Crash2303

I want to take a step farther from a question explored in this forum here: http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=33479 I think it would be interesting to have a AAAA Traveling All-Star Team play against MLB teams during the regular season. before I get blasted for an idea I don't know if I even would advocate for, hear out the idea. IDEA * 25 man roster (with 15 guys on stand by) composed of anyone not on a MLB 25 man roster * the team would play 120 games (comparable to the minor league season) playing each MLB team once, in a 4 game series * the team would be a traveling team, meaning every game they would be the away team. * each player would be a rental property of the AAAA team, in which their home team could recall them at any time at need. BENEFITS * this team would give additional players major league experience and an extended opportunity for teams to see if their player can play at that level. it is hard for some players getting limited playing time- PH duties or relief opportunities on short, short leashes, potentially giving teams stronger assets and players opportunities to be "known" DOWNSIDE * inflated MLB statistics playing against this lower echelon team, but actually how is that bad? fans will love that. * this would essentially be an expansion team. but, instead of watering down the entire league with an extra guy or two on everyone's roster that doesn't get to play that much, who would normally be in the minors- teams can instead still hold those players, but give them actual playing time to see if they are better than what they've got. however, some cities would be upset at being passed over for a home team & the lost economic benefit that would come from that. ROSTER CRITERIA * not on another 25 man roster * must be 27 years old or over (the age limit is in place to ensure that "prospects" are not included on this team, because teams will prefer to develop them themselves) * each player would have an opportunity to decline the invitation * can't have more than 2 players from same team * ineligible if you have more than (positional players) 600 PA, (pitchers) 30 GS or 60 game appearances (these restrictions are to ensure that guys like Randy Wolf who have had extensive major league careers, but are now in the minors are not included, but just guys who "haven't had a chance" or are late bloomers) * because of the potential of high turnover rates, there would be 15 players put on "stand by" that could be 'called up' to fill spots as needed- similar to a 40 man roster. PRECEDENT & SUMMARY * this is not unprecedented. The NBA D-League used to have a team called the D-League Select, which was comprised of guys not on NBA rosters (mostly non-prospects) who could still play and compete in the league (see Brian Butch). The difference is that in the NBA- team success is heavily weighted to impact players, because of the fewer players on the court and the amount of usage they receive. in baseball, this is less of a factor as one player (outside of starting pitchers), have similarly weighted opportunities for impact. * I think you would see a few players make a mark and earn contributing MLB roster spots each season. In addition, I think this team would be competitive. it may not win a ton of games, but i think its range would be a 60-80 win team every year.

although, this team could be comprised of different players- for a plane of reference for 2015- here's an example of what a 25 man roster could look like: STARTERS AGE LEAGUE OPS RF Jose Martinez 27 PCL 1.024 C Manny Pina 28 INTL 0.840 CF Franklin Gutierrez 32 PCL 0.902 1B Matt Hague 29 INTL 0.885 LF Jerry Sands 27 INTL 0.948 3B Lonnie Chisenhall 27 INTL 0.750 2B Alex Castellanos 28 PCL 0.996 SS Danny Worth 29 PCL 0.863 BACKUP Nevin Ashley-C 30 PCL 0.806 Danny Dorn-1B/OF 30 PCL 1.062 Tommy Pham-CF/SS 27 PCL 0.901 Elian Herrera-U 30 PCL 0.904 Grant Green-U 27 PCL 0.786 STARTERS AGE LEAGUE ERA WHIP K/9 Hector Noesi 28 INTL 3.32 0.95 7.8 Tyler Lyons 27 PCL 3.14 1.24 9.1 Andy Ferguson 27 PCL 3.21 1.1 8.8 Kyle Drabek 27 INTL 3.47 1.3 5.5 Kyle Davies 31 INTL 3.3 1.26 5.8 RELIEVERS age LG ERA WHIP K/9 Dana Eveland 31 INTL 1.95 1.01 7.3 Louis Coleman 29 PCL 1.69 1.01 8.9 Ramon Troncoso 32 PCL 1.98 1.10 5.2 Nick Vincent 28 PCL 3.04 1.25 12.2 Radhames Liz 31 INTL 1.40 1.06 10.4 Jhan Martinez 27 INTL 1.92 1.10 9.6 Steve Johnson 27 INTL 2.30 1.08 11 (sorry for the formatting issues)

I've always had a soft spot for the AAAA player- especially guys who dominate AAA, but never really get a fair/extended opportunity in the show. each year, it seems there are guys that break open as late bloomers or have 1-3 success in the majors around their late prime years like Brian LaHair. I wonder if a whole team of these guys were fielded against major league competition, how competitive would they be. your thoughts?

yes, cool to see Lopez get some love at #2 and that Coulter is still respected enough to be in the top 10. agree a little odd that clark is above Phillips, but agree with YoungGeezy1 that Hader not in the top 10 is the biggest surprise.

To get the conversation going- here are some guys I believe are earmarked to take a big leap next year- some coming off injuries, others had a hot 2nd half that seem primed to rise: * Cody ponce - just seems so advanced- next year is when he's going to start making some top minor league prospect lists * Demi orimoloye - offseason action has scouts raving about approach and potential * Carlos leal - with only one full season of action at catcher- he should be primed for another big step * Trent clark - he'll launch himself in the top echelon of prospects next year with his advanced hitting ability * Gilbert lara - was a bit overmatched for his age last season- his production will start matching his huge talent next year * Yhonathan barrios - similar with Leal, barrios is relatively new to pitching and will only get better and better with more action * Monte Harrison - injury cut short an "I get it" moment last season and i expect that to continue this coming year- putting him consistently in the top 100 lists * Jake Gatewood - seemed to begin to figure out advanced pitching. his power potential started shining through with his XBH * Jay Feliciano - scouts were impressed with his performance in DSL and will not be surprised to see that production come stateside and go from prospect obscurity to people's radars * Luis Sardinas - somewhat overlooked, because of reaching MLB at such a young age. next year he'll be 23 (still young for the majors- Yadiel Rivera is a year older and performed shabbily in Colorado) with 2 partial seasons in the majors under his belt. expect him to compete for a starting job and remind people of his incredible potential. * Adrian houser - already the hot pick who has advanced his stock tremendously since August. with his makeup, i see it as an upwards trend. * Dustin houle - coming off of injuries that limited his playing time the last couple seasons, he is primed to continue where he left off and prove that 2015 was no fluke, climbing him up the brewer prospect ladder * David Denson - with his personal issues released, he is more free to crush home runs and regain the prospect excitement that captured fans during his rookie year * Miguel diaz - injuries have prevented him from being a top 25 brewer prospect. but, being healthy next season and with his fastball working in the mid-90s, he should reward those who continued to have him as a top brewers prospect. * Tyrone Perry - big time power and patience at the plate. will ascend up our prospect charts as much as he's ascended up the weight scale this past year- which is saying a lot. * Jon olczak - love this kid. great numbers this past season- under the radar late round talent who has the pitching maturity to quickly rise up the ranks drawing much more attendtion. * Tucker Neuhaus - first round talent, made contact well last season, expect power to increase a bit and ready for a breakout year * Tyrone taylor - status dropped this past season with mediocre production at Biloxi, but was young for his level, yet still held his own and still holds the same athletic potential that caused the brewers to draft him in the 2nd round- if he repeats in AA or is at hitter friendly Colorado- i expect him to break out offensively showing gap power. * Kyle wren - potential is there. with a second go round at Colorado- he'll start putting himself in the conversation surrounding the crowded upper level OFers. * Damien magnifico - high 90s fastball- has improved each season and expect him to challenge for a bullpen spot at some point in 2016 * Carlos belonis- brewer scouts have liked his potential ever since he signed for $550K in the DSL. not on many people's top prospect lists, but really came on late last season and i see that running over into next season. * Carlos luna - put up Gian Rizzo numbers in DSL. this season he'll prove that they weren't a fluke when he repeats them stateside. * Yosmer leal - there's a reason the brewers offered him $370K to play for them, because he's young with attractive potential. but, an injury sidelined him all of last year. this year, he'll have the ability to show off his stuff and take a big developmental leap. * Wei-chung wang - its a wonder what a little kick in the butt can do for some people. Wang, who didn't really earn a spot with the big league team in 2014, nor his 40 man roster spot in 2015, finally had to fight last season after being removed from the 40 man. and has been dominant ever since. it will be interested to see what happens in this year's Rule V draft, but if he remains with the crew- expect him to justify the reason we picked him up in the first place. * Angel ventura - under the radar swingman. has flourished in both roles. next year is the year he says to the world- "hey, look at me!" * Jed Bradley - big splits differentials! very effective against LHH, is atrocious against RHH. they haven't really used him as a LOOGY yet though, trying to improve his ability to pitch against righties. i am doubtful he'll figure it out, but i think once they start utilizing him as a LOOGY his numbers are going to be awesome, tempting the Brewers to test him out in that fashion at the major league level. * Jacob Barnes- began this season as a mediocre swingman. will end next season pushing for a major league bullpen spot. * Kodi Medeiros - 1st rounder, obviously great stuff, and performed well at 19 in A-ball. yet, i don't see him on many national lists. a repeat performance next season at A+ will make believers out of national listmakers. and in pitcher friendly, Brevard County- should do well there. * Gentry fortuno - began last season at 17 years old and did more than hold his own as a later round draft pick. showed mature pitching ability and with his age should put himself in prospect land next season. * Martin viramontes - not a very good year last year, but one cannot deny his awesome arsenal. next year he puts it all together for a make or break year. * Quintin torres-costa - was he just old for the level last year or is he really as K-worthy as his stats suggest. next year he'll show off why he's been consistently making bats miss since HS and spite the other teams that let him fall so far in the draft. * Michael Petersen - did superb in his limited action last season as a late sign, which caused him to not be noticed by many. i expect that will change next year. * Jordan desguin- really like him- and think that next year, like Petersen, is going to start people talking about him with more exposure. * Joan de la cruz- missed last season due to injury. but, was on the cusp of prospect status after a solid year in DSL. good stuff, should rise up the brewer prospect ranks this year. * Nelson hernandez- was a 16 year old sign. has shown flashes of potential. next year that potential will show more consistently.

Who is going to take the biggest leap next season? Hopefully most players will improve and guys like Arcia are sure to solidify their prospect stock, but he is already rated highly. So what I mean to ask is who do you think is going to ascend the most up the prospect ranks next year- from now until the end of the 2016 season.

I'm not saying he needs to permanently switch positions due to the current OF logjam, I'm saying at some point, I think it would behoove Coulter's value to create more positional flexibility. there's little reason to restrict him to OF, when he is athletic enough to possibly add 1B (or even 3B) to his defensive arsenal. aka what they have done with Jason Rogers.

With Phillips, Santiago, Clark, Harrison, Reed, Roache vying for future OF positions, in addition to Braun & Davis, its going to be tight competition for Coulter. I hope the Brewers start experimenting with Coulter at 1B & 3B. even if Braun eventually moves to first or we receive a corner infielder in a trade, at this point, I think versatility would only benefit Coulter reaching and staying in the bigs, provided his bat continues to progress. Has anyone heard if the crew will plan on training him at any other positions this season?

I don't see any strong indicators that this year is a trend for Garza, but rather an "off year" that many players seem to have in baseball from time to time. it is crazy the over reaction fans have to these types of seasons from consistent vets. He'll be 32 for the entire next season, which although no longer "young", it by no means suggests a steep or sudden decline due to age (aka Lohse) or significant injuries. and his pitch velocities were pretty consistent with previous years, especially 2014. he just wasn't locating as well. He has consistently been a quality (though oft injured) middle rotation starter for the past 8 seasons. here are his ERAs in recent years: 2011- 3.32 2012- 3.91 2013- 3.82 2014- 3.64 2015- 5.63 It is asinine to release him at this point and still be paying him. so, you start him off the year next year, hope he rebounds and chances seem likely that he will, and then dish him hopefully at the trade deadline or at the end of the season for what you can get. 2017 is a different story, however, that we'll be in a place to possibly compete again for a playoff spot, and we'll have young pitchers "pushing" him out of the rotation by then, at which point, we'd almost certainly have to unload him regardless of what we'd get for him.

what- no Axford, Lawrie, Henderson or Kottaras?

1 Orlando Arcia 2 Brett Phillips 3 Trenton Clark 4 Jorge Lopez 5 Josh Hader 6 Gilbert Lara 7 Kodi Medeiros 8 Tyrone Taylor 9 Monte Harrison 10 Cody Ponce 11 Devin Williams 12 Clint Coulter 13 Marcos Diplan 14 Nathan Kirby 15 Zach Davies 16 Demi Orimoloye 17 Michael Reed 18 Victor Roache 19 Jacob Gatewood 20 Tyler Cravy 21 Tyler Wagner 22 Ariel Pena 23 David Denson 24 Joantgel Segovia 25 Taylor Williams Apologies to: Cy Sneed Damien Magnifico Jorge Ortega Wei-Chung Wang Adrian Houser Tucker Neuhaus Yadiel Rivera Nick Ramirez Yhonathan Barrios Carlos Leal

let's go Oakland!

LuCroy will only be 29 entering next year- still within his prime window. his defense alone, when including pitch-framing, makes him one of the most valuable players in baseball according to that ESPN article last spring- http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12492794/jonathan-lucroy-needs-raise

does anyone have any info as to when we will find out what the return will be on Cotts?

to decide whether or not to trade someone is obviously dependent on the value returned. so to help make the trade value of our assets more tangible, I've found comparable trades in the past 2 seasons that might reflect what we'd get on a return investment to help decide if/who we should trade. another factor is "when"- so I've included a timeline on when the trade would need to happen to have a similar return. I've also included a cumulative avg prospect rank at the time of the trade. Below includes our current top five 'speculative' trade assets- some included as a package to reflect the comparable trade: 1) Jonathan LuCroy & Wily Peralta package- [2016 trade deadline] Comparable Trade: Gomez/Fiers (netted Santana-#82, Phillips-#29, Hader-#84, Houser- three top 100 prospects) Qualification: EVEN- Peralta has a higher ceiling than Fiers, but Fiers has one more year of team control. 2) Jean Segura & Scooter Gennett [2018 offseason] Comparable Trade: Zobrist/Escobar (netted Daniel Robertson-#66 & Boog Powell jr) Qualification: OVER- both of the crew's players have higher ceilings than the A's infielders did at this time. in addition, both will most likely be traded before the 2018 offseason, making their contract length longer and more team friendly. 3) Adam Lind - [2015 offseason] Comparable Trade: Brandon Moss (netted Rob Kaminsky -#62) Qualification: EQUAL- 1.5 years of Moss is prob similar to 1 year of Lind NET RETURN Five, top 100 prospects! including one top 30 prospect and two other prospects who expect to reach the majors as contributors. and again, it is not unreasonable to think of this as a minimum return- that we could do better than this. especially too if we're able to get anything from other trade speculative assets like K-Rod, Garza not to mention guys not mentioned here like Braun & K. Davis. We're going to be Loaded!

perhaps, but I'd guess that that package should be at least as attractive as the Gomez/Fiers trade which netted Hader, Houser, Phillips, & Santana (three top 100 upper level prospects). and if LuCroy & Peralta can rebound to even a little of what they were last season, and really I think it is much more likely that they do- it could potentially be even more valuable. Both have had injury riddled seasons, but nothing that would raise a red flag. Peralta will be entering into just his 4th pro season and his prime while LuCroy has already rebounded from his injuries earlier in the year with a great 2nd half .820 OPS.

another optimistic thought- in addition from all the young, upper level talent we should be able to acquire from the ten players mentioned above, that should launch us to contention in 2018, we should have good draft positions the next two years to supplement the lower levels with the already premier lower level prospects like Ponce, Kirby, Diplan, Clark, Harrison, Gatewood, Orimoloye, Lara, Mederios, Coulter that can be the next wave to come up around the 2020 season to replace some of the guys we'll be phasing out then and replenishing again. It seems a quite realistic future that we should have a consistent six year contending window from at least 2018-2024. With this view- it feels good to be a Brewers fan

in fact, excluding this season, we have ten players who are free agents or not part of future plans before the beginning of the 2018 season when we are ready to seriously compete. assuming we trade them all instead of holding on to them there is no reason to think that between some package of these ten players & possible extra throw-ins, we shouldn't be able to trade for upper level young talent to fill our holes at 3B, C, & ace pitcher and then some. here is the list of the ten in order of their current subjective trade value that should not be on the team to begin the 2018 season: 1) Jonathan LuCroy (FA 2017) - trade either at the deadline next year or next offseason- gives him a little time to re-establish elite value & develop young pitchers. 2) Wily Peralta (FA 2018) - trade as soon as (if) he rebounds 3) Jean Segura (FA 2018) - give him at least one more half season- hope he rebounds- can't forsee him lowering his value more than it is now. 4) Scooter Gennett (FA 2019)- see Segura 5) Adam Lind (FA 2016) - trade this offseason for max. value- there is little to be gained by keeping him next year. 6) Matt Garza (FA 2018) - pray that he has a good start rebounding back to career norms, but regardless trade him by the deadline next year- not on team in 2017 7) Martin Maldonado (FA 2018) - keep until our young catching prospect we pick up in a trade is ready to take over, even if it means holding Maldy until end of 2018. 8) K-Rod (FA 2016) - trade this offseason! no place for him next year- do not pull a trevor Hoffman. 9) Logan Schafer (FA 2018) - anything you can get for him is a plus 10) Brandon Kintzler (FA 2017) - see Schafer EXTRA TRADE ASSET VARIABLES: 1) Ryan Braun & Khris Davis- unless Braun moves to 1B before the start of 2017 season, there will be no place for one of them in the OF (due to Phillips/Santana). If Braun does move to 1B, then I am in favor of keeping both of them until they are being pushed out by someone behind them- otherwise, I see no need to trade either of them, as they both could prove to be important pieces of the 2018 & 2019 contending teams. 2) Jason Rogers, Shane Peterson, Hernan Perez- either of these guys might have opportunities next season to see ABs & have a good year, but none of them are part of the long-term plan and thus could net additional assets. 3) back of bullpen logjam- beginning in 2017 we'll have too many pitchers knocking down the MLB door than we have spots for and some of them will be additional trade assets to supplement the lower minors or help bring in key pieces.

at first I felt we should wait to see if we're in contention in 2017 between unloading LuCroy, but now I feel that whatever competitive team that we'll have in 2017 will pale in comparison to top level prospects that we could receive by trading LuCroy before the start of 2017 that will set us up for big time contention beginning in 2018. In addition, I now feel the same towards Wily Peralta, who becomes a free agent after the 2018 season unless resigned to a big extension. we have other pitchers of equal caliber who will be needing a roster spot (ie. Hader & Lopez). so packaged with LuCroy at least before the start of 2017 a contending team would receive 1+ year of LuCroy & 2+ years of Peralta. this should bring back quite a haul.

so glad to see the young kids do well, but if they keep playing this well they might knock us out of a top 6 pick next year. w/ 4 games left, looks like we'll prob be between #5-7- here's hoping for pick 5. the last time we drafted there, Ryan Braun. https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F00EC371C52B73A7!123&app=Excel Here is an interesting study done over 17 years from 1990-2006 analyzing draft results. it looks like the top 4 picks have a significant higher likelihood of finding an impact player. I wish this person continued their data at least through 2010, to account for more recent drafting philosophy patterns. either way- the higher you draft- the more players you have to make a mistake on- lol.

I think you let Rogers start out next season as the starting 1B, he has played well enough for the Crew to give him an extended look next year and see what they have in him. I think keeping Shane Peterson as our 4/5 OF makes sense, because he is a left-handed bat who can platoon with Rogers (if need be) at 1B. furthermore, if by June Rogers has shown that September was a flash in the pan, we can move LuCroy over to 1B and keep Maldy/(Weisenburger/Centeno/Ashley) at catcher.

FWIW- Matt Dominguez was awarded a gold glove as the best defensive 3B in the minors this year....along w/ Arcia at SS. http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150928&content_id=152061754&fext=.jsp&vkey=pr_milb&sid=milb

FWIW- here are the succeeding moves I would do for the following offseason in 2016-2017, because they tie in directly to the plan surrounding the moves I'd make this offseason: 1) Trade other half of Segura (2018FA)/Gennett(2019FA) for prospect and bring up Orlando Arcia (after 2 weeks) 2) move Braun to 1B, which frees up OF for combo (5) of K.Davis, Santiago, Phillips, Reed, Taylor, Peterson, Wren, Roache 3) trade/release Rogers & Guez- as there would be no place for either. and because we kept them in 2016, if they had nice years- we could trade them for prospects. 2017 TRADE DEADLINE 1) Trade Jonathan LuCroy (last yr) if Brewers are not in contention, but regardless- I wouldn't resign him. Hopefully between the unloading of Gennett, Segura, Garza, K-Rod, & Lind, and other minor pieces, we'll be able to acquire both a future catcher and third baseman.

for my 2 cents, I would like to see them do the following: 1) Trade Adam Lind & K-Rod (ideally for high level top tier 3B prospect) 2) Keep Matt Garza and hope he rebounds to boost his trade value- and flip him him regardless at the trade deadline next summer. 3) keep Braun in OF for one more season. this will allow the brewers to see what they have in Jason Rogers-1B, Shane Peterson-1B/5thOF 4) keep Khris Davis to give Phillips, Roache, Wren, Reed, & Taylor time to develop in the minors, and see if he breaks out next year. 5) Keep Santana starting in CF, but keep Peterson & Guez who can play their too, when Braun inevitably gets hurt. 6) Keep Herrera & Perez for roster flexibility and to see what you have in Perez and to allow Rivera & Arcia to develop in AAA 2016 TRADE DEADLINE 1) Trade Matt Garza 2) Trade wither Gennett or Segura and bring up Yadiel Rivera and a young pitcher VISUAL 2016 ROSTER SS- Jean Segura [trade at deadline or Gennett] C- Jonathan LuCroy / Martin Maldonado RF- Ryan Braun / Shane Peterson-1B/OF CF- Domingo Santana / Ben Guez-OF LF- Khris Davis 1B- Jason Rogers 3B- Hernan Perez / Elian Herrera-UI 2B- Scooter Gennett / Luis Sardinas-UI ------------------------ SP- Jimmy Nelson SP- Wily Peralta SP- Taylor Jungmann SP- Matt Garza [trade at deadline] SP- Zach Davies ------------------------- RP- Corey Knebel RP- Will Smith RP- Michael Blazek RP- Jeremy Jeffress RP- Tyler Thornburg RP- David Goforth RP- Ariel Pena AAA trade callus- Yadiel Rivera & Tyler Cravy

would you put fields as a better prospect than Kyle Wren? both LH and both 24, both light hitting CFs with similar numbers at each spot. just at a stat glance, it looks like Wren is faster with higher BAs and Fields is more patient with a bit more power. where would he rank in your brewers prospect rankings?