TooLiveBrew

I'm not necessarily sold that Macha is managing for his job. I do think there could be something to him preferring veterans. The sad thing to me is that I think Macha sees a connection between those two.

That's actually a case of Melvin parting ways with a soft-tosser whose stuff isn't that great... something he supposedly isn't able to do.

How the Guillen contract rates as worse than the Soriano contract is beyond me, especially since he seems to be evaluating the contracts largely on years remaining. I see that part of the criteria is production during the whole contract, but it's not too hard to project Soriano for pretty bad numbers the rest of the way. Very strange, rambling post from Posnanski imo.

So first when he wasn't hitting under Yost, it was because he was batting 8th, & not 2nd... then under Macha he wasn't hitting because he wasn't getting enough time off -- but he didn't have the guts to tell Macha so... and now he's getting jobbed by getting (deservedly) sent to AAA & being kept under team control for another season so the Brewers don't get jack squat for him? Sorry J.J., the excuses have gotten old. You want to be on a big-league roster? Play your way back on. When you haven't even been able to outhit Escobar, you just have no business complaining & running your mouth. The entitlement some people feel is just beyond me. This nonsense is just going to give the team a bad rap with players around the league. Just a year ago, everyone wanted to run Weeks out of town as well. Amazing how two hot months changes people's perspectives. Hardy seems to be the new target. No, everyone didn't. I know there were many people here who kept saying it would be foolish to give up on Weeks. It's too bad his injury derailed what was an awesome season. As for Hardy, I really don't see how anyone can stand up for the guy at this point. To hear him tell it, he was just a model citizen & how dare the big, bad, mean Brewers treat him like anything less than the golden boy he is! EDIT: (& I'd like to add that I think I've been a big supporter of Hardy over the years on this forum -- from defending him against the cries that he was injury prone & would never amount to anything, to earlier this season when I thought his offensive WOAHs had to be luck-related)

Definitely get it. I believe the Premium package also includes home & away radio broadcasts, but I don't have it personally (we have E.I.). A friend of mine has MLB.TV Premium, and he swears by it. I will probably get that instead of E.I. in the future.

Your mocking of stats really makes me wonder how much you actually care to understand this at all.

I've never put a lot of stock in the WAR calculations. Pujols is only 6.8 WAR and is the best player in the game. Jason Kendall is 1.0 WAR, how he is even positive is amazing. WAR is adjusted for position, which would explain both of these cases.

This team could have went out and got an Ibanez to man right and traded one of the above for depth that is sorely lacking. I think it was a sign of good judgment by Melvin to not sign him to a deal that will pay him $11.5M for his age 38 & 39 seasons, and that doesn't even factor in how much of his value he negates by being a horrible fielder. Some people who even agree that Mike Cameron is a great fit in CF are reluctant to bring him back for 2010 -- he's younger, and plays far better defense at a premium spot, and would likely cost a similar amount. Imo you can't just pick a FA that's had a good year & use that as a critique against Melvin -- there has to be context. The Brewers don't have the kind of payroll flexibility to sustain that kind of money on an old player, but the Phillies do. The problem with this organization right now is that there is no pitching at AA or above. If you are willing to wait for 2010, that will no longer be true. I think the argument could be made that there is good pitching at AA & above right now. Most of it is not to AA yet. However, Butler has had a good season & depending who you ask, so has Mike Jones. Butler had the oblique injury but will get some more time in the AFL, so it's hard for me to feel down about his season/development just yet.

Does it use salaries accepted by teams whose player like Braun who signs a long term contract? Those are the three paragraphs that precede what I quoted initially. Please read the article.

I remember Robert R was a big proponent of adding Jackson last offseason, and iirc he recently posted on that himself.

If what you say above is true, then the stat should only be used to compare players to one another, which basically means the "monetary" attachtment to the stat is meaningless in regard to real-life payscales. The stat uses real-world data, including what the average payment for a win is by MLB teams. If you don't like it, that's fine, but there seems to be a fundamental disconnect here. To me, it's pretty clear that just because someone is worth $X but gets $Y, that doesn't make the contribution that led to the amount of $X any less valuable... nor does it make the dollar value placed on X any less relevant. As best as I can brain this, the statement 'Player A was worth $X' is a shortened way of stating, 'Based upon the way MLB clubs spend their money, along with the statistical representation that 10 runs scored/saved is equivalent to 1 win, Player A's production was worth $X'. That's how I understand WAR, but I kinda get the feeling that what little I know about it isn't going to make its critics relent, and that others could probably provide more persuasive arguments. Not that that will change anyone's mind either... This link is the Fangraphs explanation of the dollar value: I hope anyone frustrated with the dollar values will take the time to read the article in full, and not just this snippet. Ennder's post, IMO, clearly tried to do exactly what you said not to do, which was use the WAR$ to justify Hardy's actual salary What I took it to mean was that $4.65M was not a rip-off. I think that is likely true.

Here's a link to an article from the NY Times on the helmet. Unfortunately, it doesn't really answer any of TheCrew's specific questions. "Major league players do not play with a helmet that meets any standards," he said. "It's remarkable to me. Once the earflap is removed, it can't be certified." -- David Halstead, Technical Director (National Operating Committee on Standards for Athletic Equipment)

Congrats!

Using simple WAR Hardy was worth 6.5M so far this season because of his defense. He was worth 22.2M last year. From Ennder's post #443... This was in response to a statement that Mark A. was the one that 'got screwed' because he paid Hardy $4.65M this season. I think that you have to be looking for any absolutism to see it. Imo it's just not there. The way I read it, Ennder merely pointed out that even with this struggling season, it's not cut & dried that Hardy's salary was a total ripoff. If anything, it's interesting just to see how much value a good defensive shortstop has.

This is the same argument I was having with TLB on the minor league forum. Somehow metrics end up being used as an absolute measure of right and wrong, when in truth they are just an another opinion, formed through a complex mathematical equation that cannot be proven true. For the record, I never claimed it to be an absolute measure. I think WAR is a useful metric because it evaluates players in a vacuum. And, while the statement that 'No one's going to pay Hardy $22M for one year' is basically true, I think that misses the point of WAR. Imho it's best utilized to provide a concept of the value of production relative to a player's peers, just like almost any 'advanced' stat. Perhaps this is unnecessary, but for a simple breakdown of what WAR 'means', it describes player value as it contributes to wins -- iirc a win is represented statistically as 10 runs. So Player X saves _y_ runs on defense, his D is calculated to be worth _z_ wins above replacement... player X adds _y_ runs on offense, his O is worth _z_ wins above replacement. That's incredibly crude & probably does a disservice to the statistical work done to develop these stats, but I think that's a decent way to understand what it means. Imo as long as people understand that the point isn't necessarily to determine what players should or will be paid, I think WAR is a good metric to use. Yes, and I agree. And I think the emphasis is that it could turn out to be really, really good for him. I understand how he might not feel that way at the moment, but this poor season came at a really bad time for him if he'd had just one more year of salary control remaining. If he can 'prove' himself for two consecutive years before hitting FA, I doubt any potential suitors would have reservations about signing him.

Yeah, that SF-COL game was fun to watch. Made me really miss last season http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

"As long as they understand that we waited a long time for the player," Melvin said. "We carried certain young players -- I won't name them -- when they weren't performing earlier in their careers to help develop them. There are some players who gained some early service time when they didn't perform at this level." The bolded part made me laugh. While I agree with end that Hardy was rushed a bit, what a funny comment from Melvin. 'I won't name JJ, er, them'... (and yes I realize he was probably referring to Weeks as well)

Errors are not a good way to evaluate players, esp. OF. That brutal play BCin04 referenced in the Pirates game? Not an error. OF are almost never charged with errors. Braun is a bad OF because he still doesn't get good reads on that ball. He takes poor routes in far too many instances to even be considered average.

His three before that one in NY were bad, too, as were two of his other (first) four starts. Not that he should have been expected to be lights-out or anything, but it wasn't just that last start against the Yanks.

Smoltz went 6 innings with one BB & 6 K's on Friday in St. Louis against the Nationals (5th in NL in R/G). He surrendered just one run on four hits & threw 93 pitches. At this point, I'd kinda be surprised if he wasn't 'back', & I had as much doubt as anyone after that horrific outing at Yankee Stadium. Sounds like he might have just been tipping his pitches, as crazy as that seems.

Here's a short article by Chris O'Leary on what he dislikes about Kennedy's mechanics. Kennedy had surgery this season to remove an aneurysm from beneath his right biceps, and the Arizona Fall League will be his first pitching action since early May. He only threw 22-ish IP this season at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (& had good results in that short time), so I'm not sure he could be counted on for a full season. His career high for IP is 165.1 (2007), and he threw only 116.2 IP in 2008. Kennedy is also going to pitch in the Puerto Rican winter league, and I think the Yankees might not necessarily view him as blocked. The offseason will be huge, both in terms of Kennedy's own progression, but also whether or not Pettitte retires. If he does retire & Kennedy is able to return to health, I doubt Kennedy will be blocked anymore.

I've suggested Andrew Miller before. Very good "buy low" candidate. I thought I've read that a big concern with Miller has been his mechanics. The best example I could find is this drivelinemechanics.com article. You have to scroll down to appx. the halfway point down the page to see the mechanics breakdown. It sounds like, unless the Brewers are willing to stash Miller in AAA in the hopes they can clean up his mechanics & help him develop a changeup, Miller would be a pretty considerable risk. However, this article was from 2008, so if anyone has some more recent info on Miller, I'd sure appreciate it.

3TO DL linkage I really hope this isn't the end of Russell's 2009.

I don't know if there's anything directly quoting Lowe on wanting to play on the East Coast, but here's what I could find... There are several other instances of this same type of statement being repeated, so there wouldn't be much point in me just posting the same thing again & again.

Who said that? Melvin actually said in a recent interview he probably should've pursued Lowe harder. There's no indication that he didn't want to play here. You're right trwi, and my apologies for getting my head mixed up. The guy that 'didn't want to pitch' somewhere was for sure Randy Johnson, though I'm pretty sure Lowe made a comment about wanting to go back & pitch on the East Coast. I'll try to find it. You're right that I'm making a generalized statement about the status of our current major league roster. Just because it's rather generalized though doesn't really make it untrue. And just because it's not untrue doesn't mean it's a fair critique -- it's too general. That's my point about 'find some examples'. What you're calling for happens very, very little, and really has next to nothing to do with who exactly is the GM. If that weren't true, there would be numerous examples to cite. This, to me, is akin to 'Playoff teams don't do [event X]'. Sorry if you don't like my lack of specifics, but in the end some teams have found a way and Melvin has not. It's not so much your lack of specifics. It's the lack of quantity of tangible examples. You keep talking about these "teams", yet outside of DET with Edwin Jackson & ATL with Javy Vazquez, you don't have any others. I understand being frustrated, but without keeping things in perspective I think you can go overboard with unrealistic expectations.