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TuesdaysWithRillo

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Everything posted by TuesdaysWithRillo

  1. TuesdaysWithRillo
    How about doing a similar study on batting average or OPS with RISP? That might be a better indicator.
  2. TuesdaysWithRillo
    That's not true. Counsell just doesn't have value as an everyday player. The reason we got Durham was becuase of Weeks, not Counsell. Counsell has a lot of value as a defensive sub and that's exactly what he's doing when he plays 3B every once in a while. I do think Branyan should be playing for the most part against RHP as I stated earlier, but starting Counsell here and there has its benefits. Especially in a hitters park like Cincinatti where we are going to be able to score runs with him in the lineup anyways, and of course we did so it was a smart move by Yost to go with defense when he was betting on the rest of the offense scoring a lot of runs in Great American Ballpark.
  3. TuesdaysWithRillo
    I really like the 41% odds at the Wild Card. I think we are in a better position right now than we were in last year when it comes to our playoff chances because we don't have the pressure of being in first place and we still even have a realistic shot at the division with 6 games remaining against the Scrubs. We are also playing better baseball with the exception to one bad series to the Cubs where we basically choked. Getting swept by the Cubs might not be all that bad. Maybe the Brewers will gain some experience from it and play a lot better against them in the coming games. We will see.
  4. TuesdaysWithRillo
    Too bad we haven't gotten that over the span of his career. I could see him being rated as an average defender, but I would doubt that he's any higher than that. All this being said, Yost is probably just giving Counsell a good amount of AB's because he wants to send a message that he's still a big part of this team and over time, Branyan will probably get a lot more starts at 3B than Counsell will in the remaining games so this discussion is probably moot. I don't mind what Yost is doing here either because you have to keep your bench sharp and it's not like Counsell is costing us games either. I think he has helped us more than hurt us so far in his limited appearances at 3B.
  5. TuesdaysWithRillo
    Does anyone have the updated playoff odds for the Brewers?
  6. TuesdaysWithRillo
    Does anyone have any statistics on Branyan's range because from observations it doesn't seem like he can make the play on bunts as well as Hall or Counsell can when charging the ball and also it doesn't seem like he has as good of lateral range either.
  7. TuesdaysWithRillo
    So below average defense and striking out a GaZillion times doesn't bother you?
  8. TuesdaysWithRillo
    That's not what it is because Branyan has had some critical home runs in his time this year with the Brewers with the one to tie the Twins game at Miller Park and the one to tie the Cubs game at Miller Park coming to mind. Yost is simply going with defense here and keeping Branyan as his lefty power bat off of the bench. Branyan is very useful to have late in games to come in and pinch hit for the pitcher whereas Counsell is not as useful unless the bases are loaded. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif But really, Yost doesn't deserve to get fried for going with defense and a contact hitter when his team is loaded with high power, high strikeout guys who can't play defense. It's good to mix and match those types of players. Granted, I hate Counsell in the 6 spot, but as a 1 or 2 hitter, he is very serviceable. It's also good to keep Counsell sharp and with the aquisition of Durham, he really doesn't have anymore opportunities to start at 2B. Is it really that big of a deal that Counsell gets a couple starts at 3B against a RHP when you can keep Branyan as your ace in the hole in the 9th inning to bat for the pitcher? To me, the answer to that question is no.
  9. TuesdaysWithRillo
    I've been posting on here for about 2 years or so and I'd have to say that I enjoy your posts the most, Russ, and I'm far from a stat guy. But even though I'm not a stat guy, I love to hear your perspective so I can see if some of my eyeballing that I've done is on par for the course. Whenever I see that you are the last poster on a thread, I always like to see your input. That might be pretty surprising to hear. I don't consider myself on the emotional attachment/vent side either. I don't think Weeks should be benched after a bad week or the same for a lot of other players. I think I'm somewhere in between, but I'll tell you that I enjoy the Stat people's posts a lot more than the vent posts because they add a lot of objectivity and value to the site. I've also been pretty controversial at times and have a couple strikes against me to show for it, but that's not to anyone's fault but my own. The moderators are overall doing a good job and I enjoy a lot of people's perspectives on the site.
  10. TuesdaysWithRillo
    It might have to come down to Suppan starting Game 1 if we end up in a Regular Season Tie with one of the Wild Card teams. I believe it then goes into a one game playoff where we'd go with our best pitcher possible which would make him not available in Game 1. I just want to see this team in the playoffs and then I'll take my chances from there. If I had to choose between Parra and Suppan for the #3 starter I'd choose Suppan right now based on these 2 factors: 1) Playoff Experience and past success 2) Parra's innings limit Parra is going to be very important for the Brewers in 2009 and the less jeopardy we put on his arm, the better. I wouldn't mind Parra being the 4th starter in the playoffs though, but we'd probably just go with C.C. or Sheets on 3 days rest because they are workhorses.
  11. TuesdaysWithRillo
    Those are some good numbers put into the argument, but one flaw in that is you are using errors and we all know how reliable the error stat is in general. If a Double Play isn't turned because of a dropped ball by the 1B, that is not an error and a lot of plays are ruled as infield hits where they could have been outs. There is definitely a lot of substance to your argument though and I mostly agree with it. I did enjoy Prince's web gem against the Braves on Sunday where he leaped up and caught the ball and doubled up the guy at 2B, so he has shown he can make some plays. I think concentration and focus plays a lot into Prince's defense as well. If he puts the work in, his defense can be average, but he doesn't have the talent or body type to be able to play good defense with a lot less effort like some guys do like Derrek Lee and others. Prince makes 1B look hard, while guys like Lee and Helton make it look easy. Prince is going to be a DH for an AL team in the very near future anyways, but he has been serviceable defensively, at least in his short stint for the Brewers.
  12. TuesdaysWithRillo
    At least both of them can't win! This is a critical series against Washington so we can gain ground on one of the teams. If we drop the ball in this series, it's going to be a severe blow.
  13. TuesdaysWithRillo
    Maybe we can use this deal as a barometer for signing Sheets in the offseason, afterall, Haren and Sheets are the same calibur of pitchers.
  14. TuesdaysWithRillo
    Counsell did prevent 2 runs yesterday by making that diving stab at 3B, which is just as good as a 2 run home run. Also, he's one of the few Brewers that doesn't strike out at an enormous rate. He moves runners over when they get on base and puts the ball in play. That said, I'd still go with Branyan, but not all is bad with Counsell starting at 3B.
  15. TuesdaysWithRillo
    Can we change the name of this thread to "The Overreaction Thread"? Bill Schroeder said himself that this won't be a factor in the Brewers success this year and so did Jeff Cirillo. It could even be a good thing to get things turned around.
  16. TuesdaysWithRillo
    That is definitely one scenario, but I'm going to disagree with you that it is the only one unless you know something I don't about how to solve our pitching situation in 2009. So if you think Gamel will remain at 3B, do you think Prince will still be a Brewer next year? And if so, how do you see our starting rotation stacking up in 2009?
  17. TuesdaysWithRillo
    So Jason Kendall has one bad series, and that makes him bad defensively? Have that person check out the Caught Stealing percentages this season and have him report back to you.
  18. TuesdaysWithRillo
    Sheets is also averaging 3.2 runs per game of support from his offense in his last 5 starts so he's not getting much help either.
  19. TuesdaysWithRillo
    I've never had the pleasure of seeing Gamel play 3B in Huntsville, but I think we have 2 options here. 1) Let Gamel's bat play and start him at 1B in 2009 while getting value in a Prince trade 2) Let Gamel work out his defense in 2009 in Nashville and hope that he can iron out his defense. Option 1 is great for the short term and would work out just fine if Gamel turns out to be a 900 OPS player. If Gamel is an 800 OPS player over the span of his 6+ years with the Crew, then he's nothing more than an average 1B depending on how his defense would be. Option 2 is great for the long term ONLY if it works out. Otherwise we let Gamel get a year older, while not having him play as a Milwaukee Brewer. We would still control him for 6 years though so that's not a horrible result. If I were Doug Melvin, I'd go with Option 1 because we need pitching next year and Prince is our best chance at that. If we can find pitching through other sources or miraculously sign C.C. or Sheets to a long term contract, we might have the flexibility to keep Prince for a few more years and let Gamel iron out his defense. I do think either decision will probably work out and it might be a win-win situation because a bat like that can play anywhere if he keeps his mashing up.
  20. TuesdaysWithRillo
    I'd make an offer to Jon Garland. He would be a nice addition to next year's team.
  21. TuesdaysWithRillo
    Yay. Some more gimme wins for the Cubs.
  22. TuesdaysWithRillo
    Yay. Some more gimme wins for the Cubs.
  23. TuesdaysWithRillo
    The fact that we actually have expectations makes it not as bad as we all think.
  24. TuesdaysWithRillo
    How about 5 runs? Can we freak out yet?
  25. TuesdaysWithRillo
    I think people have the right to freak out when a sweep by the Cubs is looming.
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