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    How Brewers Can Respond After Dodgers Trade for Tarik Skubal

    As usual, the Dodgers were willing to pay a higher price for a superstar than the Brewers were. Perhaps to fans, the chance of trading for Tarik Skubal felt more real than in the past, but the Brewers themselves were planning their pivot all along.

    Matthew Trueblood
    Image courtesy of USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

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    Beating the Dodgers isn't necessarily the Brewers' job. It's taken for granted, in many circles, that the Brewers will eventually have to go through Los Angeles in October to reach the World Series for the first time since 1982, but in reality, someone else will get a crack at that team first. For fans, players and the front office, it would be unhealthy, unproductive and inefficient to spend time obsessing over the Dodgers. The Brewers have their own work to do, and it shouldn't be a response to the Dodgers'.

    That's much easier to say than it is to live out, though, on the morning after Tarik Skubal landed with the sport's most successful dynasty since the turn of the 21st century. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman pushed his chips to the center of the table to haul in Skubal from the forgettable Tigers, as he attempts to secure Los Angeles's third straight World Series title. The Brewers had been in on Skubal, a source familiar with the discussions said, but they always knew the Dodgers were the favorites. As such, Brewers president of baseball ops Matt Arnold has been planning his pivot for some time.

    Though he's an impending free agent, Skubal was priced like a controllable one; that's one reason why the Brewers were never likely to land him. The package the Tigers received in exchange for Skubal is far richer than what any other pitcher headed for the market this fall will command, so the Brewers could choose to focus on one of those hurlers to keep acquisition costs down. They've talked to the Tigers about Casey Mize, the former No. 1 overall pick and another impending free agent, though the fit between what Mize does and what the Brewers like is imperfect.

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    Casey Mize, Tigers

    RHP Tigers Age: 29 FA: Nov 2026 Sal: $6.15m
    The first overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft came into pro ball throwing strikes, and hasn’t stopped. However, injuries and the mysteries of pitching development have held him back in all bids to be the frontline starter the Tigers hoped they were getting with that selection. This year, he’s figured out the latter. He’s now missing bats like a high-end starter, with a pitch mix that has become exceptionally varied. Injuries haven’t stopped nagging and nipping at him, but he’s showing the feel and command that were supposed to make him an elite starter. That it’s happening amid a season in which the Tigers just can’t get untracked is deeply unfortunate, but that it’s happening at all gives the team a chance to cash him in for some real long-term value, rather than watching him leave for modest draft-pick compensation this winter.

    Arnold and Cardinals president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom have known each other for 20 years, which provides the kind of foundation required to pull off intradivisional trades in July. St. Louis is likely to deal Dustin May, and the Brewers have checked in there, too. May suits the Crew's pitching predilections neatly, too: good velocity, good extension, three fastballs, and so on.

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    Dustin May, Cardinals

    RHP Cardinals Age: 28 FA: Nov 2026* Sal: $12.5m
    It’s great to see May come through a multi-year run of miserable injury luck to pitch the way many long believed he could. Not has his good season with the Cards been solely about being available. He’s throwing more strikes, thanks in part to a rejiggered approach that favors four-seamers, cutters and changeups at the expense of sinkers and sweepers. He still has an extremely lively arm, and his stuff is playing better this season, thanks to his newfound ability to fill up the zone. As an impending free agent on a team that still views itself as building for a future brighter than its present, though, he’s a strong candidate to be dealt. Unless the Cardinals can strike a deal with him this month to convert his mutual option for 2027 into a multi-year commitment, he’ll be on the market, and should slot nicely into the back half of a playoff-caliber rotation.

    Milwaukee has also talked to the Giants about both Tyler Mahle and Robbie Ray. Of the two, Ray comes with the higher price tag, but is also pitching better this season. The Brewers have talked internally about starters they could acquire to work in the back half of the rotation down the stretch, before moving to the bullpen in October. Ray would be a good candidate for that, and has done a version of it before.

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    Robbie Ray, Giants

    LHP Giants Age: 34 FA: Nov 2026 Sal: $25m
    If you’re feeling uncharitable, you’ll note that Ray still walks plenty of batters but isn’t striking out as many this year. You might wonder if his solid surface-level numbers are mostly a matter of playing his home games at Oracle Park in San Francisco. However, reintroducing his sinker has helped him get off the barrel more consistently this year, so much of the extra contact hitters are making is early in counts and unproductive. He still has multiple secondary offerings with good swing-and-miss numbers; he blends experience and stuff almost as well as Sonny Gray and Freddy Peralta. He no longer has frontline potential, but he can be a mid-rotation option even for teams planning deep forays into the postseason. The Giants are not such a team, and would love to get rid of his hefty salary for the final two months.

    The final dual option for Milwaukee on the rental starter front could be the Mets, who have both Freddy Peralta and Clay Holmes on the market. Holmes is still rehabbing from a broken leg, but his profile is extremely similar to that of Quinn Priester. Needless to say, the Brewers are intrigued by that. A reunion with Peralta would be a joyous occasion for the team, but it might also be fraught; there's worry within the organization about the emotional toll it might take on all parties if Peralta's rough season continues after a would-be triumphant return.

    As always, though, the team remains open-minded and interested in making bigger moves, if the right opportunity is there. Milwaukee has talked to the Rockies about starter Ryan Feltner, who has two more years of team control after 2026 and is having a strong season. Feltner, 29, has an extremely strange arsenal, with relative cut on his four-seam fastball and his changeup and an erratic but dastardly sinker-slider combination. He won't be cheap, but Feltner is one medium-term acquisition who could be a level-booster for the Milwaukee rotation.

    Beyond those names, what Arnold might come up with is anyone's guess. The Brewers have not been frontrunners for Reid Detmers of the Angels, but José Soriano is "up their alley" and the team has checked in with interim Angels GM John Mozeliak about a number of players, a source said. Adding a starter remains an important box on the to-do checklist, but the team is also focused on deepending their stable to high-leverage relievers. That could lead them back to the Mets and Luke Weaver; it could also mean pursuing Orioles righty Tyler Wells.

    Skubal was never in the cards for Milwaukee. It was a nice idea, given their competitive position and how great he is, but the value Detroit demanded in return—and eventually got, from a team closer to the end of its championship window than the Brewers are—was more than he would have been worth to the Crew. Arnold has less than 36 hours to respond, but he's not in a direct arms race with Friedman. He just needs to help a great team get to October with its legs underneath it.

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    3 hours ago, ImissDougMelvin said:

    This development has been so bizarre to me...I mean he hit 29 HR's and knocked in over 100 last year. To watch him this year is just shocking. Like how does a guy drop that fast that quickly after having a season like he did last year? What the hell changed that quickly over the offseason that he's just a shell of what he was even a year ago. It's truly bizarre. 

    Tom Verducci followed up his terrific profile of Misiorowski for Sports Illustrated with a story that asserts that this is worst time in MLB history to be a thirtysomething hitter. The rise in velocity and spin on pitches is humbling a lot of hitters in their 30s. It's dragging down Yelich, but it could be a silver lining for the Brewers. The Brewers are working with an age curve of 28, according to Mark A., and they continue to shed players approaching free agency. Staying young will allow them to compete with the big-market teams that indulge in free agents. 

    • Like 1
    1 minute ago, Snoebird said:

    Tom Verducci followed up his terrific profile of Misiorowski for Sports Illustrated with a story that asserts that this is worst time in MLB history to be a thirtysomething hitter. The rise in velocity and spin on pitches is humbling a lot of hitters in their 30s. It's dragging down Yelich, but it could be a silver lining for the Brewers. The Brewers are working with an age curve of 28, according to Mark A., and they continue to shed players approaching free agency. Staying young will allow them to compete with the big-market teams that indulge in free agents. 

    Yeah but is that drastically different from last year when he hit 29 HR's? I can't imagine it's that different

    1 hour ago, ImissDougMelvin said:

    Yeah but is that drastically different from last year when he hit 29 HR's? I can't imagine it's that different

    Baseball, heck sports history, is littered with hundreds if not thousands of guys who have fallen off a cliff hard somewhere in their thirties.  I'm not ready to completely throw the towel in on Yelich as guys have down seasons but is it really that hard to believe?  Many of the posters here years ago were lamenting the likelihood that his contract would age poorly. 

    Would it really be that surprising if that turned out to be the case?

    • Like 1
    4 hours ago, Opening Day said:

    The Brewers dont even play in the same league at the Dodgers.  They have 2 guys making the Brewers entire payroll.  While I have for years enjoyed the pursuit of the playoffs and hoping to "make noise", its becoming frustrating knowing that when they reach a new level, other teams just purchase another level, and its time to trade one of our guy before FA.  If they lose to the Dodgers again, especially if Skubal and Ohtani are the stars of the series, I probably wont be able to have the same excitement for the next season.  Not that anyone cares how much I care about baseball, but I just wanted to vent.

    Nah, you aren’t alone. Woke up this morning, saw the news, and canceled brewers.tv. I’ll watch if they are on somewhere free and follow along. Not paying money to anything MLB related till they fix the system.

    Assuming the Brewers don’t win it all, praying the Dodgers do. Worst thing would be some early exit and then owners just decide it’s not that big of a deal.

    2 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

    Nah, you aren’t alone. Woke up this morning, saw the news, and canceled brewers.tv. I’ll watch if they are on somewhere free and follow along. Not paying money to anything MLB related till they fix the system.

    Assuming the Brewers don’t win it all, praying the Dodgers do. Worst thing would be some early exit and then owners just decide it’s not that big of a deal.

    THAT was what did it? Not the Dodgers signing Ohtani, Tucker, so on and so forth? Not the lack of a salary cap or floor? Not the stupid blackout restrictions that make zero sense whatsoever? I mean, the answer to the question of this post is that the response needs to be on the field. Win. Take down the Dodgers. It is absolutely possible. 

    If Arnold can get something of value for a player he thinks has no future in Milwaukee, great, but trading anything that the organization values is basically pointless. I don't know there's any offense in MLB that, come playoff time, beats the Dodgers starters 4/7 games. To think this team's offense would is fantasy. Trading anything of value for a 5th tier SP isn't going to change a thing.  And frankly, even if the impossible happened and they worked a deal for someone like Buxton, I don't think that's enough to beat the Dodgers. 

    I hate the "Best Farm System" championship as much as anyone, but there's legit no way this team as constructed beats the Dodgers in the playoffs, so keep the powder dry for another day.

    Problem is unless significant changes (that I don't think are very likely) happen, I'm not sure that "another day" ever comes. Cheapskate owners hate a floor as much, or more than, players hate a ceiling, and without a floor, the cap is pointless. 

    5 hours ago, ImissDougMelvin said:

    Yeah but is that drastically different from last year when he hit 29 HR's? I can't imagine it's that different

    Ryan Braun's cohort disappeared when 97 mph became the speed of an effective fastball. Miz and the Brewers could help speed some of the current greats into retirement. As for Yelich, he could transition into a player/coach role. Or Mark A. eventually could offer him a personal services contract if he retired as a player. I think Yelich is still trying to figure out what he can and can't do as a hitter.

    2 hours ago, craigharmann said:

    THAT was what did it? Not the Dodgers signing Ohtani, Tucker, so on and so forth? Not the lack of a salary cap or floor? Not the stupid blackout restrictions that make zero sense whatsoever? I mean, the answer to the question of this post is that the response needs to be on the field. Win. Take down the Dodgers. It is absolutely possible. 

    No, it is all of that collectively. It is called the last straw, not the only straw. But it is what it is. Hopefully the owners are willing to save the sport in the offseason. Will be interesting to see how many actually care to save competitiveness in the sport.

     

    14 hours ago, da swedish german said:

    i'm ready to cheer on scumbag behavior.  everyone stomp on every dodgers pitchers ankle when covering first base

    I can't figure out how to make this blue. or at least "light" blue

    Make it Dodger blue, then.

    9 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

    No, it is all of that collectively. It is called the last straw, not the only straw. But it is what it is. Hopefully the owners are willing to save the sport in the offseason. Will be interesting to see how many actually care to save competitiveness in the sport.

     

    Fair point. I want to be optimistic, but I think in the end, the almighty dollar and the bottom line wins out. 

    10 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

    No, it is all of that collectively. It is called the last straw, not the only straw. But it is what it is. Hopefully the owners are willing to save the sport in the offseason. Will be interesting to see how many actually care to save competitiveness in the sport.

     

    What you should have noticed is a proliferation of sports on the legacy TV networks. The networks lost a lot of their original programming to the streaming services, so the networks and their advertisers pounced on sports -- led by football -- to fill air space. Baseball's return to summer TV prominence requires competitive races and fresh faces, so Rob Manfred is taking on that challenge by working toward teams sharing their TV revenue evenly. The trigger year is 2028, when current TV contracts are due to expire. If you can wait that long before throwing in the towel, imagine what the Brewers could look like with Chourio hitting his prime, Pena joining Made on the infield and the homegrown sluggers weighing in. Freddie Freeman should be past his prime by then.

    homer
  • Brewer Fanatic Contributor
  • Posted

    The thing is, there are probably ten teams that could be doing what the Dodgers are doing, but they choose not to. That would spread out the talent quite a bit. And even then, you still have to know what you are doing, as the Mets, Blue Jays, Tigers, and, to a lesser extent, Phillies are proving. 

    image.png

    34 minutes ago, homer said:

    The thing is, there are probably ten teams that could be doing what the Dodgers are doing, but they choose not to. That would spread out the talent quite a bit. And even then, you still have to know what you are doing, as the Mets, Blue Jays, Tigers, and, to a lesser extent, Phillies are proving. 

    image.png

    The Brewers could be doing what the Dodgers do as well. I don’t mean carrying a $300M payroll. But look at Zyhir Hope who they just traded away for Skubal. 
     

    The Dodgers were looking to clear 40 man roster spots and traded Michael Busch to Chicago for Hope. The Dodgers obviously had identified him as a player they could coach up. Their farm system is littered with players acquired from other organizations who they have coached up. 
     

    The Dodgers are not afraid to take a risk, be it guaranteeing hundreds of millions of dollars to a player in his 30s confident they won’t be under water on the contract, or trading away prospects for a premium rental knowing they can replenish the farm system easily. 
     

    The Brewers are handicapped by being in MLB’s worst market, but they also are extremely risk averse. Which is why they’ll probably wind up with the same club tonight as they had this morning 

    homer
  • Brewer Fanatic Contributor
  • Posted

    2 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

    The Brewers could be doing what the Dodgers do as well. I don’t mean carrying a $300M payroll. But look at Zyhir Hope who they just traded away for Skubal. 
     

    The Dodgers were looking to clear 40 man roster spots and traded Michael Busch to Chicago for Hope. The Dodgers obviously had identified him as a player they could coach up. Their farm system is littered with players acquired from other organizations who they have coached up. 
     

    The Dodgers are not afraid to take a risk, be it guaranteeing hundreds of millions of dollars to a player in his 30s confident they won’t be under water on the contract, or trading away prospects for a premium rental knowing they can replenish the farm system easily. 
     

    The Brewers are handicapped by being in MLB’s worst market, but they also are extremely risk averse. Which is why they’ll probably wind up with the same club tonight as they had this morning 

    I know. I am not comparing the Brewers to the Dodgers. I am comparing all the big market teams that are not willing to consistently spend money. That would probably create a higher ceiling for the elite players but they would not all concentrate on one team. And you are correct that the Brewers very easily could have matched the Dodgers offer.  I am not saying they SHOULD have matched or beaten it. For all we know, the Brewers offered up better players but the Tigers just liked the Dodgers players better.

    7 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

    The Brewers are handicapped by being in MLB’s worst market, but they also are extremely risk averse. Which is why they’ll probably wind up with the same club tonight as they had this morning 

    With Skubal and Soriano gone, I kind of hope we don’t make any trades. There aren’t really any upgrades out there, unless we go huge for someone with years of control remaining. 

    1 minute ago, JCREW said:

    With Skubal and Soriano gone, I kind of hope we don’t make any trades. There aren’t really any upgrades out there, unless we go huge for someone with years of control remaining. 

    Casey Mize would be a solid addition to the rotation, but is not without risk. I am afraid of what the return would be for Detmers.

    56 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

    The Brewers could be doing what the Dodgers do as well. I don’t mean carrying a $300M payroll. But look at Zyhir Hope who they just traded away for Skubal. 
     

    The Dodgers were looking to clear 40 man roster spots and traded Michael Busch to Chicago for Hope. The Dodgers obviously had identified him as a player they could coach up. Their farm system is littered with players acquired from other organizations who they have coached up. 
     

    The Dodgers are not afraid to take a risk, be it guaranteeing hundreds of millions of dollars to a player in his 30s confident they won’t be under water on the contract, or trading away prospects for a premium rental knowing they can replenish the farm system easily. 
     

    The Brewers are handicapped by being in MLB’s worst market, but they also are extremely risk averse. Which is why they’ll probably wind up with the same club tonight as they had this morning 

    The difference isn't risk aversion. It's what risk looks like in each organization is different. The Dodgers can lose every prospect and still not have to worry about how they'll field a winning team down the road. They don't have to worry about maintaining fan interest by having a homegrown star come up from their minors. They don't have to push prospects through the system because they're needed in the majors. They can afford to string out a prospect's timeline so they control them as long as possible. They don't have to add a player who's still a year or two away from needing to be placed on the 40 man because he's needed in the majors. They can keep them in the minors until they run out of options. All of those things keeps their farm strong but has less to do with being better than it is being rich enough to do fill their roster with high priced free agents. Their prospects are not as important to the team's future as they are to the Brewers. Teams that can do that see the value in their prospects as what they can help the team get to win now. If the Brewers did that the cost to future teams would be significantly higher than it is for the Dodgers.

    • Like 3
    1 hour ago, homer said:

    I know. I am not comparing the Brewers to the Dodgers. I am comparing all the big market teams that are not willing to consistently spend money. That would probably create a higher ceiling for the elite players but they would not all concentrate on one team. And you are correct that the Brewers very easily could have matched the Dodgers offer.  I am not saying they SHOULD have matched or beaten it. For all we know, the Brewers offered up better players but the Tigers just liked the Dodgers players better.

    The Dodgers have the best of both worlds because of Andrew Friedman running the show. Friedman is the inventor of the Tampa Bay Model that the Brewers, Rays, Dodgers and now Marlins adhere to -- and he is Matt Arnold's mentor. So, with L.A., you get an organization that is as disciplined as the Brewers in scouting, drafting and development, plus the layer of money that allows for the acquisition of thirtysomething free-agent stars. 




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