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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. LouisEly
    This is interesting, and something I do not remember at all. Probably because I was in high school and there was no internet. Although, could you imagine the conniption that people on this board would have if the Brewers signed a 40-year-old pitcher?
  2. LouisEly
    I heard a comment during the winter meetings, don't remember who said it and if it was a GM or an owner, but he said that "5 year contracts for pitchers don't turn out well". I think a lot of other GMs/owners are thinking that now, and that's why Darvish/Arrieta/Lynn/Cobb are still out there and the 2-year guys are getting deals.
  3. LouisEly
    Matt Garza had a WAR of -0.8 in Milwaukee, He had a good first season and not much there after. Riske was a much worse signing. Its just that he never really played his last 2 years here and its not as recent. But its not close. I'd argue Soup was a worse FA signing over Garza. This is why I didn't want the brewers to sign Arietta, because he would end up in the Soup / Lohse / Garza category. Chacin, no matter what he does here will not. Fangraphs has Garza as a +5.5 WAR over his four seasons here. Not sure what the difference is in how it's calculated.
  4. LouisEly
    Game, set, match
  5. LouisEly
    No, it was said many times that he was a leader in the clubhouse especially with the young guys last year and was one of the biggest pranksters/practical jokers in all of MLB. He did a lot to keep a loose clubhouse. Whenever they interviewed guys on TV in the dugout and you saw sunflower seeds, Double Bubble, etc., being tossed on them, it was Garza.
  6. LouisEly
    A bit misleading as HS picks from 2014 are not even required to be protected in the Rule 5 yet, much less expected to be in the majors. Really, this is relevant for three drafts - 2011-2013, with college picks from 2014 just breaking into the majors and top-10/1st round college picks at that (the Brewers invested in HS picks in 2014 - Medeiros, Gatewood, Harrison, Stokes, Yamamoto). Hell, Woodruff was drafted in 2014 and he's just breaking into the majors. I think a more relevant comparison would be 2009-2014; keeping in mind that 2009-2011 there was no bonus pool and in 2009 there was no draft pick compensation for unsigned picks, still giving significant advantages to teams willing to push the boundaries of the rules (Boston, Houston, Pittsburgh, etc.) by signing players for way over slot. The Brewers chose to be good corporate citizens because they needed the rules to change, thus they had to be "do as I do". Case in point, 2011 - if you rank players by signing bonuses, Jungmann and Bradley are actually in the 20's, not #12 and #15. But the Brewers had to draft guys who would sign close to recommended slot; they couldn't complain about being disadvantaged, then go out and give Josh Bell $5M to sign as a 2nd round pick.
  7. LouisEly
    To this day I am still convinced that if Revis hadn't gone the pick before that Revis would have been a Packer instead of Harrell.
  8. LouisEly
    Angels have nothing for prospects to swing this deal, not even an Arroyo. Cozart just cost money.
  9. LouisEly
    SF had by far the worst performance of any team at 3B last year; -3.5 Wins Above Average according to B-R.com Tampa was +0.8, so Longoria could represent a 4-win improvement. Add in a full year of MadBum (+3 wins), Cueto returning to 2016 form (+4 wins), replacing Matt Moore with Chris Stratton (+2/3 wins), and replacing Span (-1 WAR) with Keon Broxton (+2 WAR), and you could have a 17 win improvement. That being said, that only gets to 81 wins. But if they can replace Matt Cain with a premium FA SP (Lynn, Darvish, Arrietta, etc.), that could push their wins to mid-upper 80's, and we've seen what SF can do when they get in the playoffs and can shorten the rotation to MadBum, Cueto, Samardjzia, and said FA SP.
  10. LouisEly
    Took to the 36th post in the thread before Briggs pointed out he had a .353 BABIP on the road. People scream luck around here if someone's BABIP is more than .010 off of .300. That being said, his home BABIP was .204. His overall was .275, so I think the FIP of 4.26/xFIP of 4.54 seems pretty accurate and about what to expect. If that happens, with the reported contract (2/$16M) he could bring back a good prospect or two at the deadline. That being said, I think that Wilkerson could give them similar production for league minimum.
  11. LouisEly
    As of right now, GB is tied with LAC for the 15th worst record, but there are 13(!) teams with records between 8-6 and 6-8. Depending on how the last two games go, they could draft anywhere between 10th and 20th. Looking at Scout.com's rankings, if these match the Packers board (unlikely, but it's something to go with) then Harold Landry will probably not be available when they pick. Based on this ranking, my preferred picks, in order, would be: 1) Clelin Ferrell to play the elephant OLB position, or with a DC change could play DE in a 4-3 2) Josh Jackson - CB 3) Courtland Sutton could be the replacement for Adams if they think the concussions are too risky to sign long-term 4) If they don't believe in Spriggs (I think still too early), McGlinchey or Orlando Brown could lock down RT. (People wanted to run Allen Barbre out of town in 2009, but eight years later he's still in the league; same with Marshall Newhouse) Ridley and Kirk would need to put up blazing times in the speed drills, otherwise they are undersized slot receivers which can be had later in the draft. Nelson is intriguing, but TT doesn't draft guards early unless he is desperate (2006 - Colledge). Also, don't flip out if they don't go OLB in the first round. There's plenty of 2nd-4th round depth at OLB in this class (Hercules Mata'afa, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, Montez Sweat, Chase Winovich, Jeff Holland, Trent Harris, Ben Banogu, Anthony Winbush, Mat Boesen, Marquis Haynes).
  12. LouisEly
    Something else I was thinking about was if this is an indicator of putting Hader in the rotation. In the event that Hader is a starter and can't go deep into games, they will need someone to go multiple innings after him. Insert Gallardo as a long reliever; teams will have stacked the lineup with RHH against Hader, then bring in a multi-inning reliever for RHP-RHH matchups. There may be no intention of Gallardo as a starter; the role they envision might be long relief.
  13. LouisEly
    RB is about the last position that I would sign a FA. Jones could be special (Rodgers was raving about him after the preseason, and for good reason), Williams will be the next Starks, and you have the ideal 3rd down back in Montgomery. Remember when people were calling for Adams to be cut after his second season? It can take players a couple of seasons to get it. Give Spriggs some more time. Also agree that they need to see if it's the DC/scheme before investing a ton of money in the defense. Can't tell if it's talent or injuries at CB as they've been hurt so much. Never saw that Michael Clark (*pats self on back for calling him as a UDFA*) was added to the roster. Someone must have tried to sign him to their active roster. Now they have seven WRs on the active roster. Not sure what that means for Adams/Nelson/Cobb for 2018. Janis is one of the best special teams players in the league, and your 5th/6th WRs have to play special teams.
  14. LouisEly
    Would anyone have Gallardo's stats for the first time through a lineup over the last two years? Or the first inning or two of his games started? If he had success in those areas, they very well could have been targeting him as a bullpen arm rather than a starter. Courtesy of B-R.com 2017 1st PA as SP (198 PAs) - .925 OPS-A 2nd PA as SP (198 PAs) - .849 OPS-A 3rd PA as SP (121 PAs) - .763 OPS-A 1st PA as RP (45 PAs) - .584 OPS-A 2nd PA as RP (17 PAs) - .307 OPS-A 2016 1st PA as SP (206 PAs) - .835 OPS-A 2nd PA as SP (194 PAs) - .817 OPS-A 3rd PA as SP (119 PAs) - .776 OPS-A
  15. LouisEly
    Seth Beer ranked #75 on that list. If he's still available at the Brewers compensatory pick I'd be giddy. Not just the LH power, but walked almost twice as much as he struck out - 11.8% K rate, 21.5% BB rate. If you factor in HBP, his non-hit OBP was .263. That's pretty amazing. Just reading these one sentence write-ups, I'm gravitating towards Mike Vasil, Mason Denaburg, Ryan Weathers, and Anthony Siegler.
  16. LouisEly
    Adams and Cobb don't play the same position. Adams is a boundary receiver and Cobb plays the slot, sometimes lining up in the backfield. Cobb and Nelson play more of the same position.
  17. LouisEly
    I was referring to past tense and how the Yankees/Cubs/Red Sox "rebuilt" - by spending tons of money in the international market. Their rebuilding period was accelerated. The Red Sox have had two top-10 picks recently - with a World Series title sandwiched in between. The Yankees haven't had a top 10 pick since 1992. Those aren't rebuilds.
  18. LouisEly
    Hard to argue with this list. Overall, TT is good (not stellar, but very good) at drafting but his refusal to trade late round picks to shore up team needs has cost this team dearly. MM is not the problem.
  19. LouisEly
    What playmakers has Thompson drafted since Matthews? Their personnel stinks regardless of scheme. Mike Daniels, Nick Perry, and Blake Martinez. But yes, more are needed. It's harder to make plays when the scheme is tired and predictable. Plus Kevin King, Josh Jones, Kenny Clark, HaHa, Morgan Burnett, and the departed Casey Heyward, Micah Hyde. Randall is talented, but has been hurt and has struggled with the conversion from safety to corner. There's talent on that team. The issue is much more Capers than the talent. As for the difference between "difference makers" and "very good players", well, it's hard to get elite defenders when 2/3rds of the league drafts ahead of you for seven consecutive seasons.
  20. LouisEly
    Blake Lillis? He missed 2017 with injury, I think TJ.
  21. LouisEly
    You may have him confused with Nash Walters, their 3rd round pick from that year. Lindell was their 9th round pick. Walters might very well not make full season ball himself.
  22. LouisEly
    I never want Garza on this team again. I would have suspended him when he refused to pitch out the bullpen at the end of 2015. Instead the Brewers just sent him home and continued paying his $12 million a year salary. He's a piece of garbage. Let it go.
  23. LouisEly
    The NFL needs to do what college does and review "targeting" plays and eject players for it. That hit by Davis was illegal in three ways - helmet to helmet, launching himself, and blindside. It is as egregious of a violation of the rules as I've seen. And Davis does not get ejected?
  24. LouisEly
    If Wily Peralta can get a major league deal, Yo Gallardo can get a major league deal. Gallardo's deal is probably very similar to Peralta's; I'm guessing one year and around $1.75M with incentives, possible 2nd year club option with small buyout. That being said, I'd rather they have brought back Garza for that amount. Gallardo threw a lot of innings at a young age, and I think his DUI was the tip of the iceberg as far as his drinking, thus the dropoff in his late 20's. His velocity was up slightly, about 1.5-1.9 mph over 2016 depending on pitch type.
  25. LouisEly
    Dodgers clear a net $30M from their payroll. Excluding arb raises, they are now at $155M committed for 2018. Braves needed another starter and get two injury-risk ones and a utility player for $30M in contracts. Hopefully they got a bunch of cash from the Dodgers to do this, otherwise it's not a good deal on their end.
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