Three Pitchers to Watch at Milwaukee Brewers Spring Training

Tobias 4 seam fastball averaged 94.1 mph  all season long.   I do not know where you got that 92 mph number but that is not the average I have on him.    His fastball was never as slow as 92 and he touched 95 all the time especially after his White Sox moment.   I was a big Tobias Myers fan last year  and I never missed a game and have watched his film this offseason a lot.  His 4 seamer is best at 94 and seems to lose some of its wiff ability when he ramps it up over that. Though his 95 stuff plays its not the same pitch . When he does tick it up to 95 though it seems it baffles hitters.    That lift he gets on his 4 seamer is special. I can see it bringing more strikeouts as Myers gets even more sure he belongs here.   I think he will have a nice career moving forwards.    I think Tobias is one of the guys who saves the Brewers when they lose Freddy and need to start anew in the rotation .     I really see big things for Myers here in Milwaukee and do not expect him to fall back.   Time will tell but for now he is my favorite young pitcher in baseball and I believe it will stay that way when he shows out this summer! 

Hudson baffles me .   His dip in velo you mention is not something I noticed at the time.  His pitching seemed to look about the same when they sent him to AAA as it did when he was pre All Star Break .   Unlike Myers however I cannot say for sure I know he did not have that low of numbers on velo because I simply did not see a reason to look into it.   To me he seemed fine when they sent him down.   I saw a pitcher who had one or two bad nights against the Dodgers who abused him but outside of a handful of relief games hudson was a sub 2 ERA player right up until they sent him down.     I think Ashby being reborn as a bullpen guy had a lot to do with how they handled Hudson at the end of 2024.    I cannot believe he does not just step into 2025 with fire in his belly and ready to prove the world wrong.   Hudson was not just good for the beginning of 2024 he was our best reliever for the first 50% of the season.   He is really a guy you have to watch this Spring because he can be a real weapon for this franchise at his best.    

DL Hall is a guy who can completely make the rotation in 25' .   He has enough to start but has shown long outings can sneak up on him.   Everyone wants to see him as starter because his bullpen stuff is just not that special .   If he has a strong Spring and takes #5 it makes things easy for the Brewers .    I have little faith but leave room for him to surprise me. 

I think Patrick and Henderson are eyes on names you have to watch this spring.   I think Patrick is better than most people give him credit for.   If Henderson can find a 3rd or even 4th pitch we have something.  Myers found more pitches during the season last year so it is not out of the realm of possibility Henderson can find another pitch or two to make himself into a solid starting pitcher .    

I think Jacob M is destined for a full year in AAA. But with a outstanding spring where walks do not haunt him could force the Brewers to bring their star pitcher into the rotation before anyone expected.   No one needs to be watched closer than Jacob.       

Great article thanks for it. 

Tobias pitched one wacko wild pitch against the Mets in the playoffs that hit 98 but was "Just a bit outside".  

17 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

I'm glad you liked it!

So I got this from baseball savant which categorized Myers average fastball as 92.9 mph throughout the year. I do think it ticked up as the year went on, especially in how he started games in the first/second innings, and was maybe closer to that 93.5-94 range as the season reached its close!

Another big reason for the fascination is the above chart. Here's the expected slugging numbers against his fastball on different ranges:

89-91mph: .727

91-93mph: .592

93-95mph: .392

95+ mph: .137

 

Living more regularly in that 94 mph range marks a big difference in the damage done against Myers fastball, and I'm fascinated to see if he can reach and maintain that over the course of a season.

I agree on Patrick, Henderson maybe needs another pitch to be a bona fide starter but Patrick's cutter was seriously impressive and as Joseph Zarr mentioned in his podcast with Spencer, the guy seems to have a really solid feel for his arsenal and how to vary and use it which should help in the big leagues.

You have no argument from me that Patrick is the sneaky possible Star pitcher who carries low an  ERA his entire career because he knows how to use his pitches very well .  I watch him pitch and cannot understand what we are waiting for or why there is not more hype around his time for a call up to the Bigs.    he seems like a guy who can be a solid rotational pitcher bordering on special with room to even touch Stardome.     He looked better than Civale ever did to me at least but we waited a full season more to get to this point and let other pitchers I do not like much (Rodrigues)  have their go last season instead.    I am sure they had good reason for the holding him up and I believe injury had something to do with it .    He has me excited to see his Spring into summer.   I think he is the most ready to take that other rotational spot in 2025.   

The one I feel needs to add one more pitch the most is Logan Henderson.    He like Myers last season only was said to have only  two main pitches at first glance coming up.   After we saw Myers in real baseball games it seemed obvious to think the Brewers had him working on his two best pitches in AAA at the end of 2023 and the start of 2024.  This made it seem to those who track data as if he only had the two really good MLB level pitches.   When he got up here we saw he had more than that and by the Colorado series he had a complete 4 pitch mix that all seemed to play off each other well.       I am guessing this will be a similar path for Logan Henderson who everyone says is a two pitch pitcher.     My guess is the Brewers really want him to work his two best pitches so his other stuff can be threaded in after he gets himself established on an MLB mound.    

No matter how it shakes out I am pumped to see the entire thing play out .  I love new pitching so 2025 should be a fun season and we should see superior pitching through all the levels of Brewers baseball . 

Good chatting sir and I appreciate your numbers and your time thanks for the topic and article.   

On 2/10/2025 at 6:12 PM, Jake McKibbin said:

With pitchers and catchers reporting this week, some Brewers pitchers will look at this as a big season to make a name for themselves. Here are three particular pitchers to keep an eye on.

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

It's been over four months since the Brewers played a baseball game of any form. In that time, it's easy to forget the form some players were in to finish the season, or the shoots of growth they found approaching the playoffs. There are three names, in particular, who have a fascinating year ahead of them—either due to offseason work or to address those flashes to finish 2024.

Tobias Myers Finishing Straight
Tobias Myers finished last season on an incredible high, pitching five shutout innings in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series while allowing just three baserunners and going through the order twice. In doing so, he capped off what had been a fascinating turnaround in his ability to generate swing-and-miss to finish the season.

Myers's fastball in the playoffs graded out spectacularly, per Thomas Nestico's pitch-grading data, averaging 20" of induced vertical break while adding a tick in velo. This velocity range isn't uncommon from Myers, who was historically in the 93-95 range for the Rays back in 2021, but it has taken him a while to build it back up in the Brewers system after various injuries and adjustments. It gave him a 70-grade offering, and the whiff rate backed that up.

During the season, his fastball wasn't generating a lot of swing and miss, at times getting hit hard in the air, but he mitigated the damage well. It doesn't take much additional velocity or movement to go from avoiding barrels on a fastball to having a hitter swing underneath the pitch, and that's exactly what Myers showed in the playoffs. An extra mile per hour and/or inch of IVB made all the difference.

Myers showed this ability, not only in the playoffs, but also in September, before easing off as the Brewers hit the finish line. If he can hover in and around that 94-mph mark, rather than the 92.5-mph range he sat most of the season, then his underlying numbers would bring about a whole new projection for him.

DL Hall's Knee Surgery
Like Myers, Hall's fastball is his primary offering, and he'll need it to succeed in 2025. Plagued by a knee injury over the last few years, his pain got considerably worse in 2024. Hall's fastball never regained the characteristics it showed with the Baltimore Orioles out of the pen. Even after returning from his injury, Hall showed some progress for the Brewers, but not quite enough to make him the dominant stuff merchant he was advertised to be.

During 2024, Hall's secondaries took real strides forward in terms of command and movement, to the point where his changeup and slider all looked highly effective. They posted above-average whiff rates and limited the quality of contact against them. If he can get close to the fastball shape he showed with the Orioles, then the arsenal begins to look deadly.

The big change for Hall is that he underwent knee surgery to clean up scar tissue where the sprain occurred—an area in which Hall has felt discomfort dating back to 2021. We saw on his comeback how a healthier knee (if not perfect) aided his velocity somewhat, and another small bump on a clean bill of health could go a long way.

Like Myers, Hall induced a lot of pop-ups and weak fly balls in August and September. He was struggling to put hitters away, though, because he couldn't miss bats with the fastball in the zone. Yet, he was a mere tick away from turning those pop-ups into whiffs and turning hard-hit balls into pop-ups. Here are his whiff rates when looking at fastballs by an IVB range:

Staying in that 15-16" range with more regularity, or being back to sitting in the 95+ mph range (accounting for some loss of velocity, going from the Orioles' bullpen to the Brewers' rotation) would complete a pitch mix that could be deadly in 2025. If not, a bullpen role will likely be Hall's final landing spot.

Bryan Hudson's Recovery 
Bryan Hudson went from a bona fide, unhittable All-Star candidate in 2024 to missing the Brewers' playoff roster entirely. Used heavily early in the season, Hudson pitched multiple innings in most of his appearances but struggled to recover from outings the way the Brewers would have liked. 

Hudson went from averaging 91 mph on his fastball in June and 83 on his sweeper, down to 89 mph and 78 mph, respectively, in August. He also saw reduced movement profiles on both of his main pitches, creating a problem. Despite showing good surface results, Hudson was approaching the type of metrics that didn't bode well for him and he couldn't recover fully even after significant layoffs in Nashville. A key question will be whether or not Hudson has managed to rediscover the life on his pitches from the first half of last season, and be alert to any indications as we move through spring training as to how the Brewers intend to deploy him differently this season.

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Have you got any arms you're curious about as pitchers and catchers turn up in Arizona? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!

As always, thanks to Thomas Nestico for the access to some truly brilliant graphics and models!

 

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ATTENTION AP REPORTS DL HALL HAS INJURED HIMSELF AGAIN ALREADY!   

On 2/10/2025 at 9:22 PM, Joseph Zarr said:

Not going to lie, I feel like this article (albeit, an entirely different article) 'should' be titled: "Why we need to pay close attention to 99% of the Brewers 40-Man Pitching Staff this Spring"...Just sayin'. I look at the current staff and I have questions or curiosities about every single pitcher not named Freddy Peralta...who I still have questions about. 

If there ever was a time for blind faith in 'The Lab' that time is now.

Why is the faith blind?  We have the best catcher in baseball, We have the best pitching coach in baseball, We have a pitching centric Manager and we have more talent coming into 2025 ready for Big League than i can remember.    

I have no doubts about Tobias Myers, Tobias Myers showed he has Big League chew all day and will be one of our pitchers for at least  5 or 6 more seasons here.    Fear nothing and do nothing but support this kid! He has what it takes and we should be behind him all the way.    I have  no doubts about Tobias .   

Freddy I have doubts .. Like major glairing doubts but given he is now playing for his bigtime contract money his 2025 could be the best in his career if he corrects all his mechanical issues.    Freddy looked like a guy about to come apart in 2024 and had the worse season I have seen him have in years.    He got hit a bunch last season and every start was a struggle.   

Aaron Civale ..No questions here.  He is Aaron Civale .  he will never win awards but he will eat up 6 innings each game and probably not get the team in trouble while he does it.  

You have questions about Nestor Cortez ?  You would be the only one!  Nester is NASTY and his pitches are still the kind to sit batters down!   He instantly is the best pitcher on the team who gives this team a real shot at pennant play.   No questions with Nester .  I still cannot figure out why Brewers fans are not more excited for getting this pitcher here even if it is only for 2025?   Nester gives the Brewers a Superstar pitcher who has playoff experience with more than enough to carry this entire unit through the 25' season.      Nester was a huge pick up this offseason and everyone is pretending it's not a big deal.  Nester is a big deal here.   I love that he is part of the our group this season and you will too when you see him in Blue.   He wins  20 games for us this season or more .   

As for #5 you can question.   Not on a talent level though because the Brewers have more to offer starting pitching in 2025 than maybe any other Spring.   Henderson has super high upside if he adds another pitch to his mix we have the long term replacement for Freddy and the 2026 pitching flip flop that is coming.    I do not know if he will be great but he has the tools.   Lucas Patrick looks like the Tobias Myers of 2025.   I think when he steps onto an MLB mound he will not be leaving anytime soon.   His lack of hype surprises me as he has a skillset that looks to play here.   He looks like he can outpitch Colin Rea.  Time will tell but between these two guys I believe they have their other pitcher already here on lockdown.   Even if Civale end up with troubles I think there is more than enough talent here to replace the entire rotation and still keep the games ahead of themselves.     I still am holding out hope Jacob starts the 2025 season with his pants on fire and forces his way into the 2025 rotation but not starting on the 40 man says he will probably be in AAA through 2025. The Brewers like to bring pitching up after they have a full season on AAA mounds.   Mis could push that by having a strong spring with low walk ratios.  His stuff is so good that only Roki Sasaki and Paul Skenes have better stuff than him starting the 2025 season.  IF Jacob Mis comes into Spring Training with a mission he could put Milwaukee on the map and give them a weapon they have not ever had in the starting rotation .    Mis can be the best pitcher in baseball upon maturation.    He was not close to being that good in 24' but he also was not that far away from it.   He would have a bad game here and there as most 21 year old pitchers do but most of the time he is not hitable .      If he limits his bad outings in 2025 the Brewers may be in a place to brag .    

As for the bullpen .  The Brewers have the best bullpen prospect in baseball in Craig Yoho and he is not even on the 40 man this Spring.  That is how good the bullpen is for this Crew.   MeGill was proven last season to have the closer genes.  The Brewers did not improve when Williams came back with closing games and even got a bit worse with Devin closing over MeGill.    MeGill says he has a sweeper this year too and if it moves like his Curve the Brewers will sport the best closer in baseball in 2025 with him in that position.   MeGill is one of this teams true weapons and he get next to no credit for it.   

Jared Koenig is still awesome, So is Aaron Ashby, and Hudson was still a sub 2 ERA guy even when he was demoted to AAA last season so I expect bigger things from him in 2025.      Nick Mears was a STOLEN superstar who got the best gift of his career with that trade last season.   Putting Mears in this coaching situation puts him in a place that could make him into a weapon that no one will be able to hit.   Nick Mears is one of the sneaky best trades of the previous season and he offers us more upside than anyone in the bullpen.    Mears can be very special.   

Payamps and Elvis both are solid bullpen guys who on other rosters would be looked at as Stars.  While here they are kind forgotten pieces who make the bullpen go.   I do not see them going backwards and will ensure our pen has right hands who bring the stank. 

Questions are for the losers out there. We have a lot of good options here as pitching is our thing so my questions are not out of the rotation or the pen.     I think Chris Hook has made it so there are no real questions to ask much from our pitchers.   He won't let this group fail and that is all I need to know.  

2 hours ago, jesusoftheapes said:

ATTENTION AP REPORTS DL HALL HAS INJURED HIMSELF AGAIN ALREADY!   

Yes he has. https://www.reuters.com/sports/brewers-shut-down-lhp-dl-hall-lat-strain-several-weeks-2025-02-12/