Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic
  • Counsell's Confusing Late-Game Decisions Sink the Brewers


    Tim Muma

    The whole "Craigtember" phenomenon is supposed to compliment how Milwaukee Brewers manager Craig Counsell deftly uses his personnel in September, the season's most important month. But he's had a rough go in 2023, and Counsell's poor decisions in Wednesday's loss were among the worst.

    Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

    Brewers Video

    Every game is vital at this point in the season, with the Brewers leading the Chicago Cubs by just 2.5 games entering play Wednesday. It's especially essential to win a series against clearly inferior opponents and not throw away games with bad decision-making. With Milwaukee leading the Pittsburgh Pirates 3-1 in the sixth inning of the rubber match, the game was set up for a Counsell masterclass. Instead, he made multiple confusing decisions that directly led to the Brewers' fifth loss in their last eight contests.

    Freddy Peralta pitched well into the sixth inning, continuing his string of excellent starts. But with the Brewers clinging to a two-run edge, he allowed a one-out single before pitching too carefully to Ke'Bryan Hayes, resulting in a walk. Though Peralta was at just 89 pitches, on a hot day after two straight runners reached base, a day off on Thursday, and a pair of lefties due up representing the go-ahead run, a call to southpaw Hoby Milner seemed obvious. One problem: Milner wasn't warming up, and Counsell stuck with Peralta to face power-hitting left-hander Jack Suwinski. After falling behind 2-1 in the count, Peralta left a changeup up in the zone, and Suwinski hammered a double to right-center.

    Now leading 3-2, Counsell did go to the bullpen, but it was right-hander Trevor Megill to face another left-handed hitter. Megill would give up an RBI single to center to tie the game up as the teams headed to the seventh frame. Would the Pirates have countered with right-handed hitters if Milner came in? It's likely since that scenario played out later. However, the 2018-2019 version of Counsell would have had Milner ready and been more aggressive with his bullpen usage, forcing the other manager's hand. Instead, the win probability flipped quickly.

    Screenshot_20230906_151137_Chrome.jpg

    After the Brewers failed to score in the top of the seventh, Counsell's next questionable move reared its ugly head. For some reason, he has been almost automatic in selecting Elvis Peguero to handle the seventh inning when tied or in the lead. The problem is that Peguero pitched the night before, and he's been highly ineffective pitching back-to-back days this season.

    • Zero days rest: 5.68 ERA, .768 OPS against
    • One day rest: 1.02 ERA, .311 OPS against

    Not surprising to most, Peguero would give up a single and a triple as the Pirates took a 4-3 lead. Then Milner would allow a base hit for Pittsburgh's fifth run of the game, also charged to Peguero's line. It's incredibly confusing that Counsell would make this move again, which has blown up on him other times this season. 

    Why not go to Abner Uribe, who hadn't pitched in a few days? The young fireballer has proven he can handle high leverage just fine. Well, Counsell saved Uribe for the eighth inning when he promptly struck out the side. Too bad the Brewers were still trailing by a run at that point instead of being tied. There are mind-boggling choices with the pitching recently, but particularly today.

    Before Uribe came into the game, the Brewers had their chance in the top of the eighth to tie the game at five apiece. With runners at first and third, down by a run, Brice Turang was due to face a right-handed hurler with only one out. Instead, Counsell chose to go with Rowdy Tellez as the pinch-hitter. It's difficult to understand the thinking.

    • First, it did not change any platoon advantage, as Tellez and Turang are both lefties.
    • Second, the Brewers didn't need a home run where Tellez would give them a better chance to strike.
    • Third, the worst-case scenario is to ground into a double play, which is less likely with Turang's speed versus Tellez's lack thereof.

    Let's examine that last point. Tellez has a career 39.4 percent ground ball percentage. Turang, albeit in a much smaller sample size, owns a 39.7 percent grounder rate. There is no real advantage to using Tellez by that standard. So again, who is less likely to get doubled up? The much faster Turang. Additionally, the Brewers could have toyed with Turang dropping a bunt down to bring home the run from third. That's not an option with Tellez. Instead, Tellez bounced into a tailor-made double play to kill the rally.

    The Brewers would ultimately come up short, losing the game 5-4 and their first series to the Pirates this season. This game is tough to swallow, with the Cubs on the verge of sweeping the San Francisco Giants and cutting Milwaukee's NL Central lead to just 1.5 games. Now is not the time for the Brewers to lose the one significant advantage they have over the Cubs - the manager.

    Counsell has been one of the best managers in baseball since taking over full-time in 2016. His terrific September record over the years has earned him some benefit of the doubt. Unfortunately, many have fairly questioned several decisions in recent weeks (e.g., keeping Wade Miley in for the seventh inning against the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday when he lost the lead). The laser-focused, fine-tuned September calls from the past have yet to be there. Wednesday's choices were among the worst. Maybe, like players, a manager can find himself in a slump, too. Let's hope Counsell snaps out of it quickly, for the Brewers' (and their fans) sake.

    Think you could write a story like this? Brewer Fanatic wants you to develop your voice, find an audience, and we'll pay you to do it. Just fill out this form.

    MORE FROM BREWER FANATIC
    — Latest Brewers coverage from our writers
    — Recent Brewers discussion in our forums
    — Follow Brewer Fanatic via Twitter, Facebook or email

     Share


    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments

    Featured Comments

    Craigtember last really occurred in 2019.

    since then they haven’t really starred in September.

    ‘And without the real talent, it’s hard to manage to wins. Somehow CC has done well with less than stellar talent.

    Hopeful the prospects that come up can change that. Now who will manage next season if CC bolts.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Craig Councel overuses some relievers like Pegero and Chafen and pampers Devin Williams who hasn't pitched in 4 days against the Philly's.  Councel pitched Chafen like crazy until his ERA doubled right before this series.  It is almost like he wants to ruin pitchers careers or he is just VERY terrible at making reliver choices.  Just Terrible.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    11 minutes ago, biedergb said:

    Craigtember last really occurred in 2019.

    since then they haven’t really starred in September.

    ‘And without the real talent, it’s hard to manage to wins. Somehow CC has done well with less than stellar talent.

    Hopeful the prospects that come up can change that. Now who will manage next season if CC bolts.

    Agreed, Counsell doesn’t have a hitter on his roster who other team’s fear, and he’s been saddled with mostly struggling rookies and mediocre or worse hitters, yet he’s had his squad in first place most of the year. 
     

    Don’t lose the forest amongst the trees, Counsell has done an A+ job this year. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    This doesn't get talked about much, but we traded two relievers who would really look good in our bullpen right now for Rowdy Tellez who has somehow made a long career out of being very mediocre. 

    But yeah, poor move by Craig going with him in the 9th, and on Uribe, it just doesn't feel like Craig trusts him. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    11 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

    Agreed, Counsell doesn’t have a hitter on his roster who other team’s fear, and he’s been saddled with mostly struggling rookies and mediocre or worse hitters, yet he’s had his squad in first place most of the year. 
     

    Don’t lose the forest amongst the trees, Counsell has done an A+ job this year. 

    Not criticizing CC as much as stating that the September magic was really 2017 when there was no expectations and the young team did well, 2018 with a great team roster that got hot at the right time, and 2019 when Yelich willed the team and the rest of them went on a roll after he got hurt.

    That was also with more expanded rosters when mixing and matching was easier to do.

    Counsell has done well, but I don’t think there is a September run, and it has been several years since there was one. Sadly this roster is all pitching and many pitchers haven’t met or exceeded expectations save a hot month or two (outside of Devin, and Wiley has been as expected or better since he has logged more IP than expected).

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    20 minutes ago, Brian said:

    Craig Councel overuses some relievers like Pegero and Chafen and pampers Devin Williams who hasn't pitched in 4 days against the Philly's.  Councel pitched Chafen like crazy until his ERA doubled right before this series.  It is almost like he wants to ruin pitchers careers or he is just VERY terrible at making reliver choices.  Just Terrible.

    Welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    9 hours ago, Team Canada said:

    Welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

    Yogi Berra on his hitting approach: "I can't think and hit at the same time."

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    55 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

    This doesn't get talked about much, but we traded two relievers who would really look good in our bullpen right now for Rowdy Tellez who has somehow made a long career out of being very mediocre. 

    But yeah, poor move by Craig going with him in the 9th, and on Uribe, it just doesn't feel like Craig trusts him. 

    Have to assume that absolute meltdown from Uribe a few days ago will not be easily forgotten.     

    This is a perfect example of hindsight, the guy he picked didn't work out (he also didn't full on meltdown either).  If Uribe had been brought in with same results (or even worse after see the possible volatility he has) then the same folks can say "why wouldn't he use the guy who's been good all year instead of the rookie who just had a complete breakdown a few days ago".

    I said in the gamethread I probably would've valued avoiding the DP and that its still R/L and let Turang hit. But as noted by an article on here just a day or two back Tellez has been doing well, he just had a big PH rocket not long ago and when it comes down to it they probably just feel is a better hitter than Turang.  Going with the guy you feel is the better with the game on the line is not braindead, these are things that could go either way. It just didn't work today and in baseball hitters fail at least 60% of the time. 

    ETA:  But, every good outing by Uribe puts that further in the background to hopefully provide trust and more flexibility as I'm not a fan of the rigid 7, 8, 9 inning guy thing either.  IMO that's a nitpick of mine on craig the last few years, he was one of the most creative on that stuff a few years back and has moved to the more traditional model.  However, we also don't know how much of that was pushed on him by Hader and his agent but I'd like to see the flex come back.  But its also not as easy without the expanded rosters and without freaks like Woody, Burnes, Hader in his pen.     Oh, also small point out that Chafin has strung together a few good ones in a row (unless I missed a bad one) so that could be another option for flex after a few more to gain trust.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Turang's huge hot month of August was a wRC+ of 81. Tellez overall terrible season has a wRC+ of 81 but he has been hitting better lately and is just a better hitter.  

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Tim Muma
  • Brewer Fanatic Contributor
  • Posted

    10 hours ago, tmwiese55 said:

    Have to assume that absolute meltdown from Uribe a few days ago will not be easily forgotten.     

    This is a perfect example of hindsight, the guy he picked didn't work out (he also didn't full on meltdown either).  If Uribe had been brought in with same results (or even worse after see the possible volatility he has) then the same folks can say "why wouldn't he use the guy who's been good all year instead of the rookie who just had a complete breakdown a few days ago".

    I said in the gamethread I probably would've valued avoiding the DP and that its still R/L and let Turang hit. But as noted by an article on here just a day or two back Tellez has been doing well, he just had a big PH rocket not long ago and when it comes down to it they probably just feel is a better hitter than Turang.  Going with the guy you feel is the better with the game on the line is not braindead, these are things that could go either way. It just didn't work today and in baseball hitters fail at least 60% of the time. 

    ETA:  But, every good outing by Uribe puts that further in the background to hopefully provide trust and more flexibility as I'm not a fan of the rigid 7, 8, 9 inning guy thing either.  IMO that's a nitpick of mine on craig the last few years, he was one of the most creative on that stuff a few years back and has moved to the more traditional model.  However, we also don't know how much of that was pushed on him by Hader and his agent but I'd like to see the flex come back.  But its also not as easy without the expanded rosters and without freaks like Woody, Burnes, Hader in his pen.     Oh, also small point out that Chafin has strung together a few good ones in a row (unless I missed a bad one) so that could be another option for flex after a few more to gain trust.

     

    I understand in a vacuum why you'd have Tellez pinch hit for Turang, or in many other scenarios: 1) If there were 2 outs, 2) If you need an extra-base hit, 3) If you are trailing by more than 1 run, 4) If there was no double play on the table.  But in THIS specific situation, the tying run can score from 3rd in many ways and worst case is a double play, which is increased by Tellez batting over Turang. 

    As for Peguero over Uribe in the 7th in a tie game. Uribe was at 20.1 IP before yesterday and now has a 1.69 ERA and .507 opponents' OPS. In Peguero's previous 20 IP (BEFORE yesterday), he had a 4.05 ERA and .740 opponents' OPS. So taking their most recent 20-ish outings, Uribe has outperformed him. And as noted in the article, Peguero has been bad all year when pitching back-to-back days.

    I get what you're saying about the blowup game from Uribe that might have worried Counsell...but I would say, again, that is different than how he normally operates. But perhaps it is just a concern of his about Uribe.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Turang is the king of the dribbler and swinging bunt with a man on third. However, can see trying to win the game with Tellez instead of going for the tie. Not going to be too hard on Counsell for a bad result there.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    1 hour ago, Tim Muma said:

     

    I understand in a vacuum why you'd have Tellez pinch hit for Turang, or in many other scenarios: 1) If there were 2 outs, 2) If you need an extra-base hit, 3) If you are trailing by more than 1 run, 4) If there was no double play on the table.  But in THIS specific situation, the tying run can score from 3rd in many ways and worst case is a double play, which is increased by Tellez batting over Turang. 

    As for Peguero over Uribe in the 7th in a tie game. Uribe was at 20.1 IP before yesterday and now has a 1.69 ERA and .507 opponents' OPS. In Peguero's previous 20 IP (BEFORE yesterday), he had a 4.05 ERA and .740 opponents' OPS. So taking their most recent 20-ish outings, Uribe has outperformed him. And as noted in the article, Peguero has been bad all year when pitching back-to-back days.

    I get what you're saying about the blowup game from Uribe that might have worried Counsell...but I would say, again, that is different than how he normally operates. But perhaps it is just a concern of his about Uribe.

    Yup.  Going any of these routes has logic and reason to it.  This is baseball, almost nothing is completely black/white.  Some day what you decide to value or you have to guess with your gut because there is no clear cut 100% choice and you get it wrong. It's baseball, you can't get them all right.   Yesterday, he likely got a couple wrong.  And I'm sure he, assistants, the team are wringing their hands about it even more than we are.   They're not stupid, they know all this stuff too and as evidence by their overall results they're pretty good at it. 

    Yea in general I'd probably get over the Uribe meltdown and try to use him in these spots too. The more reps he get you find out plus get him comfortable for playoffs where he could be a huge weapon.  But, probably be ready to yank quick if the command looks anything like that other game in the first batter or two.   But its certainly not braindead after seeing that to be a bit hesitant when there's no wiggle room like yesterday 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    7 hours ago, Tim Muma said:

     

    I understand in a vacuum why you'd have Tellez pinch hit for Turang, or in many other scenarios: 1) If there were 2 outs, 2) If you need an extra-base hit, 3) If you are trailing by more than 1 run, 4) If there was no double play on the table.  But in THIS specific situation, the tying run can score from 3rd in many ways and worst case is a double play, which is increased by Tellez batting over Turang. 

    As for Peguero over Uribe in the 7th in a tie game. Uribe was at 20.1 IP before yesterday and now has a 1.69 ERA and .507 opponents' OPS. In Peguero's previous 20 IP (BEFORE yesterday), he had a 4.05 ERA and .740 opponents' OPS. So taking their most recent 20-ish outings, Uribe has outperformed him. And as noted in the article, Peguero has been bad all year when pitching back-to-back days.

    I get what you're saying about the blowup game from Uribe that might have worried Counsell...but I would say, again, that is different than how he normally operates. But perhaps it is just a concern of his about Uribe.

    Couldn’t have said it better.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites



    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...