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Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first to break the news. After six seasons with the Crew in which he made a case as one of the best pitchers in team history and won a Cy Young Award, Corbin Burnes is gone, a year before he was due to hit free agency.
BREAKING: Orioles close to acquiring Corbin Burnes. Story: https://t.co/FIjwpjhZuI
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) February 2, 2024
In return, the Brewers receive high-end infield prospect Joey Ortiz and pitcher DL Hall. They're also receiving the Orioles' Competitive Balance Round A pick, set a No. 34 overall, in this year's draft. It's a significant bundle of talent, as befits moving a player this important to the franchise. It also leaves a lot of questions about the short-term future of the roster to answer.
Ortiz, 25, is an MLB-ready shortstop whose glove is his carrying tool, which comes with obvious and fascinating (if not altogether comfortable) implications about the future of Willy Adames in Milwaukee. He also has good bat-to-ball skills, and he posted a 90th-percentile exit velocity of 105.3 miles per hour in Triple A last year. That was 48th of 245 batters with at least 300 plate appearances, and it came even as he made contact on swings at the 20th-highest rate in that group. Suffice it to say, there's a lot to be excited about here, and the Brewers won't have to wait long to realize the benefits of adding Ortiz.
Hall has only worked in relief during parts of two big-league seasons, but he's shown the ability to rack up strikeouts at an impressive rate. He's a lefty with a lot of prospect pedigree and immediate upside, be it in the rotation or (more likely) as a new high-leverage relief weapon. His fastball has the same unique sort of explosion, and his slider a semblance of the same electricity, as another big lefty and former Orioles farmhand the Brewers once acquired: Josh Hader. Hall has a really impressive changeup to set off that pitch pairing, though, which is why he might yet blossom into a front-of-the-rotation starter. The Brewers probably intend to try him in that role to begin 2024, at least.
This deal doesn't so much invite us to speculate on Adames's future as demand it. Ortiz was nearly ready even early in 2023. He needs to be in the big leagues in 2024, and he needs to play regularly. He could do so at third base, where the Brewers have no ready-made solution, but his glove would seem almost wasted there. He's at least the equal of Adames with the glove even right now.
Meanwhile, Hall seasons an already-strong pitching staff with the kind of crackling upside that seemed to flicker near the end of 2023, as fans and organization alike faced a future without Woodruff. It comes, however, at a heavy cost. Freddy Peralta is a perfectly credible ace for any starting rotation, but with Wade Miley as the next man on the depth chart and Joe Ross now firmly written into any rotation to open the season, it's a top-heavy unit.
It sure feels like this is one move of a multiple-transaction maneuver, and that we'll struggle to make perfect sense of the Brewers' side of the deal until we see what comes next. Could the Crew unexpectedly jump into the fray for Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell? Will they deal Adames for a pitcher with more than one season of team control? It's impossible to know what the other shoe will look like, but you can feel the change in air pressure behind this trade that means another one is coming down.
There's nothing complicated about the acquisition of that extra draft pick, though. In a year when the Brewers aren't scheduled to make a high selection, this addition conspires with their own competitive-balance pick to position them to push some high-end talent around on the board--just as they did in 2023, spending overslot on players like Eric Bitonti and Cooper Pratt. These picks can only be traded once, so you can now write the Crew into that No. 34 slot in pen. They added three fairly high-value long-term assets to the organization in this deal, which was a hard line drawn months ago by Matt Arnold and company in any trade of Burnes.
Although it's already February, the slow movement of the free-agent market to this point means there's some meat left on the offseason bone. This deal alone proves that, but it's important to keep it in mind, because there is more than one viable path forward for the Brewers, such that they can enter the season still well-positioned to compete in the NL Central even after spinning off their longtime ace.
What are your feelings on the deal? Did the front office get enough? What do you want to see them do next? Let's keep the conversation bubbling.
Research assistance provided by TruMedia.
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