thebruce44

Guys are still washed up by their late 20's. The difference is most of those washed up guys are still pitching in the big leagues (Zambrano, Kazmir etc) because they have contracts.. Back in the day, they were gone having been replaced by the next 20 or 21 year old. In the old days you didn't hear about all the kids blowing out their arms like you do today since players are scouted and watched from a younger age. Hitters, weightlifting, creatine, and scouting reports have developed to the point where 20 year olds outside of King Felix are not ready to pitch at the highest level. Development programs are in place for a reason.

By that logic we should be trading for Ted William's frozen corpse this offseason. Kazmir definitely isn't the same pitcher. However he does have a history with Peterson, who has been able to get him back on track before. He could be a reclamation project down the line, but not if we have to give anything up for him in a trade or if we have to pay that salary.

Don't forget a lot of teams get by with platoons as well. Sure, when we ran Matt Stairs out there it was less than sexy for multiple reasons, but it often gets the job done.

When UZR jives with the eye test that makes it fairly reliable in that situation. I am not saying UZR is always correct, or should be relied upon. But if you watch Hart play its painfully obvious he is a well below average defender who was seemingly average several years ago. Looking at his UZR data, there is a direct correlation, so it seems as though the conclusion that his defense is well below average is sound.

Ill second TooLiveBrew's post instead of continuing this debate here in the Hart thread. There is a lot more to Gamel's AAA line than what you are suggesting.

Also what is all of this new found hope/believe in Mat Gamel? He hasn't done anything to speak of since 2008 at AA ball. Counting on him to do anything at the major league level is wishful thinking at this point. The guy hasn't even showed he's "on pace" for the major leagues let alone a major leaguer. Well this is the wrong thread for this, but have you watched him play at all or looked at his stats in the last 2 years? Mat was leauge average in sporadic playing time as a rookie last year, and he is raking right now in AAA.

Its really not even close. Hart has created 48 runs above replacement the last 4 years while Werth has nearly doubled that with 83.6 runs. Then if you add in defense...

I think we were talking past each other. I took issue with it being the next Bill Hall contract because it was not the same situation as Hall. Hall was never very good as a prospect and only had a two year period where he did produce. He then got a contract and went back to being Bill Hall. Hart was always a good prospect who showed he could play well in the majors and then had a couple below average years. Even then those below average years were not nearly as bad as it was being out to be. Yea, I think we were arguing two different things. I was suggesting that it is a valid comparison as Hall and Hart had both had 2 years of success at the MLB level, Halls being much better than Harts. Hall had never failed at the MLB level while given playing time at one position while Hart had twice. Both signed contracts at their peaks (I am assuming this is Hart's peak but hope I am wrong). I can see you put a lot more stock into their minor league performances than I do, especially when it came to Hall who I felt was rushed while Hart was given extra time to mature. In the end, I think Hall was actually more deserving of his contract than Hart for the reasons I previously outlined in this post and my previous ones. While I am not going to say this is "the next Bill Hall contract" I wouldn't say that this is a very different situation at all and if someone is worried they have every right to be.

My math was just on a calculator so its gone. I agree with what you are saying so in the rest of my post that you didn't quote I said these were rough estimates. However, fly balls tend to turn into outs at a fairly high rate, so I converted them to outs and rounded in Harts favor figuring it was somewhat of a wash. Go ahead and add a couple points to everything if you like, its just an estimate but his OBP would still be very worrisome.

Unfortunately, no matter what team you root for, there will be fans who can only think 'what have you done for me LATELY?!' Only in this case, he was one of the worst outfielders in baseball for 2 of the last 3 years. Thats probably a slight exaggeration, but you get the point. Fans being upset wasn't exactly knee jerk.

So you missed the part where we were talking about their performance before giving them their contracts and ignoring hindsight then? You originally took issue with someone who was worried about Melvin handing out this contract since it was a similar situation to when Hall's contract was given out. I then provided data to show that up to the point of their contracts being signed Hall was the superior player so I think it is a valid concern. Are you no longer taking issue with this topic?

I disagree with looking at how low a they played before signing their contracts in this situation because Hart's lowest came as a full time featured player while Hall's came during sporatice playing time while he was young and developing at the major league level. Apples to oranges, though it makes Hall look worse and Hart look better if thats what you are after. And as end said, Hall was a pretty good infielder. I really think you are not looking at this objectively.

That only makes sense if you don't take into account position or defense. Hall OPSed .837 and .899 while playing above average defense at SS and CF before signing his contract. His WAR those 2 seasons was 3.7 and 5.0. Hart is one of the worst corner outfielders in baseball and has only OPSd better than Hall's best this season. His best WAR came 3 years ago (4.3) before his offense and defense started to regress sharply. This season he will probably WAR around 3.4 to 3.5. Looking at it objectively and without hindsight, Hall may have actually been the better signing.

As Toolivebrew said, his season is fluky based on his HR/FB rate being unsubstainable. BABIP doesn't tell the whole story. He is a guy who typically only carries an OBP .050 higher than his BA. This year he is batting around .290 so his OBP is up to .345. His SLG is increadable right now, but as I said mostly based on so many of his flys landing over the fence instead of in a glove. If you normalize his HR rate to his career average, he would be batting around .265, OPSing .320, have 16 HRs, be SLGing .485, and OPSing .805. Thats a definite improvement over the last few seasons, but with his defense still a below average RFer. Of course, this is just a rough calculations and a lot more goes into it than that. I am not in any way saying he has played to the level above, just that a couple of fly balls carrying can really change things up. Now maybe he continues to carry a high HR/FB rate though out the rest of his career (probably not this high but maybe higher than 12%). Players since the steroid era don't really seem to jump up in power this much though after poor performance in the 2 previous seasons.

Which is quite likely to drastically skyrocket the rest of the way. Guys don't switch on & off being clutch, it's just small samples. It's been around .170 all season. It's now 129 plate appearances. Want to talk OPS? Okay, his OPS with RISP is .619. Want a larger sample of ineptitude? He's had 231 plate appearances with a total of 298 men on base. He's driven in exactly 22 of the 298 (7.3%). That's the worst ratio of any regular in all of baseball including singles hitters. Just curious why you think this is significant JohnBriggs? Do you think he is a different player with RISP? Is he nervous, tenses up? I am not trying to patronize you or anything of the sort, I am just trying to understand why some people find this significant and how they justify it.

Fielder isn't a better defensive player. He just plays an easier defensive position. What would Fielder's UZR be if he played right field? Yes, I agree with that. In terms of his peers at his position though Hart is brutal both from my observations and according to the stats. As I said before though, I probably think Hart is worse than he really is on defense.

I know a lot of posters on here are those that think recently created "player value stats" such as WOBA, are the "be all and end all" of stats. Sorry, but there is no one stat, even those that purport to define a players value that accurately defines a players contribution to a team for the simple reason that it's impossible to create an all in one formula for every player in every role. The role of a leadoff hitter is vastly different than a cleanup hitter. Does anyone who has watched the Brewers this year honestly think that Fielder has contributed more offensively than Corey Hart? Where in those stats do they take into account going from 1st to 3rd on a single or scoring from 2nd on a base hit, or hitting in the clutch? To think he has, you have to believe in stats such as WOBA with a fervor that is religious in nature and that's my biggest problem with those that rely on those numbers. Baseball isn't a religion and no stat is dogma. I'm not saying Hart is a better offensive player than Fielder. Fielder rarely faces anything but left handed pitchers after the 6th inning. Teams pay extra special attention game planning vs. Fielder. But it's clear that Hart has produced more than Fielder has in 2010. No made up stat convinces me otherwise. Well we aren't going to agree on this since I have noticed we seem to have fairly differing fundamental views on the game of baseball. In my mind Prince is a better offensive and defensive player than Hart and on offense it isn't even close. I value OBP more than SLG (hence my use of WOBA in this case), especially when the majority of Hart's slugging is coming from a fluky and unmaintainable amount of HRs/FB. I put a lot more stock in this than their AVG with RISP. So to answer your question, I do think Fielder has contributed more this year than Hart on offense. I do think that Hart's defense probably isn't as bad as I think it is, but its still rough and regressing. To be worse than Fielder really says something since he is pretty terrible himself.

Gamel, Mat. Extra money? Use it on a Weeks extension, trade for some SP prospects by taking on a salary dump trade. Lots of options.

Not to be picky, but Prince has been better at the plate and on defense than Hart as of this morning. Prince (.388 WOBA/-5.1FLD) Hart (.387 WOBA/-8.1FLD). While the numbers on this contract seem good I still am not sold on Hart. I see him as a 1.5-2 win player going forward with the potential to have a 3ish win year at some point in the contract. Is that worth around $9 mil per? Probably to most teams, but I think we could get similar value for those 3 years from a cheaper, cost controlled player who isn't a mental breakdown away from swinging at 55' sliders again.

Since the Brewers needed 2 starters and had under $10 mil to work with for their payroll, I am not sure what you realistically wanted Doug to do. They were able to get Davis on the cheap for 1 year, and went to 3 years with Wolf while only giving him $4 mil this year while they get Hall, Looper, and Weather's dead weight off the books. Also, the A's weren't signing Sheets for compensation picks. His contract actually specifies that if he was a TypeA, they wouldn't be allowed to offer him arbitration.

Thats awesome, but didn't she call it off since he wouldn't wear the pig cuff links?

So where is the nearest place I can buy some Molson Ice? My friend just emailed me a picture of him drinking some near Detroit to rub it in.

Do you know if they tour with Neko Case and Dan Bejar? I am seeing them in a week at Lollapalooza and hope its not just Newman. Speaking of which, anyone else going to Lolla? This is going to turn into a long post, but here is my rough schedule. Any suggestions on other bands to see? I don't plan on going much during the day since the lineup isn't as good as last year: Here is a link to the full lineup where you can switch days with the pulldown: http://2010.lollapalooza.com/events/2010/08/06/ My rough schedule: Fri: Drive By Truckers, New Pornos, Black Keys, The Strokes Sat: Metric, Spoon, Cut Copy, Phoenix (kind of a disapointing day) Sun: Erykah Badu, Wolfmother, Cypress Hill, Soundgarden (unfortunately going to have to miss The National)

"Inflation" has actually driven down the price for free agents since the 07/08 season.

You could always just order water...pretty much the same thing. While we are on the topic of failed expectations from the Miller/Coors merger, Molson Ice is my favorite beer. I could always get it when I went to school in upstate NY for 2 years. Moving back to the midwest it is almost impossible to find. I will ocasionally see Molson Golden, but its not the same. I wish the distributors would get their act togeather with Molson around here. I will also add that the "new" old Schlitz on tap is a nice touch for any bar in the area.