Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

LouisEly

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    12,041

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    14

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. LouisEly
    Not a good outing for Davies, and while Nick Ramirez didn't help in relief Davies walked 5 in 3.2 innings. Have to think that he's pretty close to being shut down for the year as his rehab outings have not gone well. Good to see Weston Wilson back in the lineup picking up where he left off. Harber looking sharp in his 2nd AA start. Two walks and a solo HR, but 8 Ks and only 3 hits in 5 IP.
  2. LouisEly
    A-ball and lower (A+, A, Helena, Arizona, DSL) makes up ~75% of all minor league headcount; eliminating the DSL brings it down to ~70%. Pitchers are about half of a team's roster, so if my math is right it should be ~35% of all prospects with OFPs >40 if distributed evenly. Thus the math supports that pitching at the lower levels is light at best from a quantity standpoint; from a quality standpoint, that none are higher than #20 in the poll (Lemons) suggests a lack of quality as well.
  3. LouisEly
    Thompson was a top-100 propsect pre-2015 and pre-2016 because in 2014 he put up a 3.12 ERA, 1.234 WHIP, and 9 K/9 as a 20-year-old across 130 innings n A+ and AA; being only 20 there was the proverbial assumption of progression. But the opposite happened - his K rate has been dropping ever since, going down to 7.6 in 2015, 6.0 in AAA in 2016, 6.8 in AAA in 2017. It has rebounded this year, but so have the walks - 9.4 K/9 in AAA, but 5.0 BB/9 (6.1 BB/9 in the majors). That's why he was available for cash.
  4. LouisEly
    How the hell are you digging up these threads from 12 years ago?
  5. LouisEly
    Strongly disagree. I don't see any on your list until #23 (Ashby), and only 15 of your top 66 are pitchers at A-ball or below with three of those you designated as relief pitchers (Bickford, Beckman, Andrews). Who exactly are they?
  6. LouisEly
    The lower levels of the minors are definitely barren for pitching, but the Brewers have some assets to trade to help replenish the farm system. Next year the Brewers have Nelson, Anderson, Chacin, Davies, Guerra, Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff, and Houser competing for starting spots with Brown and Supak another year away. They could trade two of Anderson/Chacin/Guerra and get a decent prospect haul in return and still have seven guys competing with two more in AAA. Say they traded Anderson and Guerra, the rotation could still look like Nelson/Chacin/Davies/Burnes/Woodruff with Houser as a swingman/long relief and have Peralta/Brown/Supak in AAA.
  7. LouisEly
    The hilarious thing is that Archer was a Cub and a top-100 prospect, but they traded him to Tampa for... Matt Garza. You know, so the Cubs could go 71-91 in 2011 and 61-101 in 2012.
  8. LouisEly
    Gotta admit... Rob Henry was a bit of a head-scratcher.
  9. LouisEly
    In addition to Braden Webb, fellow RHP Conor Harber promoted from Carolina to Biloxi. 1B Pat McInerney placed on Carolina’s DL. Harber's walks/9 and K/9 by month (small sample alert): April - 7.23, 11.6 May - 4.28, 7.3 June - 3.66, 3.6 July - 3.45, 6.6 August (11.2 IP) - 0.00, 10.0 As a starter - 2.95 Trend is going in the right direction, and it speaks to his development process this year and shows why he earned the promotion.
  10. LouisEly
    The biggest surprise for me among those who did not get one vote was Conor Harber. Cumulative line for 2018 is 2.11 ERA, 102 IP, 73 H, 45 BB, 84 K, only 4 HR. Not a top-10 guy by any stretch of the imagination, walks definitely high but his BB rate and WHIP have been decreasing every month and I thought those numbers would sneak him in the back end of a few lists. I had him at #29. I definitely give more weight to guys closer to the majors, even if it's a likely bench/reliever role. Seen too many HS draft picks and Latin American signings not even make AA. Gray, Bello, Lemons, Carlos Rodriguez, Larry Ernesto, E. Fernandez, Jaraba, Garcia... some of those guys will flame out in A-ball. Biggest jumps next year - Braden Webb and Conor Harber.
  11. LouisEly
    Pythagorean has plenty of flawed assumptions. It assumes that each team is putting out it's best lineup every inning, and that's not the case. When a team is up or down significantly late in the game they don't have their best lineup on the field, and they certainly don't when they have a position player pitching (which sometimes works, and sometimes results in giving up 21 runs in a game). That affects total runs scored, which affects +/-. It also does not take into account the difference in talent between starters and reserves, or between #1-2 starters and #4-5 starters. For example, a team can have four great starting pitchers but have a really bad 5th starter - if the 5th starter gets blown out or frequently pitches poorly resulting in lopsided losses, then that will affect the +/- of runs scored even though they will still win a lot of games. Teams don't care if they win by one run or ten runs, they care if they win and will manage so that they win the most number of games over the course of a long 162-game season and not score/prevent the maximum number of runs every inning of every game.
  12. LouisEly
    What I wonder is how you quantify the value of creating an additional roster spot because someone like him can backup multiple positions. Is it simply the value of that additional player, or is it the cumulative value of that position group by having additional players (such as an additional bullpen arm, keeping the rest of the bullpen fresher)?
  13. LouisEly
    Wasted no time starting Harber, doing good through three innings. Edit: 6.2 IP, 6 H, 0 BB, 6 K I haven't seen him pitch, but I read a scouting report last year that said he had an elite spin rate. Might be the best - and only - starting pitcher to come out of the 2015 draft (race between Eric Hanhold, 6th round, Jon Perrin, 27th round, and QT-C, 35th round, to be the first players from that draft to make the majors - who had that?). Woodruff walked the first three batters too... bad night to do that. Little different though when it's a starter than when it's the 9th and up two runs.
  14. LouisEly
    I didn't necessarily say Colorado Springs... Biloxi is a viable option, as is Appleton.
  15. LouisEly
    No, I think you can make a pretty strong case that Soria should have been up after the second walk. Yep, you make the mound visit so that your guy has more time to warm up. You don't get the guy up two pitches after the mound visit.
  16. LouisEly
    The Cubs gave up four to the Padres in the 9th a few days ago, five if you count the 8th and 9th. The Padres are confident and dialed in right now. I'm not suggesting they are stealing signs, but it seems like they know what's coming. They have scouted well, and the Brewers need to change up how they call pitches. That being said, when you are up two and your pitcher walks the first two guys, you get another guy up right away. Knebel has an option left, and they should send him down so that he can find his location and curveball. Only four of his 26 pitches were curveballs, three were to the leadoff hitter and two of those three went for strikes. They don't swing at fastballs out of the zone if they don't think a curveball could be coming.
  17. LouisEly
    TheJumpAround ironically was the first person to report his signing in the 2017 international signee thread. Keep in mind, Ozzie Albies signed fir $350K and Ronald Acuna, Jr., signed for $100K and they are/were All-Stars and Top-25 prospects. With 16-year-olds, it's an even bigger crapshoot than with high-schoolers.
  18. LouisEly
    Anyone on the 40-man roster as of 8/31 is eligible for the post-season roster. They don't have to be on the 25-man roster.
  19. LouisEly
    Agreed - it's unforgivable to run out of pitchers or pinch hitters in a playoff chase when you can expand rosters. I was hoping they'd use the two open roster spots for QTC and Ramirez because you could have a lot of lefty-righty matchup switches. But they chose to go with Lyles and Hernandez. RE: Hernandez - I know the Brewers are infatuated with spin rate, but he/Asher/Orf are the ones most likely to lose their spot to a 3rd catcher, elite pinch-runner, and another bullpen lefty.
  20. LouisEly
    Amazing, the Cubs can give up a lot of runs to bad teams too. Imagine that.
  21. LouisEly
    Fiers has struck out eight Dodgers through four innings without giving up a hit or a walk.
  22. LouisEly
    If 'buts' and 'ands' were pots and pans, we'd all be gourmet chefs.
  23. LouisEly
    Are the borderline pitches being called balls as much as it looks like on Gameday? On Gameday it looks like pitches that are catching plenty of the plate are being called balls.
  24. LouisEly
    The Padres are hot - they are feeling very comfortable and confident at the plate right now.
  25. LouisEly
    Braden Webb started that game and went 5 IP giving up 5 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K. That now becomes official, where that was not included in his stats prior to today. So now "officially" Webb has pitched on consecutive days - 11 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 13 K. Lowers his ERA from 4.20 after last night's game to 3.91 today.
×
×
  • Create New...