggressiveness that will create extra bases.

What to Work On:
While Black has shown home run power, it hasn’t necessarily come by way of hitting the ball all that much harder than he used to. His 90th-percentile exit velocity was 101.7 this past season. That's higher than it was in college, yes, but still a below-average mark for the level. Black gets to his power because, when he hits the ball in the air, he seems to hit the ball at an ideal launch angle, especially to his pull side. This is a great ability to have, but whether it’s sustainable at the MLB level is another question. Isaac Paredes is well-known for his ability to make this sort of profile work, but he hits the ball in the air to the pull side at an insane rate. A whopping 49.3% of the balls Paredes hits in the air are to the pull side. Only 27.7% of balls Black hits in the air are to the pull side. Paredes’s average launch angle was 22.4 degrees, while Black’s was only 13.8 degrees. There’s reason to question whether the home run power that he’s shown at the upper levels of the minor leagues will actually show up at the MLB level with this profile.

The biggest hindrance to Black spending extended time in MLB in 2024 was his inability to find a defensive home. After spending time at second base and third base (as well as getting outfield action) for the first few seasons, Black spent the majority of his time at first base in Nashville this year. Unfortunately, despite being an above-average athlete, Black has been unable to pick up any of these spots on the infield. His hands and defensive instincts just have not improved enough at any spot, and first base was no exception, as he made numerous physical and mental errors at the position. It's certainly possible that Black could improve with even more reps, but despite what Ron Washington might tell Scott Hatteberg in "Moneyball", first base is not an "extremely hard" position to learn. If Black was going to be able to handle it long term, it's likely we would have seen more signs of it in 2024.

What’s next:
Black did spend time in the outfield as the season progressed, and that appears to be his ideal defensive home. The issue for him and the Brewers is that the big-league club does not have any need for more outfielders at the moment. Finding a spot in the infield that he could handle at even a fringe-average level would help him find firmer footing on an MLB roster spot. Black seems like a potential trade candidate this offseason, just due to the lack of room for him right now and the fact that some organizations could afford to use him in the outfield while betting on the bat and the baserunning. If not, he will likely have a similar season in 2025, spending the majority of his time at Triple-A, but also making appearances with the Brewers.

What are your thoughts on Black? What are you hoping to see from him in 2025? Let us know in the comments!

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