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TooLiveBrew

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Everything posted by TooLiveBrew

  1. TooLiveBrew
    Really they only have to think that there is a decent chance that they could be better than two of those teams, since the wild card is going to come from the east just about every year. That's a good point.
  2. TooLiveBrew
    I am frustrated with Melvin in that he hasn't been able to take his teams to the next level historically. I think almost all of us can agree on this. However, how many GMs have been able to take their teams (esp. mid-/smaller markets) to the 'next level'? It's just not an easy thing to do, and I definitely understand the organization's goal should not be mediocrity. I tend to waver back and forth as to whether or not I think Melvin is the guy the Brewers should keep for the long-term. I also think many posters here (myself included at times) take for granted -- almost to a ridiculous extent -- just how hard it is to build a consistent contender out of a mid-market team. I may be in the minority, but I think Melvin "gets" how to do that much more so now than he did previously with the organization. At this point, I think I'd like to see what the team's more recently-acquired arms (guys like Odorizzi, Peralta, Heckathorn, Rivas, Jeffress, etc.) can do before I'm ready to drop the hammer on Melvin. Additionally, he's not getting fired anytime soon if Mark A's comments are to be believed, so in that case I want to see what Melvin can find for Fielder.
  3. TooLiveBrew
    Loved to see Hoffman used in the 3-run save opportunity tonight. Kudos to Macha, even though I'm pretty sure it was probably about giving Axford some rest. It was great to see the fans get so electric & support Trevor, too.
  4. TooLiveBrew
    Good to see the injured Edmonds back out there again tonight.
  5. TooLiveBrew
    http://images.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/_photos/2004-03-17-depodesta-inside.jpg http://www.cinemablend.com/images/news_img/11981/11981.jpg I totally see it.
  6. TooLiveBrew
    The Orioles would have to think they'd be better than NYY, BOS, and TB next season for them to be realistic players on Fielder. Prince isn't going to sign an extension, he's going to FA, so they'd only get him for '11.
  7. TooLiveBrew
    Are you saying the Twins getting a new park is affecting overall MLB attendance numbers from last season? I'm don't follow. That's the only new MLB stadium this season that I'm aware of.
  8. TooLiveBrew
    A player who gets high ratings on defensive metrics but who I see often make really bad mistakes is Colby Rasmus. If he is being judged by some inexperienced young person who is also a Cards fan or who is "in to" the Fangraphs crowd where he is adored, the results may be worthless. How many games of the Cardinals' do you watch?
  9. TooLiveBrew
    Why the Diego nickname for Edmonds?
  10. TooLiveBrew
    The AL's avg. runs/game from '01 to '10 so far: 4.9, 4.8, 4.9, 5.0, 4.8, 5.0, 4.9, 4.8, 4.8, 4.5. I don't think it's anything more than just an abberation.
  11. TooLiveBrew
    Watch the replay again. Prior to bouncing over the bag, the ball bounced on the foul line. After passing over the bag, the ball bounced even further away from the line in the field of play. The ball didn't bounce, suddenly curve around the bag, and then land more fair on the next bounce than it was on the previous bounce. If anything, off a RH batter's bat, the ball could have had spin taking the ball towards foul territory, not fair territory (obv. not in this case though).
  12. TooLiveBrew
    According to Macha, Cain hasn't even proven himself at AAA yet. I'd bet he'll be roughly the last bat off the bench; hope I'm wrong.
  13. TooLiveBrew
    Thanks Topper, I appreciate that link. You have perfectly summed up what in my view is the failure of Macha (and to a lesser extent Melvin) to produce a winning team- and that is an unwillingness to take risks. Macha is far too conservative for my tastes, and would be better suited for a pushbutton type team, one like... I don't know, one with Hudson, Mulder and Zito as your 1,2 and 3 starters. Who on the team would you run more as manager, though? I summed up my thoughts on this earlier in the thread, and really the only candidate I could come up with was Escobar. In that case it'd likely be a difference of maybe 5-10 more SBs, and roughly 3-6 more outs on the basepaths (mostly in front of the pitcher's spot in the lineup, no less)
  14. TooLiveBrew
    How do you possibly hurt yourself when you're successful gaining an extra base 2 out of every 3 times? I will agree that some of the "extra" outs create do hurt. I know no threshold would be iron-clad. Just asking about the 'accepted' discuss-able threshold. As for the 2/3 rate, I think of it this way -- you only get 27 outs in a game. Is advancing one base worth the 33% chance that you'll lose one of those 27 outs? When a team slugs the ball as well as the Brewers (not just HRs, mind you), I'm not sure that it's worth the risk. Inevitably, you have to approach baserunning aggressively but still smartly & sensibly. But Macha just basically ignores it as an option altogether. The first sentence I agree with wholeheartedly. The second sentence, I'm not sure. It's not like the Brewers were burning up the basepaths under Yost. I think Melvin's approach is one that views the risk involved with making outs on the basepaths as > the reward of stealing more bases.
  15. TooLiveBrew
    Where are you getting 66%? I definitely remembered the threshold being higher than that. Not that I can provide a link off-hand... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  16. TooLiveBrew
    If we want to part with Lawrie plus Odorizzi, probably plus more, I think we could get him. It's just whether or not it'd be worth the price for two seasons of Grienke (he'll be a FA in 2013)
  17. TooLiveBrew
    However I would point to Tampa Bay and the White Sox as 2 teams who are in the playoff race in part specifically because of how well they steal bases and utilize speed on the bases (along with pitching and defense of course) I think I can agree on Tampa, but I can't on Chicago. Tampa's success rate is a stellar ~80%, while the ChiSox have actually hurt themselves overall more than helped so far, at ~67%. Overall, the main reason both of those teams are in the playoff race is their strong pitching. The thing that I think gets lost in SB discussions is that attempting to steal bases more frequently does not = stealing bases more frequently. You have to have very, very good basestealers (like the Rays do) to make lots of basestealing attempts worthwhile. If you're going to get caught once every three times like the ChiSox so far this season, you're better off not running at all.
  18. TooLiveBrew
    However, just because leading the league in SB will not cause you to lead the league in runs does not mean they will never cause you gain some runs Of course successful stolen bases will help to score more runs. The problem, to me, is that getting caught stealing does far more harm than a successful SB does good. Iirc 75%-ish is the minimum threshold that makes stealing bases an acceptable risk, right? Wouldn't that mean that if you steal at a 75% rate that you're just barely not hurting yourself overall? If that's the case, you'd have to steal at a much better rate to really have it make a noticeable impact. Who on the team really should be running more? Hart has lost speed from when he first entered the league, Braun runs at about the right frequency imo, Gomez has been an efficient basestealer this season but has only gotten on base 29% of the time, and Weeks has (imo) both lost some speed and I think Ennder's point on his health factors in. That leaves Escobar, who also has done poorly in the OBP department, and most often has been in front of the pitcher in chances to steal. Clearly getting thrown out is bad, but getting thrown out and then having your pitcher lead off the next inning is really indefensible. And Escobar hasn't been too efficient stealing bases this season, to boot. Getting caught stealing is a really, really bad way to make an out. Add in the point Baldkin underscores, that this team's strength is slugging, and it really isn't a bad thing that the Brewers don't steal more bases.
  19. TooLiveBrew
    I don't swear by getting tap beer or always pouring my beer into a glass. But I also don't look down my nose at people that want to taste beer in the manner in which it was intended to be.
  20. TooLiveBrew
    Yeah, the part about having to pour your beer in a glass is where RockCo's 'I am a man's man's drinker' shtick really lost me. You pour a beer in a glass because that's how good beer is supposed to be tasted.
  21. TooLiveBrew
    The whole egg in a nutshell imo is that SBs really don't do much in terms of a team's overall ability to score runs. The fans find them thrilling, and therefore think of them as more valuable than they really are. Not making outs on the basepaths is far more valuable than stealing bases. The top three basestealing teams in the NL (NYM, SDP, & WSN) rank 13th, 11th, and 14th in the NL in runs/game. The top five in the AL (TB, CHW, SEA, OAK, TEX) rank 4th, 7th, 14th, 11th, and 3rd in the AL in runs/game. There is really little to no correlation between stolen bases and runs, let alone stolen bases and wins. If you want a good offense, you want to get on base & slug the ball well. Not surprisingly, the top offenses in the league in runs/game have very good team OPS rates. The top 4 offenses in the NL (runs/game) rank 1st, 2nd, 6th, & 3rd in OPS. The top 4 in the AL rank 2nd, 1st, 5th, and 8th in OPS. I should note the samples/cutoffs I chose in team offensive rankings were where there were clear dropoffs btw. one team & the next.
  22. TooLiveBrew
  23. TooLiveBrew
    Fielder's been getting hit a lot more than "a little more than normal". His career avg. entering this season was roughly one HBP per 58 PAs. This season it has been roughly one per 27 PAs. That's a drastic increase. While I'm not certain that it's been anything more than random variance, it's quite possible that (for whatever reason) Prince has been targeted as a guy to bean by numerous MLB teams this season.
  24. TooLiveBrew
    Mark Cuban would be a great MLB owner. I'm pretty sure that he would be against revenue sharing as well He's a successful owner in a league with lots of economic parity, not sure why you would assume this.
  25. TooLiveBrew
    I'm not sure why... it tastes like flat swill to me. But, it's the trendy thing I guess. It's not that it's trendy, it's that it's a decent beer, produced locally. Not sure why you need to rail about its femininity, that's just strange. Not my kind of beer but I would never claim some air of condescension to mock people who like it. Baldkin described perfectly why it's so popular. I like the taste of beer, and I don't dislike Spotted Cow. I just don't tend to drink/enjoy wheat beers.
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