Brewers Video
Good swing decisions are the top priority for the Milwaukee Brewers, and that mentality has served them extraordinarily well over the last several seasons. They tend to overachieve at the plate, not only by hitting so well in high-leverage situations but by grinding their way on base in a way you couldn't forecast, if you just sat down and watched them play for a day or two. Lots of Brewers hitters have excellent approaches at the plate, and that has huge value.
In far shorter supply, of course, is power. The Crew finished 16th in MLB in home runs last season, and then watched their leading home-run hitter depart via free agency. Rhys Hoskins was second on the team in dingers, and the only player other than Willy Adames to hit more than 21 of them—and Hoskins will turn 32 on St. Patrick's Day, so there's no guarantee that he will match that production in 2025, either. I expect a big power season from Jackson Chourio, but projection systems are more dour, and even if you mentally chalk up 65 total homers for Chourio and William Contreras, the specter of a shortfall throughout the rest of the lineup looms.
That's why Oliver Dunn is so important. Last year's spring training darling cracked the Opening Day roster because of an injury, but couldn't hold the job, batting just .221/.282/.316 in 104 plate appearances. He struck out 40 times in that brief stint, failed to find the power his swing promised, and then went down with a back strain that effectively ended his season. His very brief stint in the Dominican Winter League did nothing to restore anyone's faltering confidence, either.
Yet, there's no denying what Dunn has the potential to do. Unlike several Brewers whose lack of high-end swing speed sets a hard, low ceiling on their power projection, Dunn has it in him to hit homers in bunches—if he can make enough contact and start to lift the ball more consistently. He's slugged better than .500 in the minor leagues in three straight seasons and was over .600 in the offense-friendly Arizona Fall League in 2023. More concretely, in his short time in the majors last year, he showed bat speed readily comparable to those of the Brewers' other two most promising bat speed dudes: Contreras and Garrett Mitchell.
These distributions hint at the problem for Dunn, which is that he hasn't yet shown the same feel for varying and modulating his swing that Contreras and Mitchell have. When you consistently swing faster than 75 miles per hour, though, you're going to generate some hard contact when you get the barrel to the ball.
That doesn't guarantee that you'll hit it hard in the air, which is the name of the modern game. Dunn has to reduce his strikeout rate, accept his walks, and lift his hardest-hit balls better in order to be a useful regular in the majors, and that's a tall triple order. He might not be able to fill it, which is why the team traded for Caleb Durbin (a player with nothing like this kind of bat speed but plenty of the other things the team prizes, like patience, a feel for contact, and speed) and have retained Andruw Monasterio this winter. Dunn could easily end up with Triple-A Nashville to open the season.
If things break right, however, he could also be a vital contributor to this team. His profile, if he gets right, figures to be similar to that of Jake Bauers. Either player, on the higher end of their spectrum of possible outcomes, could be a slugging threat in the bottom third of the batting order, but whereas playing Bauers means losing the power threat of Hoskins or taking up one of the outfield slots that could go to superior overall players Chourio, Sal Frelick, or Christian Yelich, playing Dunn comes with a comparatively minimal opportunity cost.
With free agents like Brandon Drury and Paul DeJong still out there and various trade possibilities lurking below the horizon, Dunn is by no means locked into that role. It sure looks like he'll get a chance to demonstrate the adjustments he needed last year this spring, though. That could be a boon for the Brewers.
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