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  • The Brewers Should Target These 3 Right-Handed Relievers at the MLB Trade Deadline


    Matthew Trueblood

    Leading up to the MLB trade deadline next week, the buzz around the Brewers continues to center (rightfully) on hitters who can upgrade their inconsistent offense. If they want their success to last into October, though, they also need more depth in the bullpen. There are several options out there for them.

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    That the Brewers need to go shopping in the relief pitcher market this month is certainly no indictment of Devin Williams, Joel Payamps, or Elvis Peguero. Even after Peguero gave up a game-losing home run Sunday, that trio has led a supernal bullpen this year, and the Brewers' 19-8 record in one-run games is the biggest reason why they lead the NL Central (however precariously) entering this week's momentous series against the Reds. 

    No one ever talks about a team's record in two-run games, but for what it's worth, the Brewers are 5-12 in them this year. That's as much on their offense as on their bullpen, but it illustrates the fact that their relief corps is not bulletproof. Nor will they look as good two months from now, if the team continues to need them as much as they have this month, unless the front office supplements the bullpen ahead of the deadline on August 1.

    Thus, we should take a quick look at some available relievers who would deepen that unit and lessen the burden on the guys whom Craig Counsell has come to trust the most this year.

    Carlos Hernandez, RHP, Royals

    Right off the bat, let's look past rental relievers and talk about what a more exciting acquisition could look like. After a conversion from starting to relieving, Hernandez has found two extra miles per hour and some added life on his fastball, plus some extra zip on his slider. He's used those two pitches and a modestly effective splitter to strike out nearly 30 percent of opposing batters this season, while walking a very tolerable 7 percent. He's a flamethrower already, and it's likely that the Brewers could tap into even more upon landing him. He also has four years of team control remaining beyond 2023.

    Because of that last fact, he'd be an unusually expensive trade piece, relative to the relievers who get swapped at most deadlines. He's similar to late-blooming reliever Scott Effross, whom the Cubs traded (with five years of club control left) to the Yankees last July for starter Hayden Wesneski. It was a steep price for New York, and Effross has now undergone Tommy John surgery, but the thought process at the time was that Effross might cement the team's status as favorites to charge through the American League playoffs. Wesneski had spent considerable time in the upper levels, but has shown his warts since getting his chance with the Cubs. The equivalent move for the Brewers would be to trade Robert Gasser for Hernandez, which sounds like a high price. However, Hernandez could find even greater utility for his stuff under the better tutelage of Brewers pitching coaches, and he would provide insurance against the regression or fatigue that might afflict Payamps, Peguero, or Williams late this season. He would also make it more possible to envision the long-term bullpen picture.

    David Robertson, RHP, Mets

    Apparently ageless, though not quite bionic, Robertson is having an even better season than he had last year, when he started the year with the Cubs and ended it as a linchpin of the Phillies' bullpen. He's eliminated the control problems that plagued him at times in 2022, and remains extremely effective with his unconventional mix of cutters and sharp curveballs. The Mets are stuck in the doldrums and are likely to move pieces just like Robertson, who's nearing 40 years of age and will be a free agent at year's end. He's a bit expensive monetarily, but that should only serve to keep the acquisition cost down. Failing that, the Mets might pay down his salary to facilitate the small-market Brewers taking him. Last year, he commanded a rising starting prospect in Double A. The equivalent in the Brewers farm would be someone like Carlos F. Rodriguez. 

    Jose Cisnero, RHP, Tigers

    A lower-cost alternative to either of the above pitchers could be Cisnero, who is 34 and will be a free agent at season's end. He's a rare creature, a reliever with five pitches, and the Brewers would immediately clean up his pitch mix. (Gone, for instance, would be most of the sinkers he throws to lefties, and he'd follow in the steps of Payamps by becoming a sinker-slider guy to righties and a four-seam/changeup guy against lefties. Like Bryse Wilson, though, he'd also be likely to stick with and even emphasize the cutter, which seems to come out of his hand very naturally.)

    Cisnero won't be one of the five or six most talked-about right-handed relievers this deadline, but he's an obvious candidate to go somewhere, and the Brewers seem like an ideal destination. Any of these three, though, would lighten the loads of the team's existing triumvirate, and make it easier for them to both sew up the NL Central and push through the playoffs toward the World Series. Which one appeals most is about what you value most in a reliever; how much you want to plan for the future in that volatile area of the roster; and what appetite you have for giving up prospects to improve this flawed roster's chance to make a deep October run.

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    Mejia & Megill are the only up/down relievers on the roster right now and Justin Wilson will be taking one of those spots once his rehab assignment is up in a couple days.

    Somebody(s) from the rotation will have to go back to the bullpen when Woodruff and Miley are back. 

    Sounds like Ashby is on track to return at some point in a relief role too.

    Would hope any relief addition is for a smaller price than Gasser or Rodriguez, especially after Reese Olson for Daniel Norris last deadline.

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    RP is probably the least pressing Brewers need at the moment. They have 6 very solid bullpen arms with Justin Wilson set to come off the IL shortly and Ashby potentially in the mix at some point in August as well. I’m absolutely not trading Robert Gasser or Carlos Rodriguez for RP as well lol.

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    1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

    RP is probably the least pressing Brewers need at the moment. They have 6 very solid bullpen arms with Justin Wilson set to come off the IL shortly and Ashby potentially in the mix at some point in August as well. I’m absolutely not trading Robert Gasser or Carlos Rodriguez for RP as well lol.

    I get the perspective, but urge this: Never, ever assume that today’s bullpen will be tomorrow’s. There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical that this group, as currently comprised, can hold up and sustain what they’ve done over the first half. Being proactive, rather than just reactive, is the difference-maker for teams in close races at this time of year. Plus, the goal here shouldn’t be merely to win the division, but to pose a legitimate threat to Atlanta and the Dodgers in October. That means improving their strengths *and* their weaknesses.

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    9 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

    I get the perspective, but urge this: Never, ever assume that today’s bullpen will be tomorrow’s. There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical that this group, as currently comprised, can hold up and sustain what they’ve done over the first half. Being proactive, rather than just reactive, is the difference-maker for teams in close races at this time of year. Plus, the goal here shouldn’t be merely to win the division, but to pose a legitimate threat to Atlanta and the Dodgers in October. That means improving their strengths *and* their weaknesses.

    You’re suggesting trading a top 100 SP prospect by Baseball America for a RP who has had mixed results in his MLB career and a good season this year. You’re comparing it to a trade where the Yankees got a RP with an extra year of service time and gave up a weaker prospect at the time. Then you suggest the Brewers should give up a 21 year old who has been one of the best SP in AA this season for a 2 month rental RP.

    These hypotheticals to me just show a significant misunderstanding of the Brewers roster and minor league system. 

    Burnes, Woodruff, Lauer, Houser, and Miley are all set to be FA in the next 18 months and the Brewers are relatively thin on SP prospects in the upper levels of the minors. Suggesting the Brewers trade their 2 closest to the MLB SP prospects for RP is just a huge red flag not understanding the entire picture of the Brewers system. 
     

    Meanwhile their top 6 bullpen arms are all Pre-Arb or Arb-1 this season meaning they are still affordable for at least another season. 

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    I'd never rule out picking up another reliever because that's what we do. But I'd rather we didn't due to the eventual additions Sveum & wiguy alluded to. 

    I mean, we could use a bat or two, but I'm not even trading Gasser or Rodriguez for a bat unless it's one with a lot of team control.

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    5 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

    I'd never rule out picking up another reliever because that's what we do. But I'd rather we didn't due to the eventual additions Sveum & wiguy alluded to. 

    I mean, we could use a bat or two, but I'm not even trading Gasser or Rodriguez for a bat unless it's one with a lot of team control.

    Why? Because the 2025 rotation looks like junk?  Well Gasser and Rodriguez likely don't make it that much better. Now I'm not saying just trade them, but chasing the 75th win in 2025 instead of the 87th now doesn't make much sense.

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    Because as was pointed out earlier there isn't much starting pitching in the upper levels of the system, and unless you want to include Misiorowski who just arrived in Biloxi these are your two best.

    It's just how I value starting pitching, especially for a franchise that isn't all that well-equipped to go out & buy it.

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    14 minutes ago, endaround said:

    Why? Because the 2025 rotation looks like junk?  Well Gasser and Rodriguez likely don't make it that much better. Now I'm not saying just trade them, but chasing the 75th win in 2025 instead of the 87th now doesn't make much sense.

    No, because we shouldn’t be trading two (2) future mid-rotation arms for bullpen help — ever. 

    This team needs help offensively, not in the bullpen.

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    6 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

    Because as was pointed out earlier there isn't much starting pitching in the upper levels of the system, and unless you want to include Misiorowski who just arrived in Biloxi these are your two best.

    It's just how I value starting pitching, especially for a franchise that isn't all that well-equipped to go out & buy it.

    Yupp. We aren’t Trueblood’s Cubs who can go out and spend $15+M a year on mid-tier FA SP. Brewers are not going to trade their 2 closest to the MLB rotation SP prospects for RP.

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    Just now, SF70 said:

    No, because we shouldn’t be trading two (2) future mid-rotation arms for bullpen help — ever. 

    This team needs help offensively, not in the bullpen.

    This makes me worry that I was very unclear. By no means should or would the Brewers need to trade both of those guys to acquire any of these trade candidates. Nor would or should they be trying to land more than one of the guys in this piece. I’m just laying out options. They’re alternatives to one another, not moves you’d stack on top of each other.

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    I would consider Abner Uribe sort of like a bullpen acquisition without having to give up anything to get him. Justin Wilson as well. I just don’t want to utilize any of our resources to acquire bullpen arms when our offense desperately needs an upgrade, other than Frelick.

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    1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

    Yupp. We aren’t Trueblood’s Cubs who can go out and spend $15+M a year on mid-tier FA SP. Brewers are not going to trade their 2 closest to the MLB rotation SP prospects for RP.

    Now wait a minute. Kyle Lohse. Matt Garza. The Brewers spend for mid-rotation starters almost exactly as often as the Cubs do. I doubt it’s something Arnold himself is eager to do, but it’s certainly in his options box, especially if and when either Burnes or Woodruff departs and the money they’re currently committing to those two via arbitration comes off the books.

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    2 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

    Now wait a minute. Kyle Lohse. Matt Garza. The Brewers spend for mid-rotation starters almost exactly as often as the Cubs do. I doubt it’s something Arnold himself is eager to do, but it’s certainly in his options box, especially if and when either Burnes or Woodruff departs and the money they’re currently committing to those two via arbitration comes off the books.

    None of those moves happened under the Brewers current FO model. What they did when Melvin was the GM is pretty much irrelevant. 

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    1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

    None of those moves happened under the Brewers current FO model. What they did when Melvin was the GM is pretty much irrelevant. 

    Different front office, but same owner. I’m just saying, it’s clear that the Brewers can and will (and I’ll argue that, at least eventually, they need to) spend money in free agency to compete consistently under Attanasio. 
     

    My broader point, which perhaps got lost before I even fully made it, is that one thing good front offices do is identify guys in their own system who might have a lot of appeal to trade partners but less real, long-term utility. That kind of self-scouting is imperative, and I think on truth serum, Brian Cashman would tell you it’s why he dealt Wesneski. To me, there are some signs that Gasser is that kind of pitcher, but I don’t have any inside info suggesting the Brewers feel the same. It’s just my own sense and reading of watching him and his data.

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    8 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

    Different front office, but same owner. I’m just saying, it’s clear that the Brewers can and will (and I’ll argue that, at least eventually, they need to) spend money in free agency to compete consistently under Attanasio. 
     

    My broader point, which perhaps got lost before I even fully made it, is that one thing good front offices do is identify guys in their own system who might have a lot of appeal to trade partners but less real, long-term utility. That kind of self-scouting is imperative, and I think on truth serum, Brian Cashman would tell you it’s why he dealt Wesneski. To me, there are some signs that Gasser is that kind of pitcher, but I don’t have any inside info suggesting the Brewers feel the same. It’s just my own sense and reading of watching him and his data.

    And what is the reasoning that Gasser is that pitcher that’s overrated. 

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    35 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

    And what is the reasoning that Gasser is that pitcher that’s overrated. 

    Neither ride nor velocity on the four-seamer; it’s pretty straight. Sinker is his more natural heat, but that’s tough to make work as the linchpin of a lefty starter profile. Cutter and slider lack vertical separation, which puts a lot of pressure on command of that fastball, something he’s struggled to show consistently so far. You want to see him effectively mix the four-seam, change, and cutter to righties, and still be able to go sinker-slider to lefties. That’s tough, man. It’s especially stuff when you don’t have a fastball that creates margin for error.

    There are a lot of good pieces with him. I’m just not *fully* sold that there’s a good whole picture to assemble from them. A lot of these medium-high tier pitching prospects have run into similar issues lately. He’s getting a little old and experienced to keep betting that the corners will be turned.

    Im not an expert. I could be wrong, and they could envision stuff based on his proprietary kinetic data or whatever that changes the equation. But I don’t think cashing him in while his trade value is riding high is a bad idea. (Notably, that doesn’t mean it needs to be for Hernandez. He could headline a trade for a Jeimer Candelario, or even be a big piece of one for Ryan McMahon. Some of that just depends on the other offers those guys’ teams get.)

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    1 minute ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

    Neither ride nor velocity on the four-seamer; it’s pretty straight. Sinker is his more natural heat, but that’s tough to make work as the linchpin of a lefty starter profile. Cutter and slider lack vertical separation, which puts a lot of pressure on command of that fastball, something he’s struggled to show consistently so far. You want to see him effectively mix the four-seam, change, and cutter to righties, and still be able to go sinker-slider to lefties. That’s tough, man. It’s especially stuff when you don’t have a fastball that creates margin for error.

    There are a lot of good pieces with him. I’m just not *fully* sold that there’s a good whole picture to assemble from them. A lot of these medium-high tier pitching prospects have run into similar issues lately. He’s getting a little old and experienced to keep betting that the corners will be turned.

    Im not an expert. I could be wrong, and they could envision stuff based on his proprietary kinetic data or whatever that changes the equation. But I don’t think cashing him in while his trade value is riding high is a bad idea. (Notably, that doesn’t mean it needs to be for Hernandez. He could headline a trade for a Jeimer Candelario, or even be a big piece of one for Ryan McMahon. Some of that just depends on the other offers those guys’ teams get.)

    What you’re ignoring about Gasser’s FB is that despite the average-ish IVB, it has an elite VAA at -4.1 degrees. 
     

    Also his slider/cutter/curveball statcast info is a mess because they are constantly messing up the pitch classifications with him. 

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    7 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

    What you’re ignoring about Gasser’s FB is that despite the average-ish IVB, it has an elite VAA at -4.1 degrees. 
     

    Also his slider/cutter/curveball statcast info is a mess because they are constantly messing up the pitch classifications with him. 

    I find Statcast pitch classifications to be a mess in general, so I use PitchInfo, skirting the second issue. I feel pretty confident, partly because of corroboration from some more expert eyes, that he’s got breaking ball problems.

    I’m aware of the VAA, and you’re right, that lets the pitch play up. I’m a big believer that the utility of an extreme VAA hinges on command, though. At that point, my feeling of uncertainty is just that I’m not convicted on him reaching that command threshold he needs. But again, could totally be wrong. Would love to be. There’s certainly still a mid-rotation ceiling. I think we just diverge a bit on the probability of that payoff.

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    See, I'm looking around at SP/RP options available...I'm almost wondering if the Brewers are best served making a true baseball trade of pitching for hitting at the deadline. We could trade an arm performing well with team control to a team like the angels/mariners/padres/etc...for a better rental that they'll lose next year. I wonder if a Rea for Justin Turner type of swap makes sense. The Orioles have a lot of young pitchers and would make sense to add a starter and move to a 6 starter rotation to lower the innings count on some younger arms, they also have an abundance of corner OF/1b types between MLB and AAA and would make sense to trade one with less team control to open up space for Kjerstad/Cowser to get more regular AB. Point being, there are more teams with available bat first corner OF/1b types than teams with varying levels of quality/in form SP available at the deadline.

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    1 hour ago, KeithStone53151 said:

    See, I'm looking around at SP/RP options available...I'm almost wondering if the Brewers are best served making a true baseball trade of pitching for hitting at the deadline. We could trade an arm performing well with team control to a team like the angels/mariners/padres/etc...for a better rental that they'll lose next year. I wonder if a Rea for Justin Turner type of swap makes sense. The Orioles have a lot of young pitchers and would make sense to add a starter and move to a 6 starter rotation to lower the innings count on some younger arms, they also have an abundance of corner OF/1b types between MLB and AAA and would make sense to trade one with less team control to open up space for Kjerstad/Cowser to get more regular AB. Point being, there are more teams with available bat first corner OF/1b types than teams with varying levels of quality/in form SP available at the deadline.

    That type of deadline move is a rarer bird, but I was thinking the same thing recently. I just don't know what kind of an upgrade you can achieve offensively w/o dealing a prospect that I wouldn't want to deal. IIRC the A's & Red Sox did something similar a few years ago?

    I'm starting to think that if we deal any substantial prospects in the next week it might come from the position-player group at Carolina not named Luke Adams (Areinamo, Guilarte, Avina, Lara). There's some positional depth at those spots.

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    1 hour ago, KeithStone53151 said:

    See, I'm looking around at SP/RP options available...I'm almost wondering if the Brewers are best served making a true baseball trade of pitching for hitting at the deadline. We could trade an arm performing well with team control to a team like the angels/mariners/padres/etc...for a better rental that they'll lose next year. I wonder if a Rea for Justin Turner type of swap makes sense. The Orioles have a lot of young pitchers and would make sense to add a starter and move to a 6 starter rotation to lower the innings count on some younger arms, they also have an abundance of corner OF/1b types between MLB and AAA and would make sense to trade one with less team control to open up space for Kjerstad/Cowser to get more regular AB. Point being, there are more teams with available bat first corner OF/1b types than teams with varying levels of quality/in form SP available at the deadline.

    A Colin Rea for Justin Turner “type” swap?

    What’s that… a type of trade where you hire someone who will threaten to kill the GMs family unless they make an idiotic trade? Boy there’s been some real doozies thrown around here lately. 

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    2 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

    A Colin Rea for Justin Turner “type” swap?

    What’s that… a type of trade where you hire someone who will threaten to kill the GMs family unless they make an idiotic trade? Boy there’s been some real doozies thrown around here lately. 

    No more idiotic than Chourio for McMahon. 

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    26 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

    No more idiotic than Chourio for McMahon. 

    Sorry Homey, reading comprehension. Never was proposed, never said it would go through. Good try however.

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    2 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

    Sorry Homey, reading comprehension. Never was proposed, never said it would go through. Good try however.

    "Homey"??

    No, but you said the Rockies would be justified in asking for Chourio. Just as "idiotic" from my perspective as the trade proposals you're criticizing as idiotic. 

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    1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

    A Colin Rea for Justin Turner “type” swap?

    What’s that… a type of trade where you hire someone who will threaten to kill the GMs family unless they make an idiotic trade? Boy there’s been some real doozies thrown around here lately. 

    This is more of a suggested framework than a specific proposal, but I'm a bit shocked that you find this as one sided as you do...I'm not sure which side is getting fleeced in your opinion

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