BLOCKBUSTER: Brewers Trade Corbin Burnes to Orioles

[Matthew Trueblood]

In a blockbuster deal a fortnight shy of spring training, the Brewers have traded ace Corbin Burnes. He goes to the Baltimore Orioles, in a trade that reshapes the way many fans will view the 2024 season and beyond.

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first to break the news. After six seasons with the Crew in which he made a case as one of the best pitchers in team history and won a Cy Young Award, Corbin Burnes is gone, a year before he was due to hit free agency.

BREAKING: Orioles close to acquiring Corbin Burnes. Story: https://t.co/FIjwpjhZuI

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) February 2, 2024

In return, the Brewers receive high-end infield prospect Joey Ortiz and pitcher DL Hall. They're also receiving the Orioles' Competitive Balance Round A pick, set a No. 34 overall, in this year's draft. It's a significant bundle of talent, as befits moving a player this important to the franchise. It also leaves a lot of questions about the short-term future of the roster to answer.

Ortiz, 25, is an MLB-ready shortstop whose glove is his carrying tool, which comes with obvious and fascinating (if not altogether comfortable) implications about the future of Willy Adames in Milwaukee. He also has good bat-to-ball skills, and he posted a 90th-percentile exit velocity of 105.3 miles per hour in Triple A last year. That was 48th of 245 batters with at least 300 plate appearances, and it came even as he made contact on swings at the 20th-highest rate in that group. Suffice it to say, there's a lot to be excited about here, and the Brewers won't have to wait long to realize the benefits of adding Ortiz.

Hall has only worked in relief during parts of two big-league seasons, but he's shown the ability to rack up strikeouts at an impressive rate. He's a lefty with a lot of prospect pedigree and immediate upside, be it in the rotation or (more likely) as a new high-leverage relief weapon. His fastball has the same unique sort of explosion, and his slider a semblance of the same electricity, as another big lefty and former Orioles farmhand the Brewers once acquired: Josh Hader. Hall has a really impressive changeup to set off that pitch pairing, though, which is why he might yet blossom into a front-of-the-rotation starter. The Brewers probably intend to try him in that role to begin 2024, at least.

This deal doesn't so much invite us to speculate on Adames's future as demand it. Ortiz was nearly ready even early in 2023. He needs to be in the big leagues in 2024, and he needs to play regularly. He could do so at third base, where the Brewers have no ready-made solution, but his glove would seem almost wasted there. He's at least the equal of Adames with the glove even right now.

Meanwhile, Hall seasons an already-strong pitching staff with the kind of crackling upside that seemed to flicker near the end of 2023, as fans and organization alike faced a future without Woodruff. It comes, however, at a heavy cost. Freddy Peralta is a perfectly credible ace for any starting rotation, but with Wade Miley as the next man on the depth chart and Joe Ross now firmly written into any rotation to open the season, it's a top-heavy unit.

It sure feels like this is one move of a multiple-transaction maneuver, and that we'll struggle to make perfect sense of the Brewers' side of the deal until we see what comes next. Could the Crew unexpectedly jump into the fray for Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell? Will they deal Adames for a pitcher with more than one season of team control? It's impossible to know what the other shoe will look like, but you can feel the change in air pressure behind this trade that means another one is coming down.

There's nothing complicated about the acquisition of that extra draft pick, though. In a year when the Brewers aren't scheduled to make a high selection, this addition conspires with their own competitive-balance pick to position them to push some high-end talent around on the board--just as they did in 2023, spending overslot on players like Eric Bitonti and Cooper Pratt. These picks can only be traded once, so you can now write the Crew into that No. 34 slot in pen. They added three fairly high-value long-term assets to the organization in this deal, which was a hard line drawn months ago by Matt Arnold and company in any trade of Burnes.

Although it's already February, the slow movement of the free-agent market to this point means there's some meat left on the offseason bone. This deal alone proves that, but it's important to keep it in mind, because there is more than one viable path forward for the Brewers, such that they can enter the season still well-positioned to compete in the NL Central even after spinning off their longtime ace.

What are your feelings on the deal? Did the front office get enough? What do you want to see them do next? Let's keep the conversation bubbling.

Research assistance provided by TruMedia.

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[Rick Daltons Flamethrower]

Great news! Matt Arnold is making magic. An MLB ready SS with 105 bat velocity screams awesome! Small Market Magic brewing in Milwaukee.

[Harold Hutchison]

Ortiz at least platoons at second and/or third. Maybe an eventual Adames replacement?

[Brock Beauchamp]

This is bonkers. All of this happened within five minutes of me putting down my phone and putting my kids to bed. I come back 45 minutes later and ALL HELL HAS BROKEN LOOSE.

[Brock Beauchamp]

[Sugarrayray]

I remember wanting the Brewers to draft DL Hall. The Brewers pitching magic might be able to get him to reach his starting potential, but its so tempting to let him fly as a lefty reliever.

[biedergb]

OK a first round pick, and Orioles top 10 rated prospect (#7 on BA, #9 on BP, #6 on MLB), a MLB ready and previously rated top 5-10 prospect in Orioles in 2022/2023.

Yeah an OK haul. I was hoping for more, but I assume other teams did not want to pay more for a 1 year rental (albeit a Cy Young worthy one year rental).

Not sure the trade deadline would get the team more assets as the desperation of trade deadline vs 2-3 month rental is a debate. But I would have hoped for one of the 5 Orioles in the top 100. Ortiz must be in the 100-150 range, putting him on par with Lara/Wilken I would assume.

Burnes won a Cy Young, and threw the second no hitter. Sadly the Burnes/Woodruff years (2020-2023) were somewhat wasted due to lack of hitting production. Which now the team is focusing on.

2024 will be a retool year, and if productive like 2017, maybe a bigger offseason next year.

Adames will be moved - maybe during the season if his production picks up. Maybe they can extend Devin, otherwise he will be the next.

[Matthew Trueblood]

2 minutes ago, Sugarrayray said:

I remember wanting the Brewers to draft DL Hall. The Brewers pitching magic might be able to get him to reach his starting potential, but its so tempting to let him fly as a lefty reliever.

I'll say one thing: If Craig were still here, he's a reliever, and he's the heir to the Airbender almost right away, Uribe be damned. I think now we get a test of whether the org thinks along the same lines as Counsell in that way, organically.

[Rick Daltons Flamethrower]

This was on Baseball America site: (pay attention to the new Brewer Hall on the list of best tools)

Best Tools

Best Hitter for Average: Jackson Holliday
Best Power Hitter: Samuel Basallo
Best Strike-Zone Discipline: Jackson Holliday
Fastest Baserunner: Enrique Bradfield Jr.
Best Athlete: Jackson Holliday
Best Fastball: DL Hall
Best Curveball: Trace Bright
Best Slider: DL Hall
Best Changeup: DL Hall
Best Control: Alex Pham
Best Defensive Catcher: Silas Ardoin
Best Defensive Infielder: Joey Ortiz
Best Infield Arm: Coby Mayo
Best Defensive Outfielder: Enrique Bradfield Jr.
Best Outfield Arm: Jud Fabian

[Rick Daltons Flamethrower]

This is from the Just Baseball site related to the new Brewer SS Ortiz:

Joey Ortiz – SS – (MLB)
Height/Weight: 5’10″, 185 | Bat/Throw: R/R | 4th Round (108), 2019 (BAL) | ETA: 2024

HIT    RAW POWER    GAME POWER    RUN    FIELD    FV
55/55    50/50    45/45    55/55    60/60    55
An impressive defender who makes a ton of contact, Ortiz is a well-rounded shortstop who has added some thump.

Offense
Ortiz starts with a slightly open and upright stance before getting into his back side with a controlled leg kick. He repeats the move well and will even cut down on the leg kick a bit with two strikes.

An athletic hitter, Ortiz controls his body well and makes a ton of contact with a flat swing that lives in the zone. His 89% zone contact rate was one of the better marks in the Orioles organization, and his spray charts show color foul line to foul line.

A shoulder injury hampered his swing a bit in the early parts of the 2022 season, but Ortiz went on to hit .347/.413/.610 over his final 70 games of the season between Double-A and Triple-A. Ortiz carried the momentum into 2023, seeing his average exit velocity jump by a whopping six mph to 91 mph while his 90th percentile exit velocity rose to 106 MPH.

Though the exit velocities have jumped near the plus territory, it has resulted in more doubles for Ortiz rather than homers. His flat swing helps him post fantastic contact rates, but his average launch angle of five degrees makes it hard to leave the yard as much as other players with his EVs.

Ortiz’s feel for the barrel and control of his body helps him put up strong numbers against all types of pitches, posting an OPS above .800 against non-fastballs at the upper levels. His approach and swing decisions could improve a bit, but this is a common theme with plus hit tool prospects.

Much like the other aspects of his offensive game, Ortiz’s chase rate improved as the year went on. If he continues on his track, Ortiz is a high batting average bat who keeps the strikeouts low, hits plenty of doubles and mixes in around 15 homers.

Defense/Speed
A good athlete with excellent footwork, Ortiz is rangy and seems to always get his body in the right place to make a play. He is comfortable covering ground to his left and right and has the arm strength and adjustability to make throws from all angles. He is a plus defender who should have no problem providing value with the leather at short, but can also play all over the infield.

Though he’s not aggressive on the base paths, Ortiz is an above average runner and provides some value there.

Outlook
Ortiz’s defensive prowess and high floor bat have helped him leapfrog some exciting prospects in the Orioles system. While he is a bit on the older side as a 25-year-old, he is a high probability regular with enough value on both sides of the ball to be an above average big league shortstop if the bat translates. It seems like some improvements to his approach could be the final piece to making that happen.

[Sugarrayray]

1 hour ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I'll say one thing: If Craig were still here, he's a reliever, and he's the heir to the Airbender almost right away, Uribe be damned. I think now we get a test of whether the org thinks along the same lines as Counsell in that way, organically.

 Very interesting points to be sure. You are right on the money with Craig. These types of things will be interesting to watch for change in the near future.

[jay87shot]

I am in between here. After signing Hoskins, I was excited to go for it. Ortiz, Hall, and a pick is 3 interesting pieces but nothing high end.

Ortiz is solid but doesn't have much power or speed, kind of contact/defense prospect. Maybe a super utility guy this year and he and Turang make a solid MI for a while. 

Hall has a top notch arm and will be a great reliever. I still would try to turn him into a starter though just to maximize value. This might make trading high on Hoby a possiblity.

The comp pick is great but to be honest I would have preferred an equivalent prospect a bit further along, however the prospect that would fit that value is probably Dylan Beavers who we possibility.

 

[Harold Hutchison]

Williams, Hall, Uribe, and Misiorowski (late season call-up) just became the 2024 Nasty Boys.

That said, finding out Ethan Small was designated for assignment was, to me, disappointing. I probably would have dropped Bukauskas, Jahmai Jones, or Chris Roller instead.

[Profbratsch]

11 hours ago, Sugarrayray said:

I remember wanting the Brewers to draft DL Hall. The Brewers pitching magic might be able to get him to reach his starting potential, but its so tempting to let him fly as a lefty reliever.

Perhaps he will be a newer version of Brent Suter...

[Jake McKibbin]

Such high ceilings in areas of need... This trade could be great or shocking and we probably won't know for at least a year. Though if Burnes gets injured early doors... I like it, but don't think anyone's gotten fleeced

[Verified Member]

I like it!! Bures was going to leave next year and we got a great return. Excited to see the next move!!

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, Verified Member said:

I like it!! Bures was going to leave next year and we got a great return. Excited to see the next move!!

Welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

[Jack]

11 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Such high ceilings in areas of need... This trade could be great or shocking and we probably won't know for at least a year. Though if Burnes gets injured early doors... I like it, but don't think anyone's gotten fleeced

It really makes no difference to the Brewers if he gets hurt or not.  I'm not disagreeing with you though.  The Brewers chances of winning it all, even with Burnes, were slim at best, and their chances of being able to afford him in Free Agency were nil.  

Under those circumstances, trading Burnes made far too much sense for it to not happen.  If you subscribe to that perspective (as, I think, we both do), the only question is the return,  Last night, I hated it.  I really wanted Mayo in the deal.  This morning, I'd changed my mind.  I still wanted Mayo, but a high-ceiling LH (hopefully) starting pitcher, a gold-glove calibre SS who slashed .321/.378/.507 at AAA last season and, effectively, getting the comp pick they would have gotten for Burnes a year early isn't a bad return for one year of Burnes.

It helped me to remember that with Hoskins being signed, and Black likely making the team this year, the need for Mayo wasn't as great as it had been.  Plus trading Adames along with a surplus OF could help bolster the pitching a little...  🙂