Brewer Fanatic's Milwaukee Brewers Trade Deadline Preview: Who's Needed, Who's Available?

They won’t be in on any of those players.

1.) Canha has a club option for ‘24 at 11.5 million dollars or a 2 million dollar buy out. Doesn’t make sense for Milwaukee, because the Mets are not simply going to give a productive controllable player away, and  the Brewers are unlikely to pick up an 11.5 million dollar club option, and theoretical cost only goes up if the Brewers ask the Mets to kick in cash.

2.) Hernandez- the Mariners are six games back in their division and five in the wild card, they probably don’t sell with 36 of their remaining 69 games against losing clubs including 9 against KC and Oakland. Milwaukee likely isn’t interested in Hernandez because they already have a litany of low OBP hitters, high strikeout hitters. 
 

3.) Candelario- would fit nicely on the Brewers but would also fit in Miami, Philadelphia, Minnesota, etc. Therefore, the demand alone will likely make it too rich for the Brewers’ blood. 
 

4.) Goldschmidt— this one I assumed was a joke. He’s owed 36+ million dollars between now and the end of 2024. So, he’s out for money reasons alone. Plus,  Goldschmidt has 10/5 rights, so even if the Cardinals want to trade him, he gets to decide for whom he plays. 
 

Eloy Jimenez- this one also falls into the category of an assumed joke. A 26 year old hitter with a career OPS of .822 and under contract for 3+ seasons. The Brewers GM already said they’re not going to trade the future for players at the deadline, which is likely the type of capital it would take to get the White Sox to even listen. 
 

Finally, Seth Brown - another low OBP hitter who smacks some homers. The Brewers would simply be ahead to wait for Rowdy and Anderson to get healthy than trade for another player of the same skill set.

I don’t expect much from the Brewers at the deadline- probably some low profile relief pitchers, maybe someone like Tommy Pham or flawed players who have one of the traits the Brewers look for: defensive versatility, ability to hit LHP, low strike out numbers. 

Odd how the concept of C.J. Cron provokes such apathy amongst Brewer fans. He's heating up and getting healthy, and presumably wouldn't cost anything significant as a rental.

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

They won’t be in on any of those players.

1.) Canha has a club option for ‘24 at 11.5 million dollars or a 2 million dollar buy out. Doesn’t make sense for Milwaukee, because the Mets are not simply going to give a productive controllable player away, and  the Brewers are unlikely to pick up an 11.5 million dollar club option, and theoretical cost only goes up if the Brewers ask the Mets to kick in cash.

2.) Hernandez- the Mariners are six games back in their division and five in the wild card, they probably don’t sell with 36 of their remaining 69 games against losing clubs including 9 against KC and Oakland. Milwaukee likely isn’t interested in Hernandez because they already have a litany of low OBP hitters, high strikeout hitters. 
 

3.) Candelario- would fit nicely on the Brewers but would also fit in Miami, Philadelphia, Minnesota, etc. Therefore, the demand alone will likely make it too rich for the Brewers’ blood. 
 

4.) Goldschmidt— this one I assumed was a joke. He’s owed 36+ million dollars between now and the end of 2024. So, he’s out for money reasons alone. Plus,  Goldschmidt has 10/5 rights, so even if the Cardinals want to trade him, he gets to decide for whom he plays. 
 

Eloy Jimenez- this one also falls into the category of an assumed joke. A 26 year old hitter with a career OPS of .822 and under contract for 3+ seasons. The Brewers GM already said they’re not going to trade the future for players at the deadline, which is likely the type of capital it would take to get the White Sox to even listen. 
 

Finally, Seth Brown - another low OBP hitter who smacks some homers. The Brewers would simply be ahead to wait for Rowdy and Anderson to get healthy than trade for another player of the same skill set.

I don’t expect much from the Brewers at the deadline- probably some low profile relief pitchers, maybe someone like Tommy Pham or flawed players who have one of the traits the Brewers look for: defensive versatility, ability to hit LHP, low strike out numbers. 

You've taken a very pessimistic to the Brewers perspective view on every item you've mentioned here. You might try to say you're attempting to take an unbiased viewpoint, but it seems very skewed intentionally away from us.

Canha, he's 34, he's on an $11.5M deal this year and has the noted option for next year. As primarily a below average defensively corner outfielder, he's cracked 800 OPS once in his career, 5 years ago. I'm not so sure there's going to be a line of people wanting to pay him $11.5M next year. I don't really want the Brewers to get him because I'd prefer we aim higher, the argument that a deal can't happen because he's a controllable talented player is a weird argument.

Hernandez, I agreed with this until you're snarky comment about the Brewers litany of low OBP high K hitters. We don't actually have a lot of players that fit that mold, a few guys have underperformed this season and have low OBP for that reason...but we don't have many that, when things are going right, are in the 28-30% k rate with OBP under 320.

Jimenez, are there really going to be teams lining up for an 822 OPS(5.6 WAR over 5 years) that's having a down year, has struggled to stay healthy his entire career, and will be quite expensive next year and even moreso if the options are exercised(16.5 and 18.5). His cost would likely not be nearly as high as you think, but for that reason he also probably doesn't move because I don't think the White Sox are inclined to sell low.

How would you say low strike out numbers is a trait the Brewers look for when you previously commented on our litany of high strikeout hitters? Sounds like you contradicted yourself in your own post. I also don't really see the Brewers targeting pitchers, we have quite a few reinforcements coming and pitching has been a strength.

12 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

You've taken a very pessimistic to the Brewers perspective view on every item you've mentioned here. You might try to say you're attempting to take an unbiased viewpoint, but it seems very skewed intentionally away from us.

Canha, he's 34, he's on an $11.5M deal this year and has the noted option for next year. As primarily a below average defensively corner outfielder, he's cracked 800 OPS once in his career, 5 years ago. I'm not so sure there's going to be a line of people wanting to pay him $11.5M next year. I don't really want the Brewers to get him because I'd prefer we aim higher, the argument that a deal can't happen because he's a controllable talented player is a weird argument.

Hernandez, I agreed with this until you're snarky comment about the Brewers litany of low OBP high K hitters. We don't actually have a lot of players that fit that mold, a few guys have underperformed this season and have low OBP for that reason...but we don't have many that, when things are going right, are in the 28-30% k rate with OBP under 320.

Jimenez, are there really going to be teams lining up for an 822 OPS(5.6 WAR over 5 years) that's having a down year, has struggled to stay healthy his entire career, and will be quite expensive next year and even moreso if the options are exercised(16.5 and 18.5). His cost would likely not be nearly as high as you think, but for that reason he also probably doesn't move because I don't think the White Sox are inclined to sell low.

How would you say low strike out numbers is a trait the Brewers look for when you previously commented on our litany of high strikeout hitters? Sounds like you contradicted yourself in your own post. I also don't really see the Brewers targeting pitchers, we have quite a few reinforcements coming and pitching has been a strength.

TBF, this poster has been pounding the sell drum the whole season. 

39 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

You've taken a very pessimistic to the Brewers perspective view on every item you've mentioned here. You might try to say you're attempting to take an unbiased viewpoint, but it seems very skewed intentionally away from us.

Canha, he's 34, he's on an $11.5M deal this year and has the noted option for next year. As primarily a below average defensively corner outfielder, he's cracked 800 OPS once in his career, 5 years ago. I'm not so sure there's going to be a line of people wanting to pay him $11.5M next year. I don't really want the Brewers to get him because I'd prefer we aim higher, the argument that a deal can't happen because he's a controllable talented player is a weird argument.

Hernandez, I agreed with this until you're snarky comment about the Brewers litany of low OBP high K hitters. We don't actually have a lot of players that fit that mold, a few guys have underperformed this season and have low OBP for that reason...but we don't have many that, when things are going right, are in the 28-30% k rate with OBP under 320.

Jimenez, are there really going to be teams lining up for an 822 OPS(5.6 WAR over 5 years) that's having a down year, has struggled to stay healthy his entire career, and will be quite expensive next year and even moreso if the options are exercised(16.5 and 18.5). His cost would likely not be nearly as high as you think, but for that reason he also probably doesn't move because I don't think the White Sox are inclined to sell low.

How would you say low strike out numbers is a trait the Brewers look for when you previously commented on our litany of high strikeout hitters? Sounds like you contradicted yourself in your own post. I also don't really see the Brewers targeting pitchers, we have quite a few reinforcements coming and pitching has been a strength.

It’s not pessimism, it’s realism. Who did the Brewers add at the deadline last year? Matt Bush and Trevor Rosenthal were picked up for essentially nothing. They added Taylor Rogers as part of the Hader deal. 
 

In ‘21 they added Escobar for essentially nothing again, and Daniel Norris for Reese Olson, who has been a nice surprise this year, but at the time was a High A pitcher without eye popping stats. 

So in my opinion expecting them to land a big name player or two is a little unrealistic in light of how they have operated in the past and their own GM’s recent comments. 

As to Canha the argument is not that he’s controllable for ‘24, its price. He’s still owed 5+ million or so this year and a 2 million buyout (That’s not cheap for a team like Milwaukee). Second, because he’s not a rental, it is not the same as the typical situation where non-contenders are shipping out expiring contracts to avoid cost. It’s not pessimistic, the reality is there doesn’t seem to be much surplus value there.

As for Hernandez, check the stat sheet the Brewers have Tellez, Turang, Adames, Wiemer, Perkins and Tapia as regular or semi-regular players all with OBPs under .300. Tellez, Adames, Turang and Wiemer are all striking out at or close to a 40% clip. That’s half the line up.

Elloy Jimenez a 26 year old with 83 homers in 378 MLB games and under contract through 2026 is going to have incredible value even if he’s hurt almost as often as Buxton in Minnesota. That’s why the White Sox aren’t likely going to move him, he’s part of their core and they’re going to retool for ‘24 not tear it down.
 

As for the final comments, if you don’t think the Brewers are shopping for relief pitching  then I wonder how closely you follow baseball. All contenders shop for it and the Brewers specifically add it every July when they’re a buyer:  Bush, Rosenthal, Rogers, Norris, Curtiss, Lyles, Pomeranz, Gio Gonzalez, Soria, K-Rod, Broxton, Linebrink etc etc.

Finally, of course they’re going to look to add contact hitters because they already have too many players that have trouble making contact.

13 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

It’s not pessimism, it’s realism. Who did the Brewers add at the deadline last year? Matt Bush and Trevor Rosenthal were picked up for essentially nothing. They added Taylor Rogers as part of the Hader deal. 
 

In ‘21 they added Escobar for essentially nothing again, and Daniel Norris for Reese Olson, who has been a nice surprise this year, but at the time was a High A pitcher without eye popping stats. 

So in my opinion expecting them to land a big name player or two is a little unrealistic in light of how they have operated in the past and their own GM’s recent comments. 

As to Canha the argument is not that he’s controllable for ‘24, its price. He’s still owed 5+ million or so this year and a 2 million buyout (That’s not cheap for a team like Milwaukee). Second, because he’s not a rental, it is not the same as the typical situation where non-contenders are shipping out expiring contracts to avoid cost. It’s not pessimistic, the reality is there doesn’t seem to be much surplus value there.

As for Hernandez, check the stat sheet the Brewers have Tellez, Turang, Adames, Wiemer, Perkins and Tapia as regular or semi-regular players all with OBPs under .300. Tellez, Adames, Turang and Wiemer are all striking out at or close to a 40% clip. That’s half the line up.

Elloy Jimenez a 26 year old with 83 homers in 378 MLB games and under contract through 2026 is going to have incredible value even if he’s hurt almost as often as Buxton in Minnesota. That’s why the White Sox aren’t likely going to move him, he’s part of their core and they’re going to retool for ‘24 not tear it down.
 

As for the final comments, if you don’t think the Brewers are shopping for relief pitching  then I wonder how closely you follow baseball. All contenders shop for it and the Brewers specifically add it every July when they’re a buyer:  Bush, Rosenthal, Rogers, Norris, Curtiss, Lyles, Pomeranz, Gio Gonzalez, Soria, K-Rod, Broxton, Linebrink etc etc.

Finally, of course they’re going to look to add contact hitters because they already have too many players that have trouble making contact.

 

The Brewers situation this year is entirely different to prior years when we've targeted relievers. In the next few weeks, we'll be wanting to add 2-3 mlb arms and not have 2-3 guys that deserve to be sent down. Ashby, Lauer, Strezlecki, etc could come  back once healthy or once they re-figure it out later in August as well. We're in a much different spot than last year, where sometimes we had trouble getting the ball to Williams/Hader...and also specifically considering we traded Hader for value. It's certainly possible we add one arm, but I doubt it and think it's more likely we utilize all outgoing resources to improve run production.

Canha could effectively be a rental if nobody wants him for $11.5M. It's very possible that's the case as he enters his age 35 season. Also the season is more than half over, any acquiring team would owe closer to 1/3 of his salary if traded at the deadline.

You're completely missing the point on Hernandez in that you're mischaracterizing the Brewers hitters. Hernandez has had a successful career with a lowish OBP and near 30% k rate. That profile works when you can hit for average and power. The Brewers don't have a "litany" of players that fit that profile. Of the guys you mentioned, Tapia/Perkins is lazy and you know it. They are below replacement level players due to injuries and will be replaced before the deadline. Turang is not a low OBP high k hitters, he hasn't been in the minors and once established won't have that type of profile. Tellez and Adames both have higher career OBP and lower career k rate than Hernandez. Wiemer could have a fairly similar profile to Hernandez with the primary difference being a GG defender while Hernandez is meh on defense. Bottom line, we don't have a "litany" of hitters that profile similar to Hernandez. We have a few guys with lower OBP's due to underperforming or being below replacement level players is a much more accurate characterization.

Jimenez, so you pick one stat(which as a stand alone stat doesn't say much) to justify him as this super valuable commodity. I'll add another, because I'm a helper. Jimenez has 251 rbi in 378 games. That would be 108 over a full season. What a player! You completely and conveniently ignore the fact that his controlled seasons are all going to be expensive. The option aspect has value, but if he hits to career norms and you exercise the options you're paying a DH $50M over 3 years to post a low 800s OPS. That's maybe market value? Maybe? What's a 1.5 WAR DH worth anyway? I bet the Brewers could entice the White Sox for far less than you think, if we were inclined.

10 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Tellez: 69 K / 288 PA = 24.0 K%
Adames: 89 K / 362 PA = 24.6 K%
Turang: 55 K / 230 PA = 23.9 K%
Wiemer: 87 K / 313 PA = 27.8 K%

Not to mention each of them are actually trending even better than that the last 30 days:

Tellez: 18.2 K%
Adames: 19.6 K%
Turang: 13.2 K%
Wiemer: 22.4 K%

Not sure where "at or close to a 40% clip" came from...

Lets take a look at two recent trades to shore up the offense. When they acquired Adames, he was a regular at TB but was blocking one of the top prospects in baseball. Tellez was a former starter (or semi-regular) who was relegated to the minors largely due to being passed up by Vlad JR. While I follow the Brewers' system closely I'm not as attuned to other teams' prospects as I once was. Any vets pushed out (or about to be) by a phenom? That might be a list to scour. It also most likely would be someone that wouldn't cost one of your better prospects, which rightfully is important to Arnold.

16 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

They touched on this during the latest MKE Tailgate podcast with @Smichaelis9 and I agree with their take:

It doesn't make sense to derail Misiorowski's development - he is probably a top ten pitching prospect after the season - for 25 innings out of the bullpen. You keep that guy on his development schedule and do not deviate from it. He's simply too good and potentially too valuable.

The scenarios that involve Misiorowski coming up in late August would involve probably 4 or 5 relievers/starters either getting hurt or completely losing it and getting creamed...in between the trade deadline and August 31. That scenario would also include Misiorowski being healthy/effective/improving over the next 2 months. It's tough to imagine all those things lining up. Also worth noting, Misiorowski is probably going to have a fairly low innings limit and having a young guy potentially pitching into late October and starting ramp up again in early March is not great for a young electric arm.

Yuck, if these are the kinds of bats they are going to be looking at, then why even bother? Not a single one of these guys are a needle mover. Slight upgrade? Possibly. Go big or go home. You might say, "there are no big bats available". There are if you offer enough. Everyone has a price. Since the Brewers refuse to sign big bats in FA, then it's long past time they acquire one(or two) via trade. Now, add one of these guys to a headliner bat? Sure, I guess that would be fine. But not if they are your main options. 

3 hours ago, KeithStone53151 said:

The Brewers situation this year is entirely different to prior years when we've targeted relievers. In the next few weeks, we'll be wanting to add 2-3 mlb arms and not have 2-3 guys that deserve to be sent down. Ashby, Lauer, Strezlecki, etc could come  back once healthy or once they re-figure it out later in August as well. We're in a much different spot than last year, where sometimes we had trouble getting the ball to Williams/Hader...and also specifically considering we traded Hader for value. It's certainly possible we add one arm, but I doubt it and think it's more likely we utilize all outgoing resources to improve run production.

Canha could effectively be a rental if nobody wants him for $11.5M. It's very possible that's the case as he enters his age 35 season. Also the season is more than half over, any acquiring team would owe closer to 1/3 of his salary if traded at the deadline.

You're completely missing the point on Hernandez in that you're mischaracterizing the Brewers hitters. Hernandez has had a successful career with a lowish OBP and near 30% k rate. That profile works when you can hit for average and power. The Brewers don't have a "litany" of players that fit that profile. Of the guys you mentioned, Tapia/Perkins is lazy and you know it. They are below replacement level players due to injuries and will be replaced before the deadline. Turang is not a low OBP high k hitters, he hasn't been in the minors and once established won't have that type of profile. Tellez and Adames both have higher career OBP and lower career k rate than Hernandez. Wiemer could have a fairly similar profile to Hernandez with the primary difference being a GG defender while Hernandez is meh on defense. Bottom line, we don't have a "litany" of hitters that profile similar to Hernandez. We have a few guys with lower OBP's due to underperforming or being below replacement level players is a much more accurate characterization.

Jimenez, so you pick one stat(which as a stand alone stat doesn't say much) to justify him as this super valuable commodity. I'll add another, because I'm a helper. Jimenez has 251 rbi in 378 games. That would be 108 over a full season. What a player! You completely and conveniently ignore the fact that his controlled seasons are all going to be expensive. The option aspect has value, but if he hits to career norms and you exercise the options you're paying a DH $50M over 3 years to post a low 800s OPS. That's maybe market value? Maybe? What's a 1.5 WAR DH worth anyway? I bet the Brewers could entice the White Sox for far less than you think, if we were inclined.

 

But their situation is no different, they add arms every year. Why? Exactly for the reason you cite,  so not to burn down the reliable back end guys, and to not have to count on Uribe, Strzelecki, Lauer or players like Ashby potentially coming back from a major arm/shoulder injury. 

If you really believe they are going to drastically remake their lineup at the deadline, I can only say prepare to be disappointed you haven’t been paying attention to how the team truly operates. 

6 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

But their situation is no different, they add arms every year. Why? Exactly for the reason you cite,  so not to burn down the reliable back end guys, and to not have to count on Uribe, Strzelecki, Lauer or players like Ashby potentially coming back from a major arm/shoulder injury. 

If you really believe they are going to drastically remake their lineup at the deadline, I can only say prepare to be disappointed you haven’t been paying attention to how the team truly operates. 

 

Because we have all these hitters striking out 40% of the time right?

It's also worth noting we have a different GM this year...

4 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

They touched on this during the latest MKE Tailgate podcast with @Smichaelis9 and I agree with their take:

It doesn't make sense to derail Misiorowski's development - he is probably a top ten pitching prospect after the season - for 25 innings out of the bullpen. You keep that guy on his development schedule and do not deviate from it. He's simply too good and potentially too valuable.

Put him on the Burnes/Woodruff plan. We need to take shots when we have shots. We have a shot this year and he could be 6th/ 7th inning guy.
Development for elite arms like him could be challenging him in relief at MLB level rather than racking up more inning late in a AA season.

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Because we have all these hitters striking out 40% of the time right?

It's also worth noting we have a different GM this year...

“Meet the new boss, same as the old boss”…

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Here are our top ten players by number of PAs with their wRC+ at the ASB last year…

Yelich (108 wRC+), Tellez (110 wRC+), Cutch (98 wRC+), Adames (114 wRC+), Wong (97 wRC+), Urias (99 wRC+), Jace (113 wRC+), Renfroe (113 wRC+), Taylor (94 wRC+) and Omar (95 wRC+)

Ten guys at or around league average. Hard to make meaningful gains there.

Here are our top ten players this year by number of PAs with their ASB wRC+…

Yelich (128 wRC+), Adames (91 wRC+), Anderson (90 wRC+), Wiemer (88 wRC+), Contreras (112 wRC+), Rowdy (79 wRC+), Miller (98 wRC+), Turang (55 wRC+), Winker (69 wRC+), Caratini (105 wRC+).

There are a three easy spots to upgrade there compared to last year.

Ok, I don’t know what the point is in relation to my post? Could they upgrade their hitters sure, never said they couldn’t.

What matters is when the GM says most improvement is going to have to come from within, and they do not intend to trade from tomorrow. That means, to me anyways, they’re going bargain hunting at the deadline: players they can get in exchange for offering some salary relief and 2nd tier prospects

Are they going to get starting caliber position players when that’s what they have to shop with? Time will tell, but I’m not holding my breath.