TooLiveBrew

Clint Hurtle is the ASG manager and he's not the "clog the bases" guy. That's Volquez's regular manager, Dusty Baker. Ah, but Hurdle isn't far off -- this is the man who bats Willy Taveras & his .299 OBP leadoff! WILLY FAST! WILLY BAT LEADOFF! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

For a batter, it's more a sign of how lucky or unlucky he's been, since 'hittin' them where they ain't' can only be controlled so much. .300 is regarded as being the approximated median. It's important to check out players' BABIP over their careers, though -- some guys do tend to keep it higher than others. I noticed yesterday that both Braunie & Prince are right near .300 BABIP. Stat heads would say it's inevitable that the first player will see his BA drop, the second will see his BA rise, and the third is about where he will stay Nice explanation of the 'practical application' -- I think the general sense is right-on, but I'm no stat expert.

Some even go as far to say that it's understood that once Cox leaves Atlanta Yost will be the manager. I've also heard that the Braves manager position is more or less Yost's dream job They're welcome to him! I'd guess there's a similar 'He was on the '82 Brewers!' effect in play for Braves fans. I know one that feels Yost is a solid manager... largely because he doesn't follow the Crew closely. Owbc said it best: "From an outsider's perspective, Yost has helped turn the 'pathetic' Brewers into a perennial contender--and he was clearly well-liked in Atlanta as a coach." This is basically what my buddy would tell me.

Hurdle appears to be an old-school type manager and, I would guess, would skipper the All-Star game in that "old-boys" kind of way. Yeah, if I had to guess, this is how I'd guess, too. Hurdle is the ultimate 'old boy's club' guy. I'd bet on Webb/Haren, personally. Hurdle sees them more frequently anyway, and you know that Clint knows it cuz he seen it! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

That's usually a good debate. I don't know why personally, but it's viewed as not fitting the definition of BABIP, as in, it's not considered "in play". IIRC there's a thread on this in the Stats forum. EDIT: Yep, the BABIP thread. Here's a response in the thread from logan3825 -- "It is a measure of what a defense did behind the pitcher. A defense, except on rare occasions, can not do anything about HR."

Brown was Oakland's 5th pick overall. They had 7 first round picks because the lost 3 Type A players I love being way off-base! Hooray! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/embarassed.gif Thanks for clearing up the misconception(s), Robin. Certainly makes the pick or 'reach' for Brown a lot more understandable. What a haul of draft picks for Oakland that year.

Good points JB & FtJ. I think the difference-maker is going to be which true outcome Russ leans on more now... the BB or the K. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Given his approach to this point, I think pitchers being more careful to Russ is going to result in a bump to his OBP/BBs, even though the K's will likely rise too. I certainly don't think he should be expected to hit near .300 for very long, but I also don't think that at this point anything he's done is all that fluky (save the HRs/SLG of .800). He's not likely to continue to smash one out every 8.2 PA, but I definitely think the 'easier' swing, combined with his patience at the plate, is a legit alteration -- as opposed to a fluky aberration.

we just have to find a way to get that talent out. Just let him play. He's had horrid luck all season long. Last night was the first game I can remember where the line drives that he ripped actually didn't get hit right at fielders... and lo & behold, he had a huge game. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif The way I look at it is that for Weeks, it is just a matter of having those extra singles fall in for him. If he can get his average this season to his career number, he'll be above average. And if he can improve it to the .260-.270 range... watch out. That is where the Rickey Henderson comparisons would start. Very well-said. I just don't think it's fair to say 'Well, looks like he won't go down as one of the greatest hitters ever' (meaning Aaron, Henderson, Morgan, etc.). First off, he's far too young to assume that we 'know' what we have yet. And secondly, it's just unrealistic in general to establish that kind of stratosphere as the expectations of a ballplayer. One thing that I tend to forget about Rickie, too, is that not only does he get on base very well, but once he's there, he's the best base-stealing threat the Brewers have. Heck, he's arguably the best in terms of SB efficiency the franchise has ever had. He's an offensive dream-player in this era -- good power, good OBP, and elite base-stealing ability. The argument oftentimes comes down to OBP v. speed/SB, and Rickie provides both. Now about that defense...

#1 overall pick? He was the 35th player selected in the draft. No, #1 overall for the A's is what I meant -- he's listed as having been a 1st Rd. pick (must have been supplemental round), and I didn't do my due diligence... and worded it clumsily to boot! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

But from what I've seen since he got here is he can face a RH or two without getting killed by them and get through an inning instead of having to get pulled and use two relievers for one inning. It may be a small difference and maybe I'm reading too much into small samples but I'm not overly worried if he faces a couple RH in a close game. They just don't hit him hard. But a career SLGA of .451 isn't strong. In other words, RH do hit him pretty hard. I agree with your general point (Shouse facing a righty btw. two lefties or a couple righties in an inning here and there isn't bad), just not how you arrive at it (Shouse's SLGA v. RH is not bad... bc imho it is).

They're quite similar (imo) in terms of approach. To this point, Corey's been the more disciplined batter, I think. He just doesn't chase quite as wildly as Braun. That said, it's been nice to see Ryan take a better approach at the plate recently. I firmly believe that Braun will be a perennial > 50-60 BBs kind of player as he 'grows up' a bit.

We can draw a lot better conclusions from Endaround's examples of how bad he is over the last three years with a whopping 17.1 IP in 06 vs RH, 24 IP in 07 and 10.2 this year. I think that WHIP & OBPA are far more important than 12 HR over 129 IP -- not a very good rate, but not horrid. Still just too few IP to tell anything from the counting stats, which is why I (personally) turn to the OBPA to see how good a pitcher has been in terms of getting batters out. To be objective -- Shouse's career line v. RHP is .305/.390/.451/.841. That's not just 'not great' -- that's bad, especially the high OBP. The high OBP most certainly is making it a lot easier for runners to score, as is the SLGA. His line against lefties, on the other hand, is disgustingly good (.212/.266/.328/.594). A classic LOOGY or lefty-specialist. I don't think Brian is doing anything much to limit how hard he's hit by RH batters aside from just not facing them all that often. The numbers end listed from '06-'08 are basically right in line with career norms, except that we should reasonably expect that SLGA v. RH to rise the more Shouse faces righties.

No it doesn't. It tells you he allows them to get to first more often than we'd like but that's about it. His OPS isn't that bad and he doesn't allow many extra base hits. It doesn't say that he 'doesn't allow ____', it says that he 'hasn't allowed ____'. I think if we trust that Shouse is going to keep his SLGA v. RH that low, we're going to be disappointed. Probably somewhere in-between the 2006 & '07/'08 stats is where the 'true talent' level lies. Besides, end's point on Shouse was that he's not good (& hasn't been good) at getting RH batters out -- I think a .350+ OBPA does tell you a bit about that. The point wasn't that Shouse gets crushed by righties. Just my opinon, though. Fwiw, I watched a different MLB game this season (sorry, can't remember what team), and the color commentator was talking about that what makes a LOOGY like Shouse (Brian wasn't the announcer's example) effective is also what makes him vulnerable to righties. The term he used was a "one-plane slider"... meaning that the pitch's only break is left to right, with little to no vertical break. This action makes it very hard for LHB to keep their hands inside of the pitch & still make contact well with the bat; however, it also means the pitch glides right into the wheelhouse of most RHB. I know that's not exactly rocket science there, but it definitely helped clarify things a bit.

I think 'best available defensive metric' certainly doesn't = 'accurate defensive metric'. I'd expect you would hold yourself accountable for watching 'enough' games to be able to say that you think the ZR corellates with what you see around the league, too, if you want to hold someone accountable that is skeptical. Back to Braun, it seems pretty clear that he hasn't been a top-5 or 6 guy this season, but that's fine by me. I love watching a guy that doesn't have the hulking slugger's build (I'm thinking of Ortiz, Dunn, Burrell, etc.), but that is just raw as all-get out. (Branyan fits this bill for me, too, fwiw). I fully hope he will get voted to start the ASG, and that he can keep up his fantastic production in the second half of the season, too.

5-5 on this roadtrip would be pretty huge. Anything more than that I think you'd have to look at as the baseball gods smiling on the Brewers. Also of note is that June 27th is the first of 17 games in 17 days leading into the All-Star break. That's going to be a taxing stretch. 3 @ ATL **Off Day/Travel Day** 3 @ MIN 4 @ ARI (by my count, we'll only face Webb as opposed to both Webb & Haren unless Melvin re-shuffles their rotation) 3 v. PIT 4 v. COL 3 v. CIN Thankfully, we get a relatively easy homestand, but that's a rough stretch.

You don't get to see enough of other teams to really know that, do you? That's a circular argument -- how do you know, because ESPN told you? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I see enough games (have Extra Innings) that I can confidently say he's very likely not the 7th-best fielding LF in all of MLB. The one thing that GPA doesn't take into account is playing time. Runs Created does. That's fine -- RC backs up the statement that he's not top-6 as well. I cited GPA since it's regarded as being more accurate (albeit only slightly) than RC, iirc. In either event, the two are so close that it's hardly worth splitting hairs -- the only guy ahead of Braun that didn't have 'full-time' playing time was StL's Ryan Ludwick, and even he's pretty much a regular.

Brown is 28 and has 10 major league ABs. He doesn't have any significant future as a major leaguer. Was that in response to end pointing out that Brown's problems were personal, not performance? His minor-league numbers are pretty solid. Sure, not screaming "#1 draft pick!" But how many #1 picks flame out anyway without personal problems? I've always felt the Brown comment is made (this is not what I think you're going for, fwiw) because it sounds 'good' to say: "#1 overall pick that failed!" Take that, Billy Beane! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

When you add that Braun's defense is 7th in LF so that it's a positive and not a negative I don't trust any of the defensive metrics on their own (as in, individually). Braun has been average to above-avg. out there imo -- a lot better than most thought he'd be, but certainly not 7th best in all of MLB. We've seen all kinds of defensive studies to this point, and I don't think that any one has been much better than a starting point for accuracy. That's just my opinon, though. THT has Braun as the 7th-best NL OF (5th-best corner OF) in terms of RC, so I think different versions are being used. Just for another example, in GPA, THT has Braun ranked 8th of NL OF (6th-best corner OF). Now, that's just the NL. I just don't think saying that he's not a top-6 corner MLB OF this season is off-base. It's a narrow distinction anyway, so I don't understand why some are so offended when it's discussed. So what if he isn't top-6? He's been a joy to watch this year. To say that he's not a top-6 corner OF so far doesn't mean anyone thinks he's overrated or that anyone is selling him short. EDIT: For reference, Ryan is ranked 15th among MLB corner OF for GPA, per THT's stats page. That's about the 'tier' that I personally though he was in or near, but I just checked now. A top-20 corner OF just in terms of hitting. As kramnoj alluded to, Braun probably jumps a bit overall due to not being Manny or Dunn on defense.

Who are those "6" you are claiming? Braun walked a few times this weekend and made some defensive plays but it's still not good enough? I am guessing that even with Braun's first 162 game stats, which were higher than nearly every all-time great, there are those that still have to nitpick on this guy who signed a deal that was cheap compared to what other players are compensated. Sheesh... What about objectivity makes you upset? I don't think sayting that there are 6 corner OF better than Braun to this point is anything but fact right now. Yes, the difference is not big, but I just don't think that Ryan is at an elite status just yet. Cwolf is as big a Brewers & Braun fan as you'll find, but he's not blinded by homerism. The contract Braun signed doesn't have any bearing. It's an objective discussion, not 'ripping' him.

Thanks for linking that -- interesting study. WOW was Rickie rated out poorly at 2B! (-16.6) And I agree that J.J.'s overall & defensive ratings are shocking. I just can't put Hardy that low in terms of defense. Any system that has Hardy's D at a -11.7 & Theriot's at a 7.6 needs to be taken with a grain of salt. And no, that's not just me being biased. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Heck, Adam Everett only got a 6.3! So if Theriot's D > Everett's D, I want to see some more done to refine the study in terms of defense.

Well, it was condescending -- I thought he was making a crack about today's game. Sorry, TWR -- my fault. I didn't get the point you were making. To respond now that I know what you meant, the concerns I had while watching his last performance didn't have much (if anything) to do with the umps. I thought Seth's technique, or at least his control, was very off-&-on Saturday night. I don't recall seeing him overthrow a pitch & get squeezed, though I might just be remembering the 'worst' misses -- I can admit that. Fwiw, Phil Cuzzi was the HP ump on Saturday. From the THT "A Zone of Their Own" article, Cuzzi was rated out as having the 4th-largest strike zone amongst MLB umps (emphasis on the low strike). I think the study will have to be expanded over multiple seasons before it should be 'trusted' fully, but umpires, in working every 4th game or so behind the plate, certainly have a reasonable amount of data to look at in studying even just half of a season (the author, Jonathan Hale, notes that he used the 2007 data, and "about half of the pitches thrown in 2007 were tracked"). Below is the Pitch f/x data from Seth's last start. He did get squeezed on some obvious calls, but so did Baltimore's Daniel Cabrera... so it was consistently bad. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/ohwell.gif What I found interesting about this game chart was how closely the scatter seems to match the results from Josh Calk's Pitch f/x tool (had to use brooksbaseball.net's tool to get a single game) had for McClung in general. Another odd thing is that Cuzzi apparently wasn't digging the low strike for McClung, even though the low strike is supposed to be Cuzzi's call. Cabrera felt that squeeze, too. http://brooksbaseball.net/pfx/location.php?xml=http://gd2.mlb.com/components/game/mlb/year_2008/month_06/day_21/gid_2008_06_21_balmlb_milmlb_1//pbp/pitchers/425528.xml&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=1

Ok, something funny is going on with the graph I posted. I think it might be getting re-set to whatever someone views on the pitch f/x tool. In any event, use the pitch f/x tool I linked and run it for fastballs > 95 mph, and once again for fastballs < 96 mph. Frustrating that I can't figure out how to get the graphs to display correctly, but hopefully following the link isn't too big a hassle.

Good grief! Rickie's awful luck continues -- he hit two balls today very, very well... only to hit them into fielder's gloves. That play in RC by Markakis was nice. Welcome back, Rickie. I hope the luck evens itself out for you, and soon!

I can't get two separate graphs to display -- they show as the same graph. Take a look on Josh Calk's pitch f/x tool, though. Set the pitch type as "fastball", and the velocity as "< 96mph" I know there's probably too little data yet, but to me (an untrained observer), that second plot's results look 'better'/'tighter'

Don't get me wrong, I've fully enjoyed Seth's success so far. But his most recent start was the first time (obv. excluding the ATL shelling) that, during a game, I saw something that I found concerning. I agree that McClung looked to just tire out in the 7th, and that's no big deal imo. But I didn't think his control was all that hot on the whole (could be a case of the 'seems likes') Friday. Like I said, that's really the first time -- during a game -- that I felt that way. The other concerns I've had about Seth have been just general projection, not how he's looked.