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  • The Top 10 Milwaukee Brewers Assets in 2023: #6-10


    Kyle Ginsbach

    The Milwaukee Brewers are a small market team that needs to effectively manage its assets, often with an eye to the future. Here are some of the most valuable assets the team currently holds.

    Image courtesy of © Wm. Glasheen/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK

    Brewers Video

    The rankings below are a relative view of Brewers players and prospects based on the answer to one question: How valuable is this player to the Milwaukee Brewers organization?

    We’ve done our best to account for all things a baseball player can provide in value, including age, contract, controllability, potential, etc. The rankings do not directly correlate with trade value. Instead, the list better represents how valuable a player is to the organization.

    With that setup, here are my picks for the 6th through 10th most valuable assets in the Milwaukee Brewers organization heading into the 2023 season.

    The Top 10 Brewers Assets for 2023: 6 through 10

    Honorable Mention. Christian Yelich, OF
    Conventionally, Christain Yelich’s contract single-handedly ruins his monetary value. There’s no denying that, but Yelich can be worth more than his contract with the Brewers. 

    For whatever reason, the MVP form of Christian Yelich has disappeared over the last three years. Still, Yelich is now one of the longest-tenured Brewers and still possesses a high offensive ceiling with a relatively low floor. By giving him an honorable mention nod, I’m betting Yelich will take steps towards returning to being the player he was in 2018-2019, which can come with improved health and some minor adjustments.

    A fully healthy Yelich is still capable of playing 140+ games, hitting 20 home runs, and getting on base at a high clip. Will he play at a $26 million level? Probably not, but there’s no denying Yelich will be a key contributor if the Brewers are successful.

    10. Rowdy Tellez, 1B
    With two more years of inexpensive control left, Tellez has a shot at breaking out this year. The first base job is his to lose, and with changes to the shift coming, Tellez’s already plus bat could see an uptick in production. If Tellez can find a way to have a few more hits fall, he has the potential to be one of the better-hitting first basemen in the league. 

    If Rowdy Tellez puts it all together, there's a world where the Brewers keep him around for a long time. Already a key clubhouse member, Rowdy is a larger-than-life personality who also swings a pretty good bat.

    9. Jesse Winker, OF/DH
    Coming into a contract year, Jesse Winker could be a huge contributor for the Brewers offensively. His checkered bill of health is concerning, as is his poor performance last year, but there’s plenty of reason to believe Winker can be the player the Brewers saw back when he was a member of the Cincinnati Reds. 

    There’s also a possibility that Winker will be moved near the trade deadline. I see two scenarios where this is possible: one where the Brewers are out of the race early or a world where Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, and Joey Wiemer can comfortably fill a vacant spot should Winker be moved. It may seem unlikely now, but it’s worth mentioning. 

    A healthy Jesse Winker can quickly become an offensive nucleus for the Brewers. Even though Winker likely won't be in a Brewer past 2023, I expect him to be an important bat in a competitive season, even if it's only for a single season.

    8. Luis Urías, 2B
    Luis Urías is still only 25 years old. He has three years of control and has already proven he can be valuable with the glove and bat.

    His power is what makes Urías such a pleasant surprise. Coming through the minor leagues with the Padres, Urías wasn't given a friendly grade regarding his power but has shown he can slug over .400 while popping 20 homers. 

    Throughout his young career, Urías has been able to stay relatively healthy, showing he can play multiple infield positions. Urias may not be the most exciting player, but he’ll generate 3-4 WAR for a low price.

    7. Devin Williams, RP
    The only thing hurting Devin Williams’ overall value is that he’s a relief pitcher. Williams made his first all-star game in 2022 and took over the closer role following the Josh Hader trade. His season numbers were excellent, posting a 1.93 ERA, a WHIP of 1.005, and FIP of just 2.01. 

    There’s no doubt Williams will be able to replicate his dominance on the mound in the future, but as a closer, the Brewers need to win late for him to get into games. The more that happens, the more valuable Williams will become.

    The Brewers will lean on Williams to navigate them in and out of trouble in 2022 and beyond and there's no reasonable doubt he can't do it.

    6.  Jackson Chourio, OF
    You could very well argue that Jackson Chourio is the most valuable player in the Brewers organization right now, and in many ways, you’d be right.

    At just 18 years of age, Chourio is not only the Brewers' top prospect but also one of the top prospects in all of baseball. He had a fantastic season throughout the minor leagues in 2022, including being named the Carolina League Most Valuable Player, winning a MILB gold glove, and slashing .288/.342/.538 between three teams.

    There’s no doubt that Chourio, traditionally speaking, is the most valuable asset the Brewers have. However, there’s one thing holding him back on my list. Jackson Chourio’s impact likely won’t be felt in 2023. It might not even be felt in 2024. He’s too valuable to be traded and too young to impact the big-league club. With only a handful of AA games under his belt, Chourio still has a ways to go before he's ready to contribute to the big league club. Because of that, Chourio needs time, so for as valuable and talented as he is, there’s nothing we can do but wait.

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    I don’t want to hurt the author’s feelings, but if Tellez and Winker are the Brewers 9th and 10th most valuable assets they’re in big trouble. They might not even be the 9-10th most valuable assets on their 40 man roster. 

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    8 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

    I don’t want to hurt the author’s feelings, but if Tellez and Winker are the Brewers 9th and 10th most valuable assets they’re in big trouble. They might not even be the 9-10th most valuable assets on their 40 man roster. 

    I agree with this. I was thinking the same thing as I read it. But then I saw Chourio at #6 and thought if he's at #6, this organization is in a great spot! 

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    37 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

    I agree with this. I was thinking the same thing as I read it. But then I saw Chourio at #6 and thought if he's at #6, this organization is in a great spot! 

    But even #6 is kind of a goofy position to take. An intriguing prospect, absolutely. But still a child, and multiple seasons away from being a regular in the majors. Moreover, with only low level minors experience, but good numbers at that, anything can still happen to his trajectory at this point: boom or bust.
     

    With that being said, all of their key every day  major leaguers are more valuable to the organization in the here and now, as well as the few premium prospects they have who are near major league ready. 

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    4 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

    I think if Chourio has a good 2022 season, he's going to be in Milwaukee sooner than a couple seasons from now.

     

    He already had a good season with in ‘22. You mean ‘23. Sure if he puts up a .900 OPS in AA maybe they skip AAA altogether but that’s not really the Brewers style, especially a player who isn’t even 19 yet.

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    Kyle Ginsbach
  • Brewer Fanatic Contributor
  • Posted

    2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

    I don’t want to hurt the author’s feelings, but if Tellez and Winker are the Brewers 9th and 10th most valuable assets they’re in big trouble. They might not even be the 9-10th most valuable assets on their 40 man roster. 

    No need to worry about my feelings! 

    I certainly see the thought process behind not being a fan of seeing both Winker and Tellez on the list, but I truly think both Winker and Tellez are slated to have great offensive seasons in 2023. I could certainly see prospects such as Mitchell, Frelick, and Wiemer getting spots on this list if I were to put it together at the All-Star Break, but they all have areas to improve (Mitchell's concerning MLB K% or Frelick's power tool for example), and I hesitate to value a prospect highly when they don't have the type of ceiling Chourio does. Sure the years of control are attractive, but they'll mean nothing If they aren't successful at the big league level.

    That being said, If guys like the aforementioned Frelick, Mitchell, and Wiemer take strike this year, they'll certainly be on the list next year. Even guys like Turang, Gasser, Black, and Quero have chances to crack the list next year. I'm a fan of some of all the young minor league talent the Brewers have, but I'm trying to be cautiously optimistic. 

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    8 minutes ago, Kyle Ginsbach said:

    No need to worry about my feelings! 

    I certainly see the thought process behind not being a fan of seeing both Winker and Tellez on the list, but I truly think both Winker and Tellez are slated to have great offensive seasons in 2023. I could certainly see prospects such as Mitchell, Frelick, and Wiemer getting spots on this list if I were to put it together at the All-Star Break, but they all have areas to improve (Mitchell's concerning MLB K% or Frelick's power tool for example), and I hesitate to value a prospect highly when they don't have the type of ceiling Chourio does. Sure the years of control are attractive, but they'll mean nothing If they aren't successful at the big league level.

    That being said, If guys like the aforementioned Frelick, Mitchell, and Wiemer take strike this year, they'll certainly be on the list next year. Even guys like Turang, Gasser, Black, and Quero have chances to crack the list next year. I'm a fan of some of all the young minor league talent the Brewers have, but I'm trying to be cautiously optimistic. 

    I suppose, but how can 1-4 be anything but Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer? Then Adames and Contreras at 5-6, then you have to figure Houser and Ashby around 7-8 as they both are bonafide major leaguers who can start and relieve with better than average results. Add in Urias, Devin Williams, that's 10 right there. As highly touted minor leaguers at the cusp of the majors you'd have to have Frelick, Mitchell, and Wiemer somewhere near there. Then, Tyrone Taylor (not my favorite player) but plays all three OF spots and remains pre-arbitration eligible. Now we'd be getting into the flawed players area where I think Winker, Tellez fit. Yelich is the great unknown too. I doubt he ever "finds it" again, but if he did he would be #1 or #2 with a bullet. 

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    I think if you're talking pure value in terms of trade values and what you'd get in a return, Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta are top of the list (Peralta because of his team friendly deal)

    Chourio could be in that group and was suggested he'd have been 1-1 in this years draft, comfortably by Keith Law

    Adames would be next at Number 5, and comfortably so

    Urias

    may be 6 due to his contract and + Offensive bat, plus he's a quality defender

    7-10 take your pick

     

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    Kyle Ginsbach
  • Brewer Fanatic Contributor
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    11 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

    I suppose, but how can 1-4 be anything but Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer? Then Adames and Contreras at 5-6, then you have to figure Houser and Ashby around 7-8 as they both are bonafide major leaguers who can start and relieve with better than average results. Add in Urias, Devin Williams, that's 10 right there. As highly touted minor leaguers at the cusp of the majors you'd have to have Frelick, Mitchell, and Wiemer somewhere near there. Then, Tyrone Taylor (not my favorite player) but plays all three OF spots and remains pre-arbitration eligible. Now we'd be getting into the flawed players area where I think Winker, Tellez fit. Yelich is the great unknown too. I doubt he ever "finds it" again, but if he did he would be #1 or #2 with a bullet. 

    I think many people have fallen into the trap of over-evaluating Houser and Lauer in particular. Houser's never had a WHIP below 1.2, hasn't posted a FIP below 4 since 2019, and has some of the extremely poor underlying numbers. Although Lauer was a nice surprise last year, he struggles from the same underlying number problems Houser, and has never had a FIP under 4. Both Houser and Lauer have two years of control left before they're UFA's, and I you can't reasonably expect them to be anything more than average starters. 

    If Aaron Ashby can solidify himself in the rotation this year, I can promise he'd shoot up this list next year. His contract is incredibly team friendly, but he has to prove himself first. Remember, Ashby wasn't any kind of world breaking prospect, even if the Brewers were particularly high on him.

    As for Tyrone Taylor, I don't think he has a argument for a spot on this list. I wonder how much time he'll see next year, and though he has 3 years of control left, he's nearly 29-years-old already. 

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    2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

    But even #6 is kind of a goofy position to take. An intriguing prospect, absolutely. But still a child, and multiple seasons away from being a regular in the majors. Moreover, with only low level minors experience, but good numbers at that, anything can still happen to his trajectory at this point: boom or bust.
     

    With that being said, all of their key every day  major leaguers are more valuable to the organization in the here and now, as well as the few premium prospects they have who are near major league ready. 

    I would argue that the fact that he has about 8-9 years of team control, including another minor league season or even two, 3-4 years of cheap cost, and then 3-4 arbitration years. 

    Woodruff is very valuable in 2023 and probably will cost around $10 million, but he's only got two years of service time yet. 

    In a trade, the Brewers could get more for dealing just Chourio than probably anyone but Burnes and Adames... 

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    52 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

    I would argue that the fact that he has about 8-9 years of team control, including another minor league season or even two, 3-4 years of cheap cost, and then 3-4 arbitration years. 

    Woodruff is very valuable in 2023 and probably will cost around $10 million, but he's only got two years of service time yet. 

    In a trade, the Brewers could get more for dealing just Chourio than probably anyone but Burnes and Adames... 

    Not a chance. Major league  league starting pitching brings more every time. 
     

    Chourio doesn’t have as much value to other clubs as one would think.
     

    1.) Elite prospect for elite prospect trades rarely if ever happen.

    2.) Teams trying to compete now, aren’t going to trade key veterans for Chourio as it’s counter intuitive. 

    3.) Given where the Brewers competitive window is, they can’t really afford to trade too many young players for veterans from the non-contenders. 

     

    As for his internal value to the Brewers, Chourio could very well be the next Ryan Braun, but nobody is going to have more than blind guess (ex. check out his winter league stats… they’re not good) if that’s true (best case scenario) at least for another year or possibly more, by which that time most of the current 25 man roster will either be gone or almost out the door. 
    It would be a different story if he blew the doors off of AA last year and was ticketed for AAA, he’s still a ways away.

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    1. Burnes (In conversation for best SP in baseball)
    2. Woodruff (Top 10-ish SP in baseball)
    3. Chourio (Consensus Top 10 prospect as a teenager)
    4. Peralta (Extension helps, injuries hurt)
    5. Adames (Top 10-ish SS in baseball)
    6. Williams (Top 5-ish reliever in MLB)
    7. Contreras (young All Star Catcher)
    8. Ashby (Extension & stuff helps, results not quite there yet)
    9. Urias (Solid MLB IF + team control)
    10. Frelick (Best non-Chourio prospect)

    HM: Wiemer, Mitchell, Taylor, Turang, Quero

    Dishonorable Mention: Yelich
     

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    Honestly, if we're talking about surplus value, Chourio is probably up there with Corbin Burnes as our most valuable franchise asset. Indeed, this is backed up by BTV, which has Chourio just three points shy of Burnes. I get that he's a prospect. but he's among the elites of elites in terms of prospects (Acuna, Rodriguez, Soto, etc.) for what he's already accomplished at his age. 

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    13 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

     

    As for his internal value to the Brewers, Chourio could very well be the next Ryan Braun, but nobody is going to have more than blind guess (ex. check out his winter league stats… they’re not good) if that’s true (best case scenario) at least for another year or possibly more, by which that time most of the current 25 man roster will either be gone or almost out the door. 
    It would be a different story if he blew the doors off of AA last year and was ticketed for AAA, he’s still a ways away.

    First of all, you can take his winter league stats with less than a grain of salt considering the extremely small sample size and the fact that he's more than a decade younger than the average player....

    Second, he's not as far away as you think. The median expectation from industry experts is that he'll arrive in the majors sometime next season, while there are a non-trivial number of evaluators who think he could make his debut later in this coming season. 

    I also contest that it's no more than a "blind guess" that he'll pan out for the Brewers. What he's accomplished at his age is something that only a handful of prospects have done in recent years (Soto, Acuna, Tatis Jr., Vlad Jr., Rodriguez, etc.), and all of them ended up becoming superstars. Chourio could ultimately prove to be the exception given the inherently fickle nature of prospects, but it's certainly more than a "blind guess" given the company he's established himself to be in...

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    19 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

    First of all, you can take his winter league stats with less than a grain of salt considering the extremely small sample size and the fact that he's more than a decade younger than the average player....

    Second, he's not as far away as you think. The median expectation from industry experts is that he'll arrive in the majors sometime next season, while there are a non-trivial number of evaluators who think he could make his debut later in this coming season. 

    I also contest that it's no more than a "blind guess" that he'll pan out for the Brewers. What he's accomplished at his age is something that only a handful of prospects have done in recent years (Soto, Acuna, Tatis Jr., Vlad Jr., Rodriguez, etc.), and all of them ended up becoming superstars. Chourio could ultimately prove to be the exception given the inherently fickle nature of prospects, but it's certainly more than a "blind guess" given the company he's established himself to be in...

    It is a blind guess because for every Tatis Jr. there’s a Jon Singleton. He looks promising I hope it turns out that way, but it’s still just guessing on future production based on past performance. 
     

    As for timing, never say never, but in the last 25 years the Brewers haven’t really skipped any of their prospects through the upper minors to the major leagues, so it likely will be sometime before Chourio is a major league regular even if he continues to rake. Prince Fielder the best high school prospect they previously had; put up a 921 OPS in the minors yet played most of a season at each level. 

     

     

     

     

     

     

     


     

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    1 minute ago, Jopal78 said:

    It is a blind guess because for every Tatis Jr. there’s a Jon Singleton. He looks promising I hope it turns out that way, but it’s still just guessing on future production based on past performance.

    Singleton peaked in the prospect rankings at #25 following his age 20 season as a hit only 1B.

    Tatis Jr peaked at #2 following his age 19 season as a five tool SS.

    Those are two way different calibres of prospects.

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    18 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

    It is a blind guess because for every Tatis Jr. there’s a Jon Singleton. He looks promising I hope it turns out that way, but it’s still just guessing on future production based on past performance. 
     

    As for timing, never say never, but in the last 25 years the Brewers haven’t really skipped any of their prospects through the upper minors to the major leagues, so it likely will be sometime before Chourio is a major league regular even if he continues to rake. Prince Fielder the best high school prospect they previously had; put up a 921 OPS in the minors yet played most of a season at each level. 

     

     

     

     

     

     

     


     

    No. Tatis Jr. and Singleton are not, and never will be, remotely comparable prospects. Tatis Jr. and Chourio are comparable. But Singleton has no relevance to them. When you look at Chourio's actual comparables (Soto, Acuna, Tatis, Vlad Jr., Rodriguez) you can see that it's more than a "blind guess". Not a certainty, but not a blind guess...

    Also, you do realize that, in this past season alone, Chourio skipped rookie ball entirely, and then moved up three whole levels??? Not sure why 25 years or Prince Fielder is relevant here when we have definitive, recent evidence that the Brewers are willing to push Chourio up the ladder...

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    3 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

    Singleton peaked in the prospect rankings at #25 following his age 20 season as a hit only 1B.

    Tatis Jr peaked at #2 following his age 19 season as a five tool SS.

    Those are two way different calibres of prospects.

    And Chourio is already at 2 (BA) following his age 18 season...

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    Considering some assortment of Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta/Adames/Contreras have to be 1-5 I would agree with the list for the most part. Since this is about how valuable the player is to the Brewers organization I would think Yelich would be somewhere in the 8-10 range as he is still the face of the franchise, likely would be the number one answer if a Family Feud type question was asked of a 100 random fans outside the stadium. 

    This will likely be the lowest Chourio will be for a long  time but okay at 7 right now.. Agree with Winker on the list because the Brewers are pretty much counting on him to have a bounce back season. I think Ashby can make a strong case to be on the list, clearly they targeted him as somebody they will count on for a long time and somebody to take over for Woodruff/Burnes when they leave.

     

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    39 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

    No. Tatis Jr. and Singleton are not, and never will be, remotely comparable prospects. Tatis Jr. and Chourio are comparable. But Singleton has no relevance to them. When you look at Chourio's actual comparables (Soto, Acuna, Tatis, Vlad Jr., Rodriguez) you can see that it's more than a "blind guess". Not a certainty, but not a blind guess...

    Also, you do realize that, in this past season alone, Chourio skipped rookie ball entirely, and then moved up three whole levels??? Not sure why 25 years or Prince Fielder is relevant here when we have definitive, recent evidence that the Brewers are willing to push Chourio up the ladder...

    Who says they're comparable? Sportswriters looking for clicks? And "Actual Comparables" is based on what; other players who had big minor league seasons as kids in the low level minors? None of the prospect game is scientific, it's heartstrings and hopes and making educated guesses. 

    To illustrate further:

    Singleton-Low A at 18: 872 OPS (450 ABs), High A at 19 : .834 OPS(530 ABs), AA at 20: .893 (555 ABs).

    Chourio-Low A at 18: 973 OPS (250 ABs) High A at 18: .805 OPS (127 ABs), AA at 18: .284 OPS (23 ABs).

    Chourio will have to be on top of his game for the next two years, just to match what Singleton did in the minors through age 20, yet they're not comparable prospects for some reason?

    When someone has made their mind up and won't consider alternative possibilities, there's no real point in further discussion.

    However, I'm sure you didn't realize but it is worth noting anyways, Chourio did play for the Brewers rookie ball team in '21 in the Dominican Rookie Summer League. It's really splitting hairs to assert he "skipped rookie ball entirely".  

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    By BTV, it's:

    1. Burnes

    2. Chourio

    3.  Peralta

    4. Woodruff

    5. Adames

    6. Contreras

    7. Williams

    8. Ashby

    9. Frelick

    10. Urias

    11. Mitchell

    12. Wiemer

    13. Taylor

    14. Turang.

    15. Brown

    16. Black

    17. Lauer

    18. Quero.

    I can't see justification for moving any of them more than 2-3 slots.

     

     

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    21 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

    Chourio will have to be on top of his game for the next two years, just to match what Singleton did in the minors through age 20, yet they're not comparable prospects for some reason?

    If so, you have greater wisdom than just about everyone who studies baseball prospects.

     

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    30 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

    Who says they're comparable? Sportswriters looking for clicks? And "Actual Comparables" is based on what; other players who had big minor league seasons as kids in the low level minors? None of the prospect game is scientific, it's heartstrings and hopes and making educated guesses. 

    To illustrate further:

    Singleton-Low A at 18: 872 OPS (450 ABs), High A at 19 : .834 OPS(530 ABs), AA at 20: .893 (555 ABs).

    Chourio-Low A at 18: 973 OPS (250 ABs) High A at 18: .805 OPS (127 ABs), AA at 18: .284 OPS (23 ABs).

    Chourio will have to be on top of his game for the next two years, just to match what Singleton did in the minors through age 20, yet they're not comparable prospects for some reason?

    When someone has made their mind up and won't consider alternative possibilities, there's no real point in further discussion.

    However, I'm sure you didn't realize but it is worth noting anyways, Chourio did play for the Brewers rookie ball team in '21 in the Dominican Rookie Summer League. It's really splitting hairs to assert he "skipped rookie ball entirely".  

    Who says? Actual prospect industry scouts, experts, and evaluators...You know, people who do this for a living. As @sveumrules pointed out, Chourio and Tatis Jr. are/were top 5 multitool teenage prospects, while Singleton was a hit-only prospect who peaked at #25. Even then, Chourio's age 18 season with the bat was significantly better than Singleton's age 18 season with the bat. 

    Also, the DSL, while technically "rookie ball", is in practice a level beneath the Brewers' Arizona rookie affiliates. Henry Mendez, for instance, was in the same international FA class as Chourio, but still did the DSL AND ACL, while Chourio skipped the ACL entirely and then progressed all the way to AA. But, yes, 25 years and Prince Fielder are more relevant for thinking about how the Brewers will handle Chourio's progression...

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    24 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

    If so, you have greater wisdom than just about everyone who studies baseball prospects.

     

    Nope. I’ve got a calculator and baseball reference bookmarked. 
     

    You too with a little time and effort could calculate Singleton’s PAs and OPS through age 20, and then even determine exactly how much offensive production Chourio will have to generate in the next two seasons to match it. 
     

    Singleton wasn’t a slouch in the low levels of the minors. 

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    25 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

    Who says? Actual prospect industry scouts, experts, and evaluators...You know, people who do this for a living.

    Guys like Kieth Law? That Harvard educated economist slash sports journalist who never played baseball? 

    You know, the guy who published an article in September titled “Guys I was Wrong About”

     If it was a science or required a specific skill not everyone could do it. Yet literally anyone can compile a list of baseball players and argue until they’re blue in the face how awesome they are or how dumb anyone who questions them may be. 

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