I remember earlier in the season, some of the discussion about Greinke was that he wasn't really as good as his '09 season, & that he was more likely a mid-3's ERA talent. What I wanted to add here is that the really top SP talents in the league appear to be guys whose ERAs tend to be under 4 year in & year out, & then occasionally dip waaaaay down into the filth-o-sphere. Greinke certainly looks to fit that bill, & isn't alone in perhaps being labeled as "not really that good". Here are some off-the-top-of-my-head examples... Career ERA Lowest Season Highest Season #1 3.52 2.29 4.84 #2 3.78 2.24 6.26 #3 3.80 2.50 5.01 #4 3.47 2.27 4.11 #5 3.81 2.16 5.80I used a minimum of 150 IP for citing single seasons Player 1 Player 2 Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 And to tie Gallardo in as well, his career so far certainly has the look of an elite SP's, from year to year. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see that sub-3 ERA season from him in the very near future. If the Brewers can lock up Greinke to a long-term contract, they'll be in a position to contend for a long time. EDIT: TL;DR -- Greinke & Gallardo both profile, statistically & physically, as legit #1-type SPs. And there was much rejoicing. FIP is a bad stat. It's not a bad stat, it's only a 'bad stat' if it's being used, standalone, to show a pitcher's total & ultimate worth. FIP is a stat that's exactly what its name says it is. I think you said it best, FVBF, with "I have no problem looking at just about any stat, they're all helpful in context." You can't look at any one stat & say 'this is why pitcher X is the best'. Imo you have to evaluate both talent & production, just like when discussing MiLB prospects.