Is Brice Turang Taking That "Quantum Leap"?

When Pat Murphy commented during spring training about Brice Turang taking a quantum leap forward this season, he drew some derision from myself and many other Brewers fans. In the first four games, however, Turang has looked like a totally different player--one much more akin to the talent scouts have touted since he was drafted in 2018. Elite defense and a strong hit tool with great baserunning instincts add up to an effective everyday big-league player, but how is Turang performing better this season?

The High Fastball
In 2023, one of Turang’s biggest issues came in how he dealt with the four-seam fastball at the top of the zone. He swung and missed 18.2% of the time, while fouling off these pitches a further 53.9% of the time, meaning fewer than 28% of his swings at upper-third fastballs were put into play. Of these, with just an 86.6-mph average exit velocity, he couldn’t do anything with the ball, resulting in a lot of cheap outs and a weighted On Base Average (wOBA) of just .275. A lot of this was a result of an uppercut swing, whereby he swung underneath the ball with regularity.

This season, as a result of some of the changes to his hand position, the size of his bat knob, and (I’m sure) other tweaks, the bat path is a lot flatter through the zone, allowing him to get on top of those high four-seamers. As a result, early on, you can see how this has reduced his swing and miss in the upper third:

Pitchers' go-to sequence for Turang last year seemed to be fastballs up to get ahead, and then put him away when he chased and missed below the zone. It happened over and over again, so being able to avoid those misses and fouls and force the pitchers above the zone to get these results will help him get into more favorable counts; he should even walk more. A higher on-base percentage brings about chances to use his speed to the devastating effect we’ve seen so far, as you can see below on a pitch that he wouldn’t have gotten close to last season:

The Problems Outside The Zone (and a word of caution)
Last season, breaking pitches below the strike zone were almost a guaranteed out against Turang. He whiffed on 70% of his swings on such offerings. He has only faced 11 such pitches so far this season, chasing five and missing on one of them. This is an incredibly small sample size, and while it does suggest he can maybe be more effective in two-strike counts in these scenarios, there isn’t enough evidence yet to know for sure. 

The good news is that Turang didn’t chase all that much in this area last year, proving much more susceptible to pitches inside or above the strike zone. This is a trend that seems to be continuing this season, so again, that chase rate and the corresponding contact issues it will bring are a source of potential regression. If he can maintain the flatter bat path, though, it should allow him to stay in the at-bat a whole lot better and shouldn’t be the end of the world for him. 

So Can He Be A League-Average Hitter?
The BABIP of .700 isn’t sustainable, and he’s not looking likely to hit for more extra bases, either. That being said, he had an 87.5% stolen base rate last year, so he doesn’t need that power to be a solid offensive contributor for the Brewers. He’s also improved in the following areas (again SSS alert):

• 89.4 mph average exit velocity on non-bunts (+3.6 mph)
• Sweet spot rate 40% (+9.9%)
• Forward velocity 80.1 mph (+4.9 mph)
• Swing and Miss Rate 11.8% (- 9.8%)
• Pitches Per Plate Appearance 4.20 (+ 0.21)

These are all signs of a hitter providing better at-bats, with a better idea of which pitches he can square up and which ones he can’t, along with a better ability to find the outfield grass. Turang is unlikely to be a 110 wRC+ hitter, but there is a definite chance he can find that 95-100 wRC+ mark with his baserunning capabilities added thereto. Alongside the incredible defense, you’re looking at a solid 3+ WAR player if he can maintain this standard.

What do you think of Turang's start to the season? Can you see meaningful changes, or is this just another early-season smokescreen? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!